quinta-feira, 26 de novembro de 2015

It's the Demography, Stupid

It's the Demography, Stupid. The real reason the West is in danger of extinction. If we are demographically sound, then there is no amount of terrorism, no amount of barbarism, no amount of stupid decisions by politicians, that can destroy the Western Civilization. The romans were defeated by the germanic invasors, but eventually their larger numbers meant that the germans were absorved into the Portuguese, Spanish, French & Italian population and latin-speaking countries were reborn. Similarly China was conquered by the Manchus, but eventually the chinese were so many, that they completely absorved the Manchus leading to the next extinction of the Manchus themselves and their language solely by intermariage, while China was reborn. On the opposite side, Amerindians reproduced slowly due to their high death rate and were largely wiped out of most of the americas (excluding Bolivia and Peru). So if you are numerous, even a catastrophic military defeat can become a rebirth. If you are not, then... well, if you are not, then people in 100 years from now will write books trying to explain why you disappeared.

So let's apply this to Poland, and the proposed government plan of giving money so that people have more children. The current & future demographic pyramid of Poland, as well as amount of children in families, is:

The chart for 2050 shows that Poland will face severe loss of population during 2070-2080, tens of millions, and it will be extremely hard to replace them due to the low amount of woman in birth bearing age:
Compare with Afganistan which generates a huge number of refugees going to Europe:

How many children people currently have:

Worker to Pensionist ratio for the USA, note that the USA receives tons of young migrants. For countries such as Poland and Japan the ration will be much worse, more like 1.5 to 1 by 2050. Pensions will be insanely low.
Compare this with Nigeria:

And here is proof that the African population explosion has nothing to do with they all being farmers. The Africans explosion lives in slums, they are not rural!

And a real life demonstration of how a fertility of 2,07 takes no immediate effect, but instead due to the large inertia in demographics, it takes a lot of time to stabilize and fertility changes cannot change short term trends in population loss or gain:

Not to mention the islamic problem:

Back to Poland

The original proposal was 500zl for each child, except the first which would get 0zl. The program is insanely expensive, however, costing around 22 billion zlotes per year. So many proposals are circulating as to how to make it affordable, some going as far as cutting most people out and giving only to the very poor, which in my oppinion would make the program nearly useless in solving our demographical death.

I propose that we should make a huge effort to convince people to have 3 children, not merely 2:

1> 1000zl be given for families with 3+ children, regardless of income
2> For very poor families give temporary help, such as during the first 3 years after birth 500zl, and the permanent help only if they achieve our 3 children target. Give more money if they have even more children. Make it a business case for some people to be children factories to compensate the huge amount of childless people.
3> Make a campaign, something like "Save Poland, have 3 chilren, 2 is not enough! We are each time less", show charts, etc, ask Churches to talk about it. It costs almost nothing, and might be even more effective than the money.
4> Offer all kinds of technological solutions for people that cannot have chilren, if necessary go as far as using bangladeshi surrogate mothers to give birth! Pay them properly and it will be no problem to find woman in poor countries willing to help us survive. The government should finance this for free.

I'm afraid of recommending 4 children, although that would be really necessary from my calculations, since 4 might seam to people insanely high and unachievable, while 3 is quite reasonable. So let's stick to a 3 children target.

Calculated necessary effect to stop our demographical death:

Demographers say we need a 5% margin, we need 2.1 children per woman on average to break even. So let's target at least 2.15 to have at least a 2,5% extra safety margin. We need the 5% margin to compensate for deaths by car accidents (around 3 thousand per year), to compensate for deaths due to all kinds of illnesses, airplane accidents, murders, suicides, terrorist attacks, etc, etc.

Actually to compensate for emigration to western countries we would need something like 2,3 or more, to help compensate for the dying west and repopulate it with poles, but from my calculatings even 2,15 is extremely hard, so this is likely not realistic.

Nr of Children Poland 2015
Poland Target

Percent Sum Percent Sum

0 0,3 0 0,3 0
1 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,1
2 0,37 0,74 0 0
3 0,07 0,21 0,47 1,41
4 0 0 0,07 0,28
5 0,06 0,3 0 0

0,06 0,36


So currently our average is 1,45 children per woman. To get to our target 2,15 we need that:

1> I'll assume that the 30% childless cannot in any way be moved out of this state. I suppose that many will have all kinds of good reasons for not having children and will not be possible to move them to have children. I assume the following reasons:
1.1> Severe illness (think down, autism, paraplegy, etc)
1.2> Mental illness
1.3> is a hedonist that doesn't want to bother having children
1.4> is of Radical Environmentalist ideology, or pro-human extinction ideology
1.5> Couldn't find a proper mate
1.6> Celibacy
1.7> etc, etc, etc

2> EVERYONE that has currently 2 children should have 1 more child

3> Half the people that currently have 1 children would hear our call and have 3 children

4> Everyone having 3 or more children would have 1 more child

So, if the program as I proposed would be able to achieve this effect, it would be wonderful, although its highly unlikely. But if it could, I guess it would be worth, even if it would eventually cost 22 billions per year as more people having children would make for more people inside the program rules. No amount of money is too much when survival is at stake.

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