quarta-feira, 8 de junho de 2016

Why 500+ is better than expanding the same money elsewhere?

First we need to ask ourselves what is the greatest problem today in . What is the greatest problem in Poland? Is it:

a> Great risk of imminent Russian invasion to conquer the continent in a Blitzkrieg
or
b> The native population is dying out without any hope to fix the problem
?

I think that A is an imaginary problem without basis in reality, Russia has a military expenditure of like 3% of NATO total, it would be ridiculous to be defeated by an enemy over 20 times weaker, that's like Denmark invading alone Nazi Germany in 1939, besides the fact that there is no rational reason why Russia would attack at all, while B is the real problem. Please look at this chart:

http://www.demographics.at/images/growth-decline/WPP2015_Tot-Pop_Ethiopia-Egypt-Poland_1950-2100.gif



Poland is headed to 22 million people by 2100. Germans in Germany are decreasing by 400.000 per year. Official German Government projects this will increase to a drop of 700.000 germans every year in a few decades. That's like losing a Stalingrad battle every year. The same in every other country in Europe.

Natality is also dropping in the USA and Brazil, by the way, today the only countries in the west left with 2-3 children per woman being in spanish-speaking americas.

And this is not the end. The trend shows no sign of abading and if it is not stopped fast the long term trend is continuing until it will become trivial for islamists to pull out a new "conquest of the americas". Except that now we will be the indians with inferior population dynamics. It might be the case that in 200 years no-one will remember that Europe was Christian just like in 1800 no-one remembered that the americas were not Christian 300 years before and today noone remembers that Turkey was once a Christian country before 1100. A lot of attention is given to the refugees, but what really makes islamization a possible future is not the refugees themselves, no amount of european refugees could make Africa non-black because africans are simply too many and too fertile. What trully makes islamic refugees an existential threat is the weak fertility of europeans. If europeans had an african fertility the refugees would be absorved by the dynamic majority.

About the costs: PLN 20 billion per year look like a lot, but only if you ignore that today 3 people work to pay the retirement of every emeryt. But in 2050 1.5 people will work for every emeryt. That's a budget hole of over 200 billions per year alone. So the costs of not fixing the population drop, are much, much higher than the costs of trying to do something about it. And I don't see how F-16's will fix this budget hole in retirement accounts.

What I don't like about the program is that it's too little of an incentive IMHO to convince people with 2 children to have a 3rd one. I think that incentive for the 3rd child should be massive, pretty much making it a no-brainer decision. I don't see how the program will move the fertility numbers by 0,6 that we need. Maybe it will add 0,1 or something, far too little to fix the problem. Also lacking is a campaign with outdoors, etc, explaining this simple table to people:

Nr of Children
per woman
Poland 2015Poland Target

PercentPercent



030%30%
120%10%
237%0
37%47%
43%7%
53%3%
6
3%



Fertility1,452,1

30% of woman have zero children today and most likely will continue to have zero children regardless of what we do, so we need to move the vast majority of families (like 50% of all the woman) to 3 children in order to achieve the survival level of 2,1 children per woman.

The only good news lately on the topic is that we are importing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians per year, which pretty much gives Poland "time to think", but not much. Ukraine is experiencing it's own populational collapse so the source of Ukranians will dry out, it is not a long term solution. But is positive for Poland.

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