tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-88332513924872349042024-02-07T17:45:22.259-08:00Felipe's BlogFelipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.comBlogger100125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-55577153308864528692022-06-16T21:04:00.007-07:002023-01-08T00:22:07.522-08:00True Democracy's Privacy Policy<p>True Democracy is a simple game without login. It doesn't collect any user data at all. In the future we might add very simple statistics, for example about how many people play in a particular sub-section of the game. This statistics functionality will use stock Android APIs and will still not collect any tracking data about the users. In the future if we provide a multiplayer option, we would need to collect user logins and passwords.<br /><br />I am writing this because it is now mandatory for Android apps.<br /><br />Update on 8th January 2023: It turns out that I had to update the data privacy section for the app solely because I use Google Mobile Ads. Every single data marked there as collected is solely collected by Google Mobile Ads, not directly by the game.</p>Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-85689442852914141792016-06-22T03:44:00.001-07:002016-06-22T03:44:16.498-07:00OFE - No, the fees were not crazy high<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
Fees for OFE were 7% one time, initial fee + 0,045% every year.<br />
<br />
Time to retirement is 40 years initially, going down to zero, so it averages 20 years for any given amount of money invested.<br />
<br />
USA 401k retirement fees according to the <a href="http://www.fool.com/retirement/401k/2015/04/06/average-401k-fees.aspx">"401k Averages Book"</a> are small initially, but then every year you pay between 0,3% and 1,8%. The OFE fee is roughtly equivalent to a every year 0,5% fee over 20 years.<br />
<br />
Value in 20 years = After Fee*((1+5% per year return - Yearly Fee)^Years)<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="1" cols="7">
<colgroup span="7" width="85"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT">Initial</td>
<td align="LEFT">Initial Fee</td>
<td align="LEFT">After Fee</td>
<td align="LEFT">Yearly Fee</td>
<td align="LEFT">Value in 20 years, at 5% per year</td>
<td align="LEFT">Amount of fees</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">OFE</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10000">10000</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="700">700</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9300">9300</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%">0,045%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="24465,02184666">24465</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="784,058785457604">784</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">0,5% Fee</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10000">10000</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0">0</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10000">10000</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%">0,5%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="24117,1402483742">24117</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1048,95577186728">1049</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">Min 401k</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10000">10000</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0">0</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10000">10000</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%">0,3%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="25057,2631286922">25057</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="617,411762408961">617</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">Max 401k</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10000">10000</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0">0</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10000">10000</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%">1,8%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="18775,6052506301">18775</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4287,47751777543">4287</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The actual OFE results should be a little worse than this table since you can imagine you will earn more in your second half of your live than in your first one, but I don't think it would be such a dramatic difference.<br />
<br />
One time fees can be converted into repetitive fees.<br />
<div>
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Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-80367649244385968782016-06-17T07:29:00.003-07:002016-06-17T07:29:44.196-07:00War in Ukraine and Armenia - status update<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;">
I thought that the conflict was fully frozen, since in the last 12 months there were no changes in the areas controlled by the warring parties.<br /><br />Compare the map today:<br /><br /><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/Map_of_the_war_in_Donbass.svg">https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/Map_of_the_war_in_Donbass.svg</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br />With the map from 6 months ago:</span><br style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small;" /><br /><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/archive/9/91/20160524163130%21Map_of_the_war_in_Donbass.svg">https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/archive/9/91/20160524163130%21Map_of_the_war_in_Donbass.svg</a><br /><br />I concluded that it would be irrational to keep firing without changes in controlled area. But it looks like that both sides are simply happy to fire at each other continuously from a distance, including with weapons with very low precision such as mortars.<br /><br />There are detailed OSCE monitoring group daily reports if anyone is interrested:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/246986">http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/246986</a><br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Conflict Deaths have fallen sharply from 2015, but at an estimated <span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: black; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22.4px;">273 for 2016 so far I personally think it is still a lot.<br /></span></div>
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts#1.2C000.E2.80.939.2C999_deaths_in_current_or_past_year">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts#1.2C000.E2.80.939.2C999_deaths_in_current_or_past_year</a><br /><br />Also worrying when it comes to armed conflicts in Europe is the azeri-armenian conflict:<br /><br /><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Armenian%E2%80%93Azerbaijani_clashes">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Armenian%E2%80%93Azerbaijani_clashes</a><br /><span style="background-color: white;"><br />Azerbaijan attacked Armenia recently, and conquered 1 small village, and mostly likely they will do it again. Their army is stronger due to the oil money, they have high-tech suicide drones from Israel and staged ISIS-like decapitations of captured armenians.</span><br />Praying for peace in Ukraine & Armenia.<br />
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Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-6828067731042363312015-09-30T01:31:00.000-07:002015-10-02T13:44:32.027-07:00Best selling cars in Europe - 1st quarter 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Source: <a href="http://left-lane.com/european-car-sales-analysis-july-2015-models/">http://left-lane.com/european-car-sales-analysis-july-2015-models/</a><br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="1" cols="5">
<colgroup><col width="101"></col><col width="101"></col><col width="101"></col><col width="101"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="20" width="101"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" width="101">Model</td>
<td align="LEFT" width="101">Jan-Jul 2015</td>
<td align="LEFT" width="101">Jan-Jul 2014</td>
<td align="LEFT" width="100">change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1">1</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Golf</td>
<td align="LEFT">321.299</td>
<td align="LEFT">312.080</td>
<td align="LEFT">3,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2">2</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Fiesta</td>
<td align="LEFT">196.460</td>
<td align="LEFT">191.147</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3">3</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Clio</td>
<td align="LEFT">187.385</td>
<td align="LEFT">185.402</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4">4</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Polo</td>
<td align="LEFT">184.153</td>
<td align="LEFT">162.646</td>
<td align="LEFT">13,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5">5</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Corsa</td>
<td align="LEFT">167.325</td>
<td align="LEFT">152.005</td>
<td align="LEFT">10,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6">6</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Focus</td>
<td align="LEFT">146.872</td>
<td align="LEFT">139.008</td>
<td align="LEFT">5,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7">7</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan Qashqai</td>
<td align="LEFT">144.032</td>
<td align="LEFT">128.489</td>
<td align="LEFT">12,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8">8</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 208</td>
<td align="LEFT">137.481</td>
<td align="LEFT">135.716</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9">9</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Passat</td>
<td align="LEFT">132.474</td>
<td align="LEFT">94.984</td>
<td align="LEFT">39,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10">10</td>
<td align="LEFT">Skoda Octavia</td>
<td align="LEFT">130.505</td>
<td align="LEFT">123.664</td>
<td align="LEFT">5,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="11">11</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi A3 / S3 / RS3</td>
<td align="LEFT">125.427</td>
<td align="LEFT">122.708</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="12">12</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Captur</td>
<td align="LEFT">121.099</td>
<td align="LEFT">100.177</td>
<td align="LEFT">20,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="13">13</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 308</td>
<td align="LEFT">121.000</td>
<td align="LEFT">91.548</td>
<td align="LEFT">32,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="14">14</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Astra</td>
<td align="LEFT">117.283</td>
<td align="LEFT">112.668</td>
<td align="LEFT">4,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="15">15</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat 500</td>
<td align="LEFT">114.452</td>
<td align="LEFT">112.074</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="16">16</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota Yaris</td>
<td align="LEFT">109.642</td>
<td align="LEFT">103.152</td>
<td align="LEFT">6,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17">17</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz C-Class</td>
<td align="LEFT">106.128</td>
<td align="LEFT">72.019</td>
<td align="LEFT">47,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="18">18</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat Panda</td>
<td align="LEFT">105.389</td>
<td align="LEFT">94.172</td>
<td align="LEFT">11,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="19">19</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Mokka</td>
<td align="LEFT">100.041</td>
<td align="LEFT">71.110</td>
<td align="LEFT">40,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="20">20</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 2008</td>
<td align="LEFT">96.797</td>
<td align="LEFT">84.414</td>
<td align="LEFT">14,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="21">21</td>
<td align="LEFT">Skoda Fabia</td>
<td align="LEFT">92.697</td>
<td align="LEFT">70.462</td>
<td align="LEFT">31,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="22">22</td>
<td align="LEFT">Dacia Sandero</td>
<td align="LEFT">91.989</td>
<td align="LEFT">89.003</td>
<td align="LEFT">3,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="23">23</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Tiguan</td>
<td align="LEFT">89.798</td>
<td align="LEFT">96.806</td>
<td align="LEFT">-7,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="24">24</td>
<td align="LEFT">Seat Leon</td>
<td align="LEFT">88.755</td>
<td align="LEFT">82.568</td>
<td align="LEFT">7,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="25">25</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW 3-series</td>
<td align="LEFT">83.554</td>
<td align="LEFT">106.320</td>
<td align="LEFT">-21,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="26">26</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Megane</td>
<td align="LEFT">81.503</td>
<td align="LEFT">83.198</td>
<td align="LEFT">-2,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="27">27</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mini</td>
<td align="LEFT">81.150</td>
<td align="LEFT">46.470</td>
<td align="LEFT">74,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="28">28</td>
<td align="LEFT">Dacia Duster</td>
<td align="LEFT">79.225</td>
<td align="LEFT">79.315</td>
<td align="LEFT">-0,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="29">29</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi A4 / S4 / RS4</td>
<td align="LEFT">78.625</td>
<td align="LEFT">76.419</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="30">30</td>
<td align="LEFT">Seat Ibiza</td>
<td align="LEFT">76.380</td>
<td align="LEFT">71.333</td>
<td align="LEFT">7,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="31">31</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën C3</td>
<td align="LEFT">74.914</td>
<td align="LEFT">84.309</td>
<td align="LEFT">-11,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="32">32</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW 1-series</td>
<td align="LEFT">74.244</td>
<td align="LEFT">79.472</td>
<td align="LEFT">-6,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="33">33</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota Auris</td>
<td align="LEFT">72.669</td>
<td align="LEFT">77.767</td>
<td align="LEFT">-6,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="34">34</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën C4 (Grand) Picasso</td>
<td align="LEFT">71.046</td>
<td align="LEFT">76.728</td>
<td align="LEFT">-7,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="35">35</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault (Grand) Scenic</td>
<td align="LEFT">70.537</td>
<td align="LEFT">70.261</td>
<td align="LEFT">0,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="36">36</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz A-Class</td>
<td align="LEFT">70.373</td>
<td align="LEFT">72.642</td>
<td align="LEFT">-3,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="37">37</td>
<td align="LEFT">Kia Sportage</td>
<td align="LEFT">66.253</td>
<td align="LEFT">58.058</td>
<td align="LEFT">14,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="38">38</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Up!</td>
<td align="LEFT">65.960</td>
<td align="LEFT">80.009</td>
<td align="LEFT">-17,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="39">39</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai ix35</td>
<td align="LEFT">65.185</td>
<td align="LEFT">55.840</td>
<td align="LEFT">16,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="40">40</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Sportsvan</td>
<td align="LEFT">65.025</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.841</td>
<td align="LEFT">369,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="41">41</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan Juke</td>
<td align="LEFT">63.184</td>
<td align="LEFT">57.381</td>
<td align="LEFT">10,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="42">42</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Kuga</td>
<td align="LEFT">60.525</td>
<td align="LEFT">49.552</td>
<td align="LEFT">22,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="43">43</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW 2-series</td>
<td align="LEFT">58.633</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.513</td>
<td align="LEFT">680,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="44">44</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Twingo</td>
<td align="LEFT">58.547</td>
<td align="LEFT">42.393</td>
<td align="LEFT">38,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="45">45</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai i20</td>
<td align="LEFT">58.452</td>
<td align="LEFT">47.358</td>
<td align="LEFT">23,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="46">46</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi A6 / S6 / RS6 / Allroad</td>
<td align="LEFT">58.190</td>
<td align="LEFT">51.942</td>
<td align="LEFT">12,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="47">47</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat 500L</td>
<td align="LEFT">56.745</td>
<td align="LEFT">64.612</td>
<td align="LEFT">-12,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="48">48</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Insignia</td>
<td align="LEFT">56.101</td>
<td align="LEFT">59.341</td>
<td align="LEFT">-5,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="49">49</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi A1</td>
<td align="LEFT">54.352</td>
<td align="LEFT">59.221</td>
<td align="LEFT">-8,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="50">50</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai i10</td>
<td align="LEFT">53.675</td>
<td align="LEFT">48.706</td>
<td align="LEFT">10,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="51">51</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW 5-series</td>
<td align="LEFT">53.330</td>
<td align="LEFT">62.290</td>
<td align="LEFT">-14,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="52">52</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota Aygo</td>
<td align="LEFT">52.275</td>
<td align="LEFT">37.913</td>
<td align="LEFT">37,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="53">53</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz E-Class</td>
<td align="LEFT">51.596</td>
<td align="LEFT">63.285</td>
<td align="LEFT">-18,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="54">54</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat Punto</td>
<td align="LEFT">51.327</td>
<td align="LEFT">55.257</td>
<td align="LEFT">-7,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="55">55</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford (Grand) C-Max</td>
<td align="LEFT">50.481</td>
<td align="LEFT">57.586</td>
<td align="LEFT">-12,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="56">56</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz B-Class</td>
<td align="LEFT">50.462</td>
<td align="LEFT">55.171</td>
<td align="LEFT">-8,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="57">57</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën C4 Cactus</td>
<td align="LEFT">50.339</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.244</td>
<td align="LEFT">706,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="58">58</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi Q3</td>
<td align="LEFT">50.235</td>
<td align="LEFT">47.707</td>
<td align="LEFT">5,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="59">59</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Touran</td>
<td align="LEFT">49.001</td>
<td align="LEFT">60.392</td>
<td align="LEFT">-18,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="60">60</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Mondeo</td>
<td align="LEFT">48.372</td>
<td align="LEFT">30.675</td>
<td align="LEFT">57,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="61">61</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai i30</td>
<td align="LEFT">46.370</td>
<td align="LEFT">51.336</td>
<td align="LEFT">-9,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="62">62</td>
<td align="LEFT">Kia Cee’d</td>
<td align="LEFT">46.213</td>
<td align="LEFT">46.888</td>
<td align="LEFT">-1,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="63">63</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volvo XC60</td>
<td align="LEFT">45.387</td>
<td align="LEFT">34.540</td>
<td align="LEFT">31,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="64">64</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW 4-series</td>
<td align="LEFT">44.784</td>
<td align="LEFT">29.459</td>
<td align="LEFT">52,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="65">65</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volvo V40</td>
<td align="LEFT">44.630</td>
<td align="LEFT">43.776</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="66">66</td>
<td align="LEFT">Skoda Rapid</td>
<td align="LEFT">43.421</td>
<td align="LEFT">47.824</td>
<td align="LEFT">-9,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="67">67</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 108</td>
<td align="LEFT">43.209</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.743</td>
<td align="LEFT">1054,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="68">68</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 3008</td>
<td align="LEFT">42.295</td>
<td align="LEFT">51.676</td>
<td align="LEFT">-18,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="69">69</td>
<td align="LEFT">Skoda Yeti</td>
<td align="LEFT">40.004</td>
<td align="LEFT">37.974</td>
<td align="LEFT">5,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="70">70</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan Micra</td>
<td align="LEFT">39.964</td>
<td align="LEFT">39.230</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="71">71</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën C1</td>
<td align="LEFT">39.289</td>
<td align="LEFT">27.589</td>
<td align="LEFT">42,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="72">72</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lancia/Chrysler Ypsilon</td>
<td align="LEFT">38.832</td>
<td align="LEFT">39.881</td>
<td align="LEFT">-2,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="73">73</td>
<td align="LEFT">Kia Rio</td>
<td align="LEFT">38.734</td>
<td align="LEFT">35.796</td>
<td align="LEFT">8,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="74">74</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi Q5</td>
<td align="LEFT">38.482</td>
<td align="LEFT">35.656</td>
<td align="LEFT">7,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="75">75</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat 500X</td>
<td align="LEFT">37.296</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="76">76</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota RAV4</td>
<td align="LEFT">36.529</td>
<td align="LEFT">32.511</td>
<td align="LEFT">12,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="77">77</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz GLA</td>
<td align="LEFT">35.889</td>
<td align="LEFT">21.644</td>
<td align="LEFT">65,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="78">78</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Zafira</td>
<td align="LEFT">35.579</td>
<td align="LEFT">52.342</td>
<td align="LEFT">-32,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="79">79</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Adam</td>
<td align="LEFT">34.580</td>
<td align="LEFT">32.590</td>
<td align="LEFT">6,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="80">80</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Transporter / Multivan</td>
<td align="LEFT">34.439</td>
<td align="LEFT">30.219</td>
<td align="LEFT">14,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="81">81</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Meriva</td>
<td align="LEFT">34.302</td>
<td align="LEFT">36.154</td>
<td align="LEFT">-5,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="82">82</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mazda CX-5</td>
<td align="LEFT">34.266</td>
<td align="LEFT">34.921</td>
<td align="LEFT">-1,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="83">83</td>
<td align="LEFT">Range Rover Evoque</td>
<td align="LEFT">33.941</td>
<td align="LEFT">31.843</td>
<td align="LEFT">6,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="84">84</td>
<td align="LEFT">Dacia Logan</td>
<td align="LEFT">33.834</td>
<td align="LEFT">34.561</td>
<td align="LEFT">-2,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="85">85</td>
<td align="LEFT">Smart Fortwo</td>
<td align="LEFT">33.691</td>
<td align="LEFT">35.887</td>
<td align="LEFT">-6,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="86">86</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz CLA</td>
<td align="LEFT">33.568</td>
<td align="LEFT">22.299</td>
<td align="LEFT">50,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="87">87</td>
<td align="LEFT">Suzuki Swift</td>
<td align="LEFT">33.311</td>
<td align="LEFT">28.945</td>
<td align="LEFT">15,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="88">88</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mazda3</td>
<td align="LEFT">33.116</td>
<td align="LEFT">28.666</td>
<td align="LEFT">15,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="89">89</td>
<td align="LEFT">Kia Picanto</td>
<td align="LEFT">33.001</td>
<td align="LEFT">32.116</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="90">90</td>
<td align="LEFT">Jeep Renegade</td>
<td align="LEFT">31.778</td>
<td align="LEFT">21</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="91">91</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën C4</td>
<td align="LEFT">31.156</td>
<td align="LEFT">43.205</td>
<td align="LEFT">-27,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="92">92</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan Note</td>
<td align="LEFT">30.931</td>
<td align="LEFT">42.863</td>
<td align="LEFT">-27,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="93">93</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Ka</td>
<td align="LEFT">30.712</td>
<td align="LEFT">33.389</td>
<td align="LEFT">-8,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="94">94</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford B-Max</td>
<td align="LEFT">29.056</td>
<td align="LEFT">36.247</td>
<td align="LEFT">-19,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="95">95</td>
<td align="LEFT">Honda CR-V</td>
<td align="LEFT">28.987</td>
<td align="LEFT">30.290</td>
<td align="LEFT">-4,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="96">96</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi A5 / S5 / RS5</td>
<td align="LEFT">28.982</td>
<td align="LEFT">30.607</td>
<td align="LEFT">-5,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="97">97</td>
<td align="LEFT">DS3</td>
<td align="LEFT">28.411</td>
<td align="LEFT">34.888</td>
<td align="LEFT">-18,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="98">98</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 508</td>
<td align="LEFT">28.342</td>
<td align="LEFT">26.126</td>
<td align="LEFT">8,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="99">99</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan Pulsar</td>
<td align="LEFT">27.951</td>
<td align="LEFT">28</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="100">100</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volvo V70 / XC70</td>
<td align="LEFT">27.820</td>
<td align="LEFT">26.226</td>
<td align="LEFT">6,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="101">101</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mitsubishi ASX</td>
<td align="LEFT">27.748</td>
<td align="LEFT">20.212</td>
<td align="LEFT">37,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="102">102</td>
<td align="LEFT">Skoda Superb</td>
<td align="LEFT">27.138</td>
<td align="LEFT">28.452</td>
<td align="LEFT">-4,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="103">103</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Caddy Life</td>
<td align="LEFT">27.040</td>
<td align="LEFT">27.450</td>
<td align="LEFT">-1,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="104">104</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mini Countryman / Paceman</td>
<td align="LEFT">26.931</td>
<td align="LEFT">36.966</td>
<td align="LEFT">-27,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="105">105</td>
<td align="LEFT">Alfa Romeo Giulietta</td>
<td align="LEFT">26.671</td>
<td align="LEFT">26.334</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="106">106</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW X3</td>
<td align="LEFT">26.563</td>
<td align="LEFT">29.646</td>
<td align="LEFT">-10,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="107">107</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mitsubishi Outlander</td>
<td align="LEFT">25.258</td>
<td align="LEFT">18.701</td>
<td align="LEFT">35,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="108">108</td>
<td align="LEFT">Smart Forfour</td>
<td align="LEFT">25.172</td>
<td align="LEFT">6</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="109">109</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën C3 Picasso</td>
<td align="LEFT">25.091</td>
<td align="LEFT">34.573</td>
<td align="LEFT">-27,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="110">110</td>
<td align="LEFT">Honda Civic</td>
<td align="LEFT">24.858</td>
<td align="LEFT">24.823</td>
<td align="LEFT">0,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="111">111</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volvo V60</td>
<td align="LEFT">24.668</td>
<td align="LEFT">25.024</td>
<td align="LEFT">-1,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="112">112</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW X1</td>
<td align="LEFT">24.134</td>
<td align="LEFT">37.655</td>
<td align="LEFT">-35,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="113">113</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan X-Trail</td>
<td align="LEFT">23.716</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.590</td>
<td align="LEFT">416,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="114">114</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Sharan</td>
<td align="LEFT">23.648</td>
<td align="LEFT">21.902</td>
<td align="LEFT">8,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="115">115</td>
<td align="LEFT">Skoda Citigo</td>
<td align="LEFT">23.354</td>
<td align="LEFT">25.066</td>
<td align="LEFT">-6,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="116">116</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai ix20</td>
<td align="LEFT">22.699</td>
<td align="LEFT">22.929</td>
<td align="LEFT">-1,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="117">117</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW X5</td>
<td align="LEFT">22.191</td>
<td align="LEFT">22.736</td>
<td align="LEFT">-2,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="118">118</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën Berlingo Multispace</td>
<td align="LEFT">21.572</td>
<td align="LEFT">22.907</td>
<td align="LEFT">-5,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="119">119</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Ecosport</td>
<td align="LEFT">21.306</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.024</td>
<td align="LEFT">429,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="120">120</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat Ducato</td>
<td align="LEFT">20.528</td>
<td align="LEFT">18.675</td>
<td align="LEFT">9,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="121">121</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 5008</td>
<td align="LEFT">20.353</td>
<td align="LEFT">23.434</td>
<td align="LEFT">-13,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="122">122</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mitsubishi Space Star / Mirage</td>
<td align="LEFT">19.950</td>
<td align="LEFT">9.904</td>
<td align="LEFT">101,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="123">123</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota Verso</td>
<td align="LEFT">19.819</td>
<td align="LEFT">20.279</td>
<td align="LEFT">-2,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="124">124</td>
<td align="LEFT">Honda Jazz</td>
<td align="LEFT">19.327</td>
<td align="LEFT">23.597</td>
<td align="LEFT">-18,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="125">125</td>
<td align="LEFT">Suzuki S-Cross</td>
<td align="LEFT">18.772</td>
<td align="LEFT">24.142</td>
<td align="LEFT">-22,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="126">126</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mazda2</td>
<td align="LEFT">18.567</td>
<td align="LEFT">14.365</td>
<td align="LEFT">29,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="127">127</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mazda6</td>
<td align="LEFT">18.404</td>
<td align="LEFT">19.682</td>
<td align="LEFT">-6,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="128">128</td>
<td align="LEFT">Kia Venga</td>
<td align="LEFT">18.148</td>
<td align="LEFT">16.132</td>
<td align="LEFT">12,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="129">129</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota Avensis</td>
<td align="LEFT">17.678</td>
<td align="LEFT">17.826</td>
<td align="LEFT">-0,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="130">130</td>
<td align="LEFT">Suzuki Vitara</td>
<td align="LEFT">17.550</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="131">131</td>
<td align="LEFT">Land Rover Discovery Sport</td>
<td align="LEFT">17.198</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="132">132</td>
<td align="LEFT">Range Rover Sport</td>
<td align="LEFT">17.030</td>
<td align="LEFT">16.134</td>
<td align="LEFT">5,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="133">133</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Beetle</td>
<td align="LEFT">16.484</td>
<td align="LEFT">20.005</td>
<td align="LEFT">-17,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="134">134</td>
<td align="LEFT">Seat Alhambra</td>
<td align="LEFT">15.382</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.441</td>
<td align="LEFT">14,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="135">135</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai i40</td>
<td align="LEFT">14.986</td>
<td align="LEFT">15.836</td>
<td align="LEFT">-5,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="136">136</td>
<td align="LEFT">Dacia Dokker</td>
<td align="LEFT">14.985</td>
<td align="LEFT">11.846</td>
<td align="LEFT">26,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="137">137</td>
<td align="LEFT">Dacia Lodgy</td>
<td align="LEFT">14.982</td>
<td align="LEFT">12.980</td>
<td align="LEFT">15,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="138">138</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW X4</td>
<td align="LEFT">14.646</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.138</td>
<td align="LEFT">585,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="139">139</td>
<td align="LEFT">Seat Mii</td>
<td align="LEFT">14.465</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.993</td>
<td align="LEFT">3,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="140">140</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot Partner Tepee / Ranch</td>
<td align="LEFT">14.406</td>
<td align="LEFT">15.487</td>
<td align="LEFT">-7,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="141">141</td>
<td align="LEFT">Porsche Macan</td>
<td align="LEFT">14.356</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.478</td>
<td align="LEFT">92,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="142">142</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi TT</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.976</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.896</td>
<td align="LEFT">102,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="143">143</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Kangoo</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.758</td>
<td align="LEFT">15.064</td>
<td align="LEFT">-8,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="144">144</td>
<td align="LEFT">Skoda Roomster</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.680</td>
<td align="LEFT">16.082</td>
<td align="LEFT">-14,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="145">145</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz V-Class</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.618</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.475</td>
<td align="LEFT">291,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="146">146</td>
<td align="LEFT">Suzuki Celerio</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.588</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="147">147</td>
<td align="LEFT">Kia Carens</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.587</td>
<td align="LEFT">14.840</td>
<td align="LEFT">-8,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="148">148</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Touareg</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.120</td>
<td align="LEFT">12.038</td>
<td align="LEFT">9,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="149">149</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz GLK</td>
<td align="LEFT">12.684</td>
<td align="LEFT">15.063</td>
<td align="LEFT">-15,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="150">150</td>
<td align="LEFT">Seat Altea</td>
<td align="LEFT">12.288</td>
<td align="LEFT">11.462</td>
<td align="LEFT">7,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="151">151</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz M-Class</td>
<td align="LEFT">11.876</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.815</td>
<td align="LEFT">-14,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="152">152</td>
<td align="LEFT">Porsche Cayenne</td>
<td align="LEFT">11.757</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.778</td>
<td align="LEFT">51,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="153">153</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Kadjar</td>
<td align="LEFT">11.091</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="154">154</td>
<td align="LEFT">Jaguar XF</td>
<td align="LEFT">10.686</td>
<td align="LEFT">12.621</td>
<td align="LEFT">-15,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="155">155</td>
<td align="LEFT">DS4</td>
<td align="LEFT">10.620</td>
<td align="LEFT">13.251</td>
<td align="LEFT">-19,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="156">156</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz S-Class</td>
<td align="LEFT">10.489</td>
<td align="LEFT">10.951</td>
<td align="LEFT">-4,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="157">157</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai Santa Fe</td>
<td align="LEFT">9.980</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.764</td>
<td align="LEFT">28,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="158">158</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan Leaf</td>
<td align="LEFT">9.701</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.232</td>
<td align="LEFT">17,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="159">159</td>
<td align="LEFT">Kia Sorento</td>
<td align="LEFT">9.600</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.418</td>
<td align="LEFT">77,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="160">160</td>
<td align="LEFT">Porsche 911</td>
<td align="LEFT">9.553</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.701</td>
<td align="LEFT">9,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="161">161</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Zoe</td>
<td align="LEFT">9.358</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.266</td>
<td align="LEFT">119,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="162">162</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Espace</td>
<td align="LEFT">9.022</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.848</td>
<td align="LEFT">86,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="163">163</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota Corolla</td>
<td align="LEFT">9.001</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.792</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="164">164</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW X6</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.915</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.267</td>
<td align="LEFT">172,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="165">165</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Tourneo Connect</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.900</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.400</td>
<td align="LEFT">64,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="166">166</td>
<td align="LEFT">Subaru Forester</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.819</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.324</td>
<td align="LEFT">5,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="167">167</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat Freemont</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.767</td>
<td align="LEFT">10.402</td>
<td align="LEFT">-15,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="168">168</td>
<td align="LEFT">Range Rover</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.753</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.403</td>
<td align="LEFT">18,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="169">169</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën C5</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.635</td>
<td align="LEFT">12.284</td>
<td align="LEFT">-29,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="170">170</td>
<td align="LEFT">Alfa Romeo MiTo</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.418</td>
<td align="LEFT">10.543</td>
<td align="LEFT">-20,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="171">171</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi Q7</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.371</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.627</td>
<td align="LEFT">26,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="172">172</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Tourneo Courier</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.300</td>
<td align="LEFT">700</td>
<td align="LEFT">1085,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="173">173</td>
<td align="LEFT">Kia Soul</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.226</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.958</td>
<td align="LEFT">65,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="174">174</td>
<td align="LEFT">Tesla Model S</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.082</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.720</td>
<td align="LEFT">41,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="175">175</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lexus NX</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.011</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="176">176</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz CLS</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.981</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.303</td>
<td align="LEFT">26,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="177">177</td>
<td align="LEFT">Jeep Cherokee</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.957</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.604</td>
<td align="LEFT">120,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="178">178</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Tourneo Connect</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.900</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.400</td>
<td align="LEFT">46,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="179">179</td>
<td align="LEFT">Jeep Grand Cherokee</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.834</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.286</td>
<td align="LEFT">-5,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="180">180</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford S-Max</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.650</td>
<td align="LEFT">19.891</td>
<td align="LEFT">-61,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="181">181</td>
<td align="LEFT">Land Rover Discovery</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.565</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.581</td>
<td align="LEFT">15,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="182">182</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Scirocco</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.414</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.271</td>
<td align="LEFT">40,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="183">183</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz SLK</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.400</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.759</td>
<td align="LEFT">-4,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="184">184</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz Vito / Viano Combi</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.315</td>
<td align="LEFT">11.928</td>
<td align="LEFT">-38,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="185">185</td>
<td align="LEFT">DS5</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.237</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.061</td>
<td align="LEFT">-10,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="186">186</td>
<td align="LEFT">Suzuki Jimny</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.203</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.065</td>
<td align="LEFT">18,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="187">187</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volvo XC90</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.200</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.549</td>
<td align="LEFT">29,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="188">188</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Trafic Passenger</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.153</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.657</td>
<td align="LEFT">7,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="189">189</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Tourneo Courier</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.100</td>
<td align="LEFT">700</td>
<td align="LEFT">914,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="190">190</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën C4 Aircross</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.072</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.172</td>
<td align="LEFT">-1,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="191">191</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen CC</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.007</td>
<td align="LEFT">10.110</td>
<td align="LEFT">-30,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="192">192</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi A7 / S7 / RS7</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.728</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.153</td>
<td align="LEFT">30,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="193">193</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Jetta</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.695</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.012</td>
<td align="LEFT">11,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="194">194</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat Qubo</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.670</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.672</td>
<td align="LEFT">0,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="195">195</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel Karl / Vauxhall Viva</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.659</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="196">196</td>
<td align="LEFT">Seat Toledo</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.616</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.583</td>
<td align="LEFT">0,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="197">197</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Laguna</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.484</td>
<td align="LEFT">11.223</td>
<td align="LEFT">-42,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="198">198</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Vivaro Tour</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.328</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.443</td>
<td align="LEFT">16,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="199">199</td>
<td align="LEFT">Subaru Legacy / Outback</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.132</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.914</td>
<td align="LEFT">56,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="200">200</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Tourneo Custom</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.000</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.800</td>
<td align="LEFT">25,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="201">201</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat Doblo</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.684</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.250</td>
<td align="LEFT">33,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="202">202</td>
<td align="LEFT">Subaru XV</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.684</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.317</td>
<td align="LEFT">-10,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="203">203</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW i3</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.669</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.514</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="204">204</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volvo S60</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.666</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.183</td>
<td align="LEFT">-21,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="205">205</td>
<td align="LEFT">Suzuki Alto</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.588</td>
<td align="LEFT">17.305</td>
<td align="LEFT">-67,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="206">206</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mazda CX-3</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.542</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="207">207</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lexus CT</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.454</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.634</td>
<td align="LEFT">-3,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="208">208</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Tourneo Custom</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.300</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.800</td>
<td align="LEFT">10,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="209">209</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Galaxy</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.118</td>
<td align="LEFT">12.286</td>
<td align="LEFT">-58,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="210">210</td>
<td align="LEFT">Jaguar XE</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.970</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="211">211</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lexus IS</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.654</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.369</td>
<td align="LEFT">-26,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="212">212</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mazda5</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.633</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.136</td>
<td align="LEFT">12,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="213">213</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW 6-series</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.510</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.109</td>
<td align="LEFT">-11,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="214">214</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Antara</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.353</td>
<td align="LEFT">5.313</td>
<td align="LEFT">-18,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="215">215</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota Prius</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.329</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.909</td>
<td align="LEFT">-11,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="216">216</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi A8 / S8</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.204</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.406</td>
<td align="LEFT">-4,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="217">217</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota Verso-S</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.198</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.937</td>
<td align="LEFT">6,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="218">218</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota Prius+</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.160</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.535</td>
<td align="LEFT">17,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="219">219</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Koleos</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.134</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.736</td>
<td align="LEFT">-12,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="220">220</td>
<td align="LEFT">SsangYong Korando</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.990</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.572</td>
<td align="LEFT">55,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="221">221</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën C-Elysee</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.891</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.269</td>
<td align="LEFT">-8,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="222">222</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Transit Tourneo</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.863</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.443</td>
<td align="LEFT">12,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="223">223</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan NV200 Evalia</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.715</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.581</td>
<td align="LEFT">3,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="224">224</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz Sprinter Combi</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.616</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.675</td>
<td align="LEFT">-1,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="225">225</td>
<td align="LEFT">Jeep Wrangler</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.583</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.040</td>
<td align="LEFT">17,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="226">226</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Fluence</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.514</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.713</td>
<td align="LEFT">-5,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="227">227</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Cascada</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.480</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.695</td>
<td align="LEFT">-25,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="228">228</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota Land Cruiser</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.401</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.990</td>
<td align="LEFT">-14,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="229">229</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mitsubishi Pajero / Montero / Shogun</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.347</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.606</td>
<td align="LEFT">28,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="230">230</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot Expert Tepee</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.150</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.766</td>
<td align="LEFT">13,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="231">231</td>
<td align="LEFT">Jaguar F-type</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.123</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.033</td>
<td align="LEFT">3,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="232">232</td>
<td align="LEFT">Maserati Ghibli</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.031</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.792</td>
<td align="LEFT">8,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="233">233</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW Z4</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.995</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.780</td>
<td align="LEFT">-20,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="234">234</td>
<td align="LEFT">Porsche Boxster</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.967</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.389</td>
<td align="LEFT">-12,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="235">235</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot RCZ</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.875</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.976</td>
<td align="LEFT">-27,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="236">236</td>
<td align="LEFT">Suzuki SX4</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.806</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.914</td>
<td align="LEFT">-68,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="237">237</td>
<td align="LEFT">Porsche Panamera</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.740</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.721</td>
<td align="LEFT">-26,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="238">238</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mitsubishi Lancer</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.542</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.024</td>
<td align="LEFT">25,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="239">239</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW 7-series</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.491</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.150</td>
<td align="LEFT">-20,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="240">240</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz GL</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.413</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.629</td>
<td align="LEFT">-8,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="241">241</td>
<td align="LEFT">Suzuki Splash</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.331</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.922</td>
<td align="LEFT">-73,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="242">242</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz Citan Combi</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.328</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.567</td>
<td align="LEFT">-9,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="243">243</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lexus RX</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.266</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.841</td>
<td align="LEFT">-20,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="244">244</td>
<td align="LEFT">Suzuki Grand Vitara</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.155</td>
<td align="LEFT">4.065</td>
<td align="LEFT">-47,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="245">245</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Agila</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.993</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.923</td>
<td align="LEFT">-74,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="246">246</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mazda MX-5</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.984</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.719</td>
<td align="LEFT">-46,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="247">247</td>
<td align="LEFT">Porsche Cayman</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.984</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.964</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="248">248</td>
<td align="LEFT">Kia Optima</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.982</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.904</td>
<td align="LEFT">4,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="249">249</td>
<td align="LEFT">Infiniti Q50</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.940</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.504</td>
<td align="LEFT">29,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="250">250</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai Tucson</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.821</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="251">251</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Eos</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.713</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.683</td>
<td align="LEFT">-36,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="252">252</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz G-Class</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.706</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.375</td>
<td align="LEFT">24,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="253">253</td>
<td align="LEFT">Honda Accord</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.697</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.081</td>
<td align="LEFT">-18,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="254">254</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lancia/Chrysler Voyager</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.636</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.722</td>
<td align="LEFT">-39,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="255">255</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 301</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.624</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.024</td>
<td align="LEFT">-19,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="256">256</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-AMG GT</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.552</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="257">257</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 4008</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.521</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.540</td>
<td align="LEFT">-1,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="258">258</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volvo S80</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.509</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.870</td>
<td align="LEFT">-19,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="259">259</td>
<td align="LEFT">BMW i8</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.485</td>
<td align="LEFT">261</td>
<td align="LEFT">469,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="260">260</td>
<td align="LEFT">MG3</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.480</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.093</td>
<td align="LEFT">35,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="261">261</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz SL</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.390</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.959</td>
<td align="LEFT">-29,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="262">262</td>
<td align="LEFT">SsangYong Rexton</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.360</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.178</td>
<td align="LEFT">15,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="263">263</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 207</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.329</td>
<td align="LEFT">14.324</td>
<td align="LEFT">-90,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="264">264</td>
<td align="LEFT">SsangYong Tivoli</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.241</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="265">265</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Twizy</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.122</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.334</td>
<td align="LEFT">-15,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="266">266</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot Bipper Tepee</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.067</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.422</td>
<td align="LEFT">-25,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="267">267</td>
<td align="LEFT">Jaguar XJ</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.042</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.243</td>
<td align="LEFT">-16,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="268">268</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Phaeton</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.037</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.129</td>
<td align="LEFT">-8,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="269">269</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai Elantra</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.030</td>
<td align="LEFT">706</td>
<td align="LEFT">45,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="270">270</td>
<td align="LEFT">SsangYong Rodius / Stavic</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.016</td>
<td align="LEFT">760</td>
<td align="LEFT">33,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="271">271</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota GT86</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.005</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.871</td>
<td align="LEFT">-46,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="272">272</td>
<td align="LEFT">Bentley Continental GT / GTC</td>
<td align="LEFT">991</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.025</td>
<td align="LEFT">-3,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="273">273</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lada Niva</td>
<td align="LEFT">981</td>
<td align="LEFT">792</td>
<td align="LEFT">23,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="274">274</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën Nemo Multispace</td>
<td align="LEFT">974</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.606</td>
<td align="LEFT">-39,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="275">275</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lexus GS</td>
<td align="LEFT">959</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.440</td>
<td align="LEFT">-33,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="276">276</td>
<td align="LEFT">Infiniti QX70</td>
<td align="LEFT">933</td>
<td align="LEFT">581</td>
<td align="LEFT">60,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="277">277</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ferrari 458 Italia</td>
<td align="LEFT">724</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.056</td>
<td align="LEFT">-31,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="278">278</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot iOn</td>
<td align="LEFT">724</td>
<td align="LEFT">296</td>
<td align="LEFT">144,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="279">279</td>
<td align="LEFT">Land Rover Defender</td>
<td align="LEFT">689</td>
<td align="LEFT">794</td>
<td align="LEFT">-13,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="280">280</td>
<td align="LEFT">Audi R8</td>
<td align="LEFT">670</td>
<td align="LEFT">621</td>
<td align="LEFT">7,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="281">281</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz GLE</td>
<td align="LEFT">667</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="282">282</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ferrari California</td>
<td align="LEFT">650</td>
<td align="LEFT">203</td>
<td align="LEFT">220,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="283">283</td>
<td align="LEFT">Alfa Romeo 4C</td>
<td align="LEFT">604</td>
<td align="LEFT">670</td>
<td align="LEFT">-9,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="284">284</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai H1 / Starex</td>
<td align="LEFT">567</td>
<td align="LEFT">609</td>
<td align="LEFT">-6,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="285">285</td>
<td align="LEFT">Subaru Impreza</td>
<td align="LEFT">540</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.534</td>
<td align="LEFT">-64,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="286">286</td>
<td align="LEFT">Maserati Quattroporte</td>
<td align="LEFT">539</td>
<td align="LEFT">517</td>
<td align="LEFT">4,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="287">287</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan 370Z</td>
<td align="LEFT">512</td>
<td align="LEFT">453</td>
<td align="LEFT">13,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="288">288</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford Mustang</td>
<td align="LEFT">500</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="289">289</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën C-Zero</td>
<td align="LEFT">497</td>
<td align="LEFT">503</td>
<td align="LEFT">-1,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="290">290</td>
<td align="LEFT">Aston Martin V8/V12 Vantage</td>
<td align="LEFT">454</td>
<td align="LEFT">478</td>
<td align="LEFT">-5,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="291">291</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan Murano</td>
<td align="LEFT">452</td>
<td align="LEFT">350</td>
<td align="LEFT">29,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="292">292</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mitsubishi i-MiEV</td>
<td align="LEFT">430</td>
<td align="LEFT">420</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="293">293</td>
<td align="LEFT">Jeep Compass</td>
<td align="LEFT">426</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.837</td>
<td align="LEFT">-88,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="294">294</td>
<td align="LEFT">MG6</td>
<td align="LEFT">426</td>
<td align="LEFT">314</td>
<td align="LEFT">35,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="295">295</td>
<td align="LEFT">Chevrolet Spark</td>
<td align="LEFT">386</td>
<td align="LEFT">9.460</td>
<td align="LEFT">-95,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="296">296</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lamborghini Huracan</td>
<td align="LEFT">386</td>
<td align="LEFT">55</td>
<td align="LEFT">601,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="297">297</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan Pathfinder</td>
<td align="LEFT">352</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.194</td>
<td align="LEFT">-70,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="298">298</td>
<td align="LEFT">Infiniti Q70</td>
<td align="LEFT">344</td>
<td align="LEFT">73</td>
<td align="LEFT">371,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="299">299</td>
<td align="LEFT">Bentley Flying Spur</td>
<td align="LEFT">344</td>
<td align="LEFT">410</td>
<td align="LEFT">-16,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="300">300</td>
<td align="LEFT">Land Rover Freelander</td>
<td align="LEFT">318</td>
<td align="LEFT">11.690</td>
<td align="LEFT">-97,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="301">301</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat Bravo</td>
<td align="LEFT">292</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.614</td>
<td align="LEFT">-88,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="302">302</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai Veloster</td>
<td align="LEFT">290</td>
<td align="LEFT">546</td>
<td align="LEFT">-46,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="303">303</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lexus RC</td>
<td align="LEFT">269</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="304">304</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mitsubishi Attrage</td>
<td align="LEFT">258</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="305">305</td>
<td align="LEFT">Subaru BRZ</td>
<td align="LEFT">252</td>
<td align="LEFT">387</td>
<td align="LEFT">-34,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="306">306</td>
<td align="LEFT">Chevrolet Camaro</td>
<td align="LEFT">249</td>
<td align="LEFT">675</td>
<td align="LEFT">-63,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="307">307</td>
<td align="LEFT">Aston Martin Vanquish</td>
<td align="LEFT">238</td>
<td align="LEFT">228</td>
<td align="LEFT">4,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="308">308</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lancia/Chrysler Delta</td>
<td align="LEFT">235</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.807</td>
<td align="LEFT">-91,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="309">309</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lotus Elise</td>
<td align="LEFT">228</td>
<td align="LEFT">158</td>
<td align="LEFT">44,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="310">310</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat Sedici</td>
<td align="LEFT">223</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.763</td>
<td align="LEFT">-87,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="311">311</td>
<td align="LEFT">Maserati GranTurismo</td>
<td align="LEFT">223</td>
<td align="LEFT">244</td>
<td align="LEFT">-8,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="312">312</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ferrari F12</td>
<td align="LEFT">218</td>
<td align="LEFT">327</td>
<td align="LEFT">-33,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="313">313</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lotus Exige</td>
<td align="LEFT">199</td>
<td align="LEFT">177</td>
<td align="LEFT">12,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="314">314</td>
<td align="LEFT">Aston Martin DB9</td>
<td align="LEFT">192</td>
<td align="LEFT">168</td>
<td align="LEFT">14,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="315">315</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel/Vauxhall Ampera</td>
<td align="LEFT">181</td>
<td align="LEFT">504</td>
<td align="LEFT">-64,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="316">316</td>
<td align="LEFT">Chevrolet Trax</td>
<td align="LEFT">180</td>
<td align="LEFT">8.760</td>
<td align="LEFT">-97,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="317">317</td>
<td align="LEFT">Maserati GranCabrio</td>
<td align="LEFT">178</td>
<td align="LEFT">160</td>
<td align="LEFT">11,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="318">318</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lamborghini Aventador</td>
<td align="LEFT">174</td>
<td align="LEFT">159</td>
<td align="LEFT">9,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="319">319</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai Genesis</td>
<td align="LEFT">168</td>
<td align="LEFT">62</td>
<td align="LEFT">171,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="320">320</td>
<td align="LEFT">Rolls Royce Wraith</td>
<td align="LEFT">153</td>
<td align="LEFT">214</td>
<td align="LEFT">-28,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="321">321</td>
<td align="LEFT">Rolls Royce Ghost</td>
<td align="LEFT">139</td>
<td align="LEFT">115</td>
<td align="LEFT">20,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="322">322</td>
<td align="LEFT">Jaguar XK</td>
<td align="LEFT">139</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.157</td>
<td align="LEFT">-88,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="323">323</td>
<td align="LEFT">Bentley Mulsanne</td>
<td align="LEFT">135</td>
<td align="LEFT">111</td>
<td align="LEFT">21,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="324">324</td>
<td align="LEFT">Aston Martin Rapide</td>
<td align="LEFT">116</td>
<td align="LEFT">93</td>
<td align="LEFT">24,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="325">325</td>
<td align="LEFT">Infiniti QX50</td>
<td align="LEFT">114</td>
<td align="LEFT">79</td>
<td align="LEFT">44,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="326">326</td>
<td align="LEFT">DR5</td>
<td align="LEFT">110</td>
<td align="LEFT">35</td>
<td align="LEFT">214,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="327">327</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota iQ</td>
<td align="LEFT">110</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.685</td>
<td align="LEFT">-95,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="328">328</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ferrari FF</td>
<td align="LEFT">107</td>
<td align="LEFT">120</td>
<td align="LEFT">-10,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="329">329</td>
<td align="LEFT">Chevrolet Cruze</td>
<td align="LEFT">107</td>
<td align="LEFT">7.016</td>
<td align="LEFT">-98,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="330">330</td>
<td align="LEFT">Chevrolet Aveo</td>
<td align="LEFT">103</td>
<td align="LEFT">3.526</td>
<td align="LEFT">-97,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="331">331</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lotus Evora</td>
<td align="LEFT">101</td>
<td align="LEFT">55</td>
<td align="LEFT">83,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="332">332</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 107</td>
<td align="LEFT">81</td>
<td align="LEFT">23.792</td>
<td align="LEFT">-99,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="333">333</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault Latitude</td>
<td align="LEFT">73</td>
<td align="LEFT">294</td>
<td align="LEFT">-75,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="334">334</td>
<td align="LEFT">Citroën C8</td>
<td align="LEFT">65</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.418</td>
<td align="LEFT">-95,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="335">335</td>
<td align="LEFT">Rolls Royce Phantom</td>
<td align="LEFT">64</td>
<td align="LEFT">70</td>
<td align="LEFT">-8,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="336">336</td>
<td align="LEFT">DR CityCross</td>
<td align="LEFT">56</td>
<td align="LEFT">96</td>
<td align="LEFT">-41,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="337">337</td>
<td align="LEFT">Peugeot 807</td>
<td align="LEFT">55</td>
<td align="LEFT">1.377</td>
<td align="LEFT">-96,0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="338">338</td>
<td align="LEFT">Tata Indica</td>
<td align="LEFT">42</td>
<td align="LEFT">213</td>
<td align="LEFT">-80,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="339">339</td>
<td align="LEFT">Chevrolet Captiva</td>
<td align="LEFT">40</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.807</td>
<td align="LEFT">-98,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="340">340</td>
<td align="LEFT">Subaru Trezia</td>
<td align="LEFT">38</td>
<td align="LEFT">249</td>
<td align="LEFT">-84,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="341">341</td>
<td align="LEFT">Suzuki Kizashi</td>
<td align="LEFT">34</td>
<td align="LEFT">171</td>
<td align="LEFT">-80,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="342">342</td>
<td align="LEFT">Chevrolet Orlando</td>
<td align="LEFT">33</td>
<td align="LEFT">2.793</td>
<td align="LEFT">-98,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="343">343</td>
<td align="LEFT">Honda CR-Z</td>
<td align="LEFT">31</td>
<td align="LEFT">214</td>
<td align="LEFT">-85,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="344">344</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG</td>
<td align="LEFT">30</td>
<td align="LEFT">352</td>
<td align="LEFT">-91,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="345">345</td>
<td align="LEFT">Honda Insight</td>
<td align="LEFT">26</td>
<td align="LEFT">388</td>
<td align="LEFT">-93,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="346">346</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lancia Thema / Chrysler 300C</td>
<td align="LEFT">25</td>
<td align="LEFT">319</td>
<td align="LEFT">-92,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="347">347</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota Urban Cruiser</td>
<td align="LEFT">22</td>
<td align="LEFT">290</td>
<td align="LEFT">-92,4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="348">348</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ferrari 488 GTB</td>
<td align="LEFT">20</td>
<td align="LEFT">0</td>
<td align="LEFT">New</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="349">349</td>
<td align="LEFT">Tata Xenon</td>
<td align="LEFT">20</td>
<td align="LEFT">26</td>
<td align="LEFT">-23,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="350">350</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mitsubishi Colt</td>
<td align="LEFT">14</td>
<td align="LEFT">192</td>
<td align="LEFT">-92,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="351">351</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen Golf Plus</td>
<td align="LEFT">13</td>
<td align="LEFT">6.221</td>
<td align="LEFT">-99,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="352">352</td>
<td align="LEFT">Hyundai Genesis coupe</td>
<td align="LEFT">8</td>
<td align="LEFT">60</td>
<td align="LEFT">-86,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="353">353</td>
<td align="LEFT">Lamborghini Gallardo</td>
<td align="LEFT">7</td>
<td align="LEFT">65</td>
<td align="LEFT">-89,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="354">354</td>
<td align="LEFT">Seat Exeo</td>
<td align="LEFT">7</td>
<td align="LEFT">216</td>
<td align="LEFT">-96,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="355">355</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mercedes-Benz R-Class</td>
<td align="LEFT">5</td>
<td align="LEFT">24</td>
<td align="LEFT">-79,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="356">356</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fiat Linea</td>
<td align="LEFT">5</td>
<td align="LEFT">158</td>
<td align="LEFT">-96,8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<br />
Most popular in Poland in 2015, source: <a href="http://www.pzpm.org.pl/pl/content/download/6213/30667/file/PZPM_CEP_info_osobdost_08_2015.pdf">http://www.pzpm.org.pl/pl/content/download/6213/30667/file/PZPM_CEP_info_osobdost_08_2015.pdf</a><br />
<div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="1" cellspacing="1" cols="7">
<colgroup><col width="81"></col><col width="146"></col><col width="97"></col><col width="50"></col><col width="81"></col><col width="67"></col><col width="54"></col></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="19" width="81"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" width="146"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" width="97"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" width="50">Jan-Aug</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2015" width="81">2015</td>
<td align="LEFT" width="67">Jan-Aug</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2014" width="54">2014</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1">1</td>
<td align="LEFT">Skoda</td>
<td align="LEFT">Octavia</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9409">9409</td>
<td align="LEFT">4,1%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9543">9543</td>
<td align="LEFT">4,3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2">2</td>
<td align="LEFT">Skoda</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fabia</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7780">7780</td>
<td align="LEFT">3,4%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6810">6810</td>
<td align="LEFT">3,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3">3</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen</td>
<td align="LEFT">Golf</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7275">7275</td>
<td align="LEFT">3,1%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5836">5836</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4">4</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel</td>
<td align="LEFT">Astra</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6887">6887</td>
<td align="LEFT">3,0%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5648">5648</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5">5</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota</td>
<td align="LEFT">Yaris</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6463">6463</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,8%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4682">4682</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6">6</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota</td>
<td align="LEFT">Auris</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6232">6232</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,7%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6026">6026</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7">7</td>
<td align="LEFT">Skoda</td>
<td align="LEFT">Rapid</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6154">6154</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,7%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5436">5436</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8">8</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford</td>
<td align="LEFT">Focus</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6038">6038</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,6%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6814">6814</td>
<td align="LEFT">3,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9">9</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel</td>
<td align="LEFT">Corsa</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5233">5233</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,3%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4975">4975</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10">10</td>
<td align="LEFT">Volkswagen</td>
<td align="LEFT">Passat</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4935">4935</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,1%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4210">4210</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="11">11</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault</td>
<td align="LEFT">Clio</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4802">4802</td>
<td align="LEFT">2,1%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3841">3841</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="12">12</td>
<td align="LEFT">Dacia</td>
<td align="LEFT">Duster</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4059">4059</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,8%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4217">4217</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="13">13</td>
<td align="LEFT">Nissan</td>
<td align="LEFT">Qashqai</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3839">3839</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,7%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3320">3320</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="14">14</td>
<td align="LEFT">Kia</td>
<td align="LEFT">Sportage</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3337">3337</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,4%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3483">3483</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="15">15</td>
<td align="LEFT">Kia</td>
<td align="LEFT">Cee'D</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3089">3089</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,3%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3364">3364</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="16">16</td>
<td align="LEFT">Opel</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mokka</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3059">3059</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,3%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1323">1323</td>
<td align="LEFT">0,6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17">17</td>
<td align="LEFT">Ford</td>
<td align="LEFT">Mondeo</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2941">2941</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,3%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1978">1978</td>
<td align="LEFT">0,9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="18">18</td>
<td align="LEFT">Toyota</td>
<td align="LEFT">Corolla</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2830">2830</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,2%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2334">2334</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="18" sdnum="1045;" sdval="19">19</td>
<td align="LEFT">Seat</td>
<td align="LEFT">Leon</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2790">2790</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,2%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1765">1765</td>
<td align="LEFT">0,8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="20">20</td>
<td align="LEFT">Renault</td>
<td align="LEFT">Megane</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2768">2768</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,2%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2672">2672</td>
<td align="LEFT">1,2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT">Top 20</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="99920">99920</td>
<td align="LEFT">43,26%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="88277">88277</td>
<td align="LEFT">39,86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="19"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT">Rest</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="131065">131065</td>
<td align="LEFT">56,74%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="133200">133200</td>
<td align="LEFT">60,14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="18"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://images.thecarconnection.com/sml/2015-fiat-500l-5dr-hb-trekking-angular-front-exterior-view_100495985_s.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://images.thecarconnection.com/sml/2015-fiat-500l-5dr-hb-trekking-angular-front-exterior-view_100495985_s.jpg" /></a></div>
<div>
<br />
E no Brasil, de Janeiro a Agosto de 2015: <a href="http://quatrorodas.abril.com.br/autoservico/top50/2015.shtml">http://quatrorodas.abril.com.br/autoservico/top50/2015.shtml</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="1" cols="3">
<colgroup><col width="101"></col><col width="101"></col><col width="101"></col></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1" width="101"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">1</span></td>
<td align="LEFT" width="101"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Fiat Palio</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="83331" width="101"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">83331</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">2</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Chevrolet Onix</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="77514"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">77514</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">3</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Fiat Strada</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="72341"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">72341</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">4</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Hyundai HB20</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="69983"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">69983</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">5</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Ford Ka</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="62080"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">62080</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">6</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Volkswagen Gol</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="57993"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">57993</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">7</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Fiat Uno</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="56860"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">56860</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">8</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Volkswagen Fox/CrossFox</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="56207"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">56207</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">9</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Renault Sandero</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="51914"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">51914</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">10</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Chevrolet Prisma</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="45122"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">45122</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="11"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">11</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Toyota Corolla</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="43819"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">43819</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="12"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">12</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Volkswagen Saveiro</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="42417"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">42417</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="13"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">13</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Fiat Siena</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="42165"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">42165</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="14"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">14</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Volkswagen Up</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="37123"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">37123</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="15"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">15</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Hyundai HB20S</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="36065"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">36065</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="16"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">16</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Ford Fiesta</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="30180"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">30180</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">17</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Volkswagen Voyage</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="29764"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">29764</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="18"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">18</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Honda Fit</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="29350"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">29350</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="20"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">20</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Honda HR-V</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="27437"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">27437</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="19"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">19</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Ford Ka+</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="24541"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">24541</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="22"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">22</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Toyota Etios Hatch</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="23916"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">23916</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="23"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">23</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Ford Ecosport</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="23703"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">23703</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="24"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">24</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Honda Civic</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="23260"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">23260</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="21"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">21</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Chevrolet S10</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="23176"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">23176</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="26"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">26</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Renault Duster</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="22978"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">22978</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="25"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">25</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Chevrolet Classic</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="22648"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">22648</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="27"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">27</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Toyota Hilux</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="22404"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">22404</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="28"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">28</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Renault Logan</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="22336"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">22336</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="31"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">31</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Chevrolet Spin</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="18143"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">18143</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="30"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">30</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Chevrolet Montana</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="18130"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">18130</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="32"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">32</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Honda City</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17813"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">17813</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="29"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">29</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Chevrolet Celta</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17644"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">17644</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="33"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">33</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Toyota Etios Sedan</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17319"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">17319</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="34"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">34</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Chevrolet Cobalt</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="16285"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">16285</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="35"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">35</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Nissan March</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="16027"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">16027</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="38"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">38</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Jeep Renegade</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="14837"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">14837</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="36"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">36</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Ford Ranger</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="12710"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">12710</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="37"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">37</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Citroën C3</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="11794"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">11794</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="40"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">40</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Fiat Punto</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="11163"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">11163</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="45"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">45</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Ford Focus</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10950"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">10950</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="39"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">39</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Hyundai ix35</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10878"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">10878</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="41"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">41</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Renault Clio</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10755"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">10755</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="42"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">42</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Fiat Fiorino</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10676"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">10676</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="43"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">43</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Mitsubishi L200</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10392"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">10392</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="44"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">44</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Peugeot 208</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10064"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">10064</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="47"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">47</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Nissan Versa</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9883"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">9883</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="19" sdnum="1045;" sdval="46"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">46</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Nissan Sentra</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9059"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">9059</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="49"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">49</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Volkswagen Amarok</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8381"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">8381</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="48"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">48</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Hyundai Tucson</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8357"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">8357</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="36" sdnum="1045;" sdval="50"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">50</span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Chevrolet Cruze Sedan</span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7973"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">7973</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-43736895984978122072015-04-17T07:20:00.000-07:002015-04-17T07:41:47.516-07:00Escaping a Supermassive Black Hole<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Recently I got interrested in the stars. And with the help of sky charts and iPhone apps, I can already recognize Venus, Saturn, Syrius, Procyon and a few other ones every night that has no clouds (which seams to be less than half here in Wroclaw). I also managed to predict (using tables in the internet) and view my first meteor :) A Virginid in 21st April.<br />
<br />
Anyway, when studying the cosmos, very often the topic ends up landing in black holes ... because they are scary, massive and apocaliptic. So I decided to write a bit on the topic.<br />
<br />
So, what are the real dangers? How close can we get to such a thing and still survive to escape from it? How likely are we to just crash into one of the millions of black holes suspected to be in our galaxy? Aprox. 1 in every 1000 stars is a black hole and our galaxy has billions of stars, so that makes millions of black holes.<br />
<br />
In particular this internet discussion made me want to write this text: <a href="https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/minimum-safe-distance-to-black-hole.557292/">https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/minimum-safe-distance-to-black-hole.557292/</a><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
1> Danger of an eventual colision with the earth<br />
<br />
Nothing travels faster than light, which travels at 300 000 km per second (3 * 10^8 meters per second). So we don't have to worry, since the closest black hole is probably 7 000 light-years away ( <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V404_Cygni">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V404_Cygni</a> ). Even if someone installed Star-trekish warp engines on it, aimed at the earth, and went with full speed forward, it would still take at least 7 000 years for it to get here. Anyway, knowing that it is impossible for a black hole to accelerate to the speed of light, and that most stars in our galaxy orbit our galatical central black hole with equal speeds, a colision is extremely unlikely.<br />
<br />
The center of our galaxy has a supermassive black hole, with 7 million sun masses and 26 000 light years away, but just like everything else in our galaxy, we are orbiting this black hole and we won't crash into it anymore than the moon would crash the earth or the earth would crash into the sun. We are in normal orbit around it with a speed of 220 km/s (792 000 km/h) or 0.073% of the speed of light. It takes the Solar System about 240 million years to complete one orbit of the Milky Way. At this speed, it takes around 1,400 years for the Solar System to travel a distance of 1 light-year.<br />
<br />
2> How close can we get and still orbit the largest blackholes ever found? What g (gravitational acceleration) would we feel? How fast do we need to go to orbit it? How close could we get to it and still be able to escape?<br />
<br />
I looked up in wikipedia the following equations, simplified considering that the black hole mass is ridiculously higher then ours:<br />
<br />
A=G*M/r^2<br />
where:<br />
A - Gravitational acceleration<br />
G - Gravitational constant G=6,674 * 10^-11 * m^3 * kg-1 * s-2<br />
M - Mass of the black hole<br />
r - Distance<br />
<br />
And similarly the speeds to orbit and escape (get out of orbit) of a black hole are:<br />
<br />
Vorbit = square root ( G * M / r)<br />
Vescape = square root ( 2 * G * M / r)<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Taking a look at the known black holes, we can see that they range from small ones of 10 times our sun's mass, to small supermassive ones like the on our galatical center (7 million sons), to true monsters of aprox. 20 billion sun masses. Source: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_massive_black_holes">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_massive_black_holes</a></div>
<br />
So lets start with the worse one. What if we had an encounter with a beast of 20 billion sun masses. Could we get into orbit and avoid falling into it? The first step was to check if my equations are right, so I applied it to see how fast an satelitte would need to go to orbit the earth. The earth has a radius of 6370 km, so to round the numbers I setup an orbit 7000 km from the center, so 630km from the surface:<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cols="8">
<colgroup span="7" width="85"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="94"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">Distance in m</td>
<td align="LEFT">mass in suns</td>
<td align="LEFT">kg per sun</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00">G</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00">Acceleration (m/s^2)</td>
<td align="LEFT">Vorbit (m/s)</td>
<td align="LEFT">Vorbit (km/h)</td>
<td align="LEFT">Vorbit (in c)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7000000">7000000</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="0,00000300251382604324">3,00E-006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="1,989E+030">1,99E+030</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000000006674">6,67E-11</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="8,13410775510204">8,13E+00</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7545,7772486149">7545,78</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="27164,7980950136">27164,8</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,0000251525908287163">2,52E-05</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div>
The result is that at an altitude of 630 km there is g = 8 m/s/s, and we need 27 thousand km/h to orbit it. Which is correct!<br />
<br />
Now, let's apply this to the beast:<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cols="10">
<colgroup span="8" width="85"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="94"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="85"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">Distance</td>
<td align="LEFT">Distance in m</td>
<td align="LEFT">mass in suns</td>
<td align="LEFT">kg per sun</td>
<td align="LEFT">G</td>
<td align="LEFT">Acceleration (m/s^2)</td>
<td align="LEFT">Vorbit (km/s)</td>
<td align="LEFT">Vorbit (km/h)</td>
<td align="LEFT">Vorbit (in c)</td>
<td align="LEFT">Vescape (km/h)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">1 AU</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="149600000000">1,5E+11</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="20000000000">2,00E+010</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="1,989E+030">1,99E+030</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000000006674">6,67E-11</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="118628159,941663">1,19E+08</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4212691862,36933">4212691,37</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="15165690704,5296">1,5E+10</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="14,0423062078977">1,40E+01</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="21447525477,1013">21447E+6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">100 AU</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="14960000000000">1,5E+13</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="20000000000">2,00E+010</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="1,989E+030">1,99E+030</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000000006674">6,67E-11</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="11862,8159941663">1,19E+04</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="421269186,236933">421269,24</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1516569070,45296">1,5E+9</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="1,40423062078978">1,40E+00</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2144752547,71013">2144E+6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">1000 AU</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="149600000000000">1,5E+14</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="20000000000">2,00E+010</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="1,989E+030">1,99E+030</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000000006674">6,67E-11</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="118,628159941663">1,19E+02</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="133217013,655436">133217,66</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="479581249,159571">4,79E+8</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,444056712184788">4,44E-01</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="678230306,821296">678E+6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">1 light year</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9,4605284E+015">9,46E+015</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="20000000000">2,00E+010</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="1,989E+030">1,99E+030</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000000006674">6,67E-11</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,0296633498281402">2,97E-02</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="16752043,5615556">16752,56</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="60307356,8216">60307E+3</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,0558401452051852">5,58E-02</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="85287481,9279803">85E+6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">10 light year</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9,4605284E+016">9,46E+016</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="20000000000">2,00E+010</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="1,989E+030">1,99E+030</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000000006674">6,67E-11</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,000296633498281402">2,97E-04</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5297461,31168747">5297,31</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="19070860,7220749">19070E+3</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,0176582043722916">1,77E-02</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="26970269,8792867">26E+6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">100 light year</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9,4605284E+017">9,46E+017</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="20000000000">2,00E+010</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="1,989E+030">1,99E+030</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000000006674">6,67E-11</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000296633498281402">2,97E-06</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1675204,35615556">1675,36</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6030735,68216">6030E+3</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00558401452051852">5,58E-03</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8528748,19279803">8528E+3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">1000 light year</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9,4605284E+018">9,46E+018</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="20000000000">2,00E+010</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="1,989E+030">1,99E+030</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000000006674">6,67E-11</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,0000000296633498281402">2,97E-08</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="529746,131168747">529,13</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1907086,07220749">1907E+3</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00176582043722916">1,77E-03</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2697026,98792867">2697E+3</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So we need to be at least 1000 astronomic units (distance from earth to sun, 150 million km) to be significantly outside the event horizon, but still at this distance the orbit velocity is 44% of the light speed, impossibly high. The gravity is also huge, at 119 m/s/s, although we would not feel it since it would be a free fall. We only feel gravity on earth because of our contact with other objects. Without a surface to contact at this distance, we would be in free fall. Now comes the tricky part. While we would not feel the acceleration that the black hole causes in us, to escape it, by firing the ship engines, we would feel the acceleration that the ship causes on us because of our contact with the ship. At aprox. 15 G humans would die (humans can survive at most 3-6 G), and the ship itself would need to be really, really thoughly built for it to survive itself. So humans basically have no chance of surviving at this distance. Death is a question of time.<br />
<br />
At 1 light year away the gravity is smaller, 0,03 m/s/s so it should be easy to avoid a crash by simply aiming our ship engines towards the hole and firing them. Any rocket can easily provide such an acceleration. But this means that we need to burn fuel to keep our position, and fuel will eventually run out. To get into a stable orbit so that we can keep our distance without falling we would need 5,5% of the light speed ... which is insanely high. So at this position we cannot keep an orbit, but it is possible to escape already. And it is 63 times further away from our studied position of 1000 AU.<br />
<br />
To keep an orbit, we would need to be at least 1000 ly away. Here we would need 1,6 million km/h to obtain orbit, a huge speed, but still it should be possible to obtain it if we have enough fuel.<br />
<br />
Conclusion: We are lucky to be so far away from this develish objects!!!<br />
<br />
If you have fuel, its not that hard to escape, and you can go as close as 1 ly and come back alive. The black hole is a patient beast, so it will make a small force at you, so that while a rocket can easily escape, if you have no fuel, bye-bye! Its lunch time, and you are the dish.<br />
<br />
3> The same calculation for Sagittarius A, the black hole in our galatic center:<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cols="8">
<colgroup span="8" width="85"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">Distance</td>
<td align="LEFT">Distance in m</td>
<td align="LEFT">mass in suns</td>
<td align="LEFT">Acceleration (m/s^2)</td>
<td align="LEFT">Vorbit (km/s)</td>
<td align="LEFT">Vorbit (km/h)</td>
<td align="LEFT">Vorbit (in c)</td>
<td align="LEFT">Vescape (km/h)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">10 AU</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1496000000000">1496E+9</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="4100000">4,10E+006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="243,187727880408">2,43E+02</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="19073,7736410258">19073,77</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="68665,5851076929">6,87E+004</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,000063579245470086">6,36E-05</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="97107,8017275833">9,71E+004</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">100 AU</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="14960000000000">14960E+9</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="4100000">4,10E+006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="2,43187727880408">2,43E+00</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6031,65682801244">6031,66</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="21713,9645808448">2,17E+004</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,0000201055227600415">2,01E-05</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="30708,1832031197">3,07E+004</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">1000 AU</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="149600000000000">149600E+9</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="4100001">4,10E+006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,0243187787194488">2,43E-02</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1907,37759670956">1907,38</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="6866,55934815443">6,87E+003</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000635792532236521">6,36E-06</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="9710,78135699975">9,71E+003</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">1 light year</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9,4605284E+015">9,46E+015</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="4100002">4,10E+006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000608098968110371">6,08E-06</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="239,85282065923">239,85</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="863,470154373227">8,63E+002</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,000000799509402197433">8,00E-07</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="1221,13120301901">1,22E+003</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">10 light year</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9,4605284E+016">9,46E+016</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="4100003">4,10E+006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,0000000608099116427121">6,08E-08</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="75,8481308996713">75,85</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="273,053271238817">2,73E+002</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,000000252827102998905">2,53E-07</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="386,155639436274">3,86E+002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">100 light year</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9,4605284E+017">9,46E+017</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="4100004">4,10E+006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000000060809926474387">6,08E-10</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="23,9852879159882">23,99</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="86,3470364975575">8,63E+001</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,0000000799509597199607">8,00E-08</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="122,113150085571">1,22E+002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">1000 light year</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9,4605284E+018">9,46E+018</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="4100005">4,10E+006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000000000608099413060619">6,08E-12</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7,58481493991997">7,58</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="27,3053337837119">2,73E+001</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,0000000252827164663999">2,53E-08</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="38,6155733620496">3,86E+001</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">25000 light year</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2,3651321E+020">2,37E+020</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="4100006">4,10E+006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="9,72959298203789E-015">9,73E-15</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1,51696317297924">1,52</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="5,46106742272528">5,46E+000</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+00" sdval="0,00000000505654390993081">5,06E-09</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00E+000" sdval="7,72311561425197">7,72E+000</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
<br />
The picture is similar, but with a mass 1000 times smaller, we could even get as close as 100 AU and a rocket could still guarantee our escape. Don't be too confident, however, since at 10 AU death is certain due to the acceleration which cannot be overcome. The solar system is travelling very fast, at over 200 km/h similar to the orbiting speed at 1 ly, which would be the closest we could get and still be able to obtain a stable orbit.<br />
<br />
Note however, that all of these close distances are very optimistic since the disk of stuff close to the black hole, called Accretion Disc, is full of stars and gamma radiation, so a lot of dangerous stuff could be found much further away from the no-return point that ever.<br />
<br />
4> Final conclusions:<br />
<br />
There is nothing to worry. No black holes are coming in our direction, and even if you take a space ship and go out to find one, well, you will have died a long time before the ship finds one, since the distances in the galaxy are so huge. And even when facing the most insanely huge black holes (which are also insanely far away) one has multiple survival options, like building a rocket to fights its gravity and go to a place where you can obtain a good orbiting position.</div>
</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-73560352126502514032015-02-27T03:31:00.000-08:002015-03-02T01:51:44.006-08:00Why I'll think 10 times before buying Apple again<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Ever since I got my first MacBook 7 years ago, I was fascinated by the elegant and flexible devices created by Apple. Unlike Windows PCs it just worked, and allowed me to know a completely new ecosystem. When I got my first iPhone some years ago, the same: My previous phone, a HTC Wildfire, had scores of problems, slowness and broke after a short fall, but the iPhone is still just as good as it was 3 years ago. So why after 7 years I am no longer an Apple admirer and I have an each time more negative view of the products that the company sells? Well, I had a decent shares of disappointments with the iPhone, despite the amazing quality, and the drop of water was my newest MacBook Pro, which has so many issues that made me rethink completely my idea of the company. This blog post has the aim of explaining the problems with Apple products to other people so that I won't have to repeat the explanation too many times.<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
iPhone</h3>
<br />
Problem 1 - No Files<br />
<br />
Files are this wonderful idea. You can download a file from the web or from an e-mail attachment and then open it in any app in your device, edit it with an editor app, then convert to another format, then copy to the computer and back, etc. It's a wonderful world of endless possibilities. But no, not in the iPhone. There users are completely blocked from the concept of files, which ruins so many tasks.<br />
<br />
Once I had a .pas pascal source code file in an e-mail attachment and wanted to show it to someone in my iPhone. I went to the e-mail, clicked the attachment and nope. Nothing happens!!! OMG. It cannot download the file, it will not do it. It cannot open it, although its just stupid plain text because it only opens .txt as text. It was so frustrating that a computing device costing hundreds of euros cannot a plain text file!!! Despite the fact that there is a text editor in the phone, the lack of the concept of files prevents this simple task.<br />
<br />
Problem 2 - Stupid limitations with copying mp3 to the iPhone<br />
<br />
You can only copy mp3 to the iPhone from 1 single computer, if you copy from another one, it will erase the mp3 adding in the other computer. Even if all of the music you bought as original CDs and converted them to mp3 yourself! This shows a core idea of the company: If something is not bringing in extra revenue for the company, as in revenue that you need to further pay after the overpriced device, they don't care about supporting it. Worse, they'll actively make it very hard to do things which don't bring them money.<br />
<br />
Problem 3 - No battery replacement, No memory card<br />
<br />
I like to fix my own stuff. Not with Apple, their devices are unfixable to force you to buy a new device. This is planned obsolecense at its worse. Which is outrageous considering that I already paid a lot of money for the phone.<br />
<br />
Not only unfixable, also impossible to upgrade via memory increase, again to force you to buy a new device.<br />
<br />
Problem 5 - Stupid limitations in Operating System upgrades / downgrades<br />
<br />
Operating Systeme downgrades are so hard as to be virtually impossible (ok, they are possible but extremely hard if you plan ahead before upgrading and follow lengthy instructions). If you don't like the new Operating System and wants to go back, Apple will not make it easy for you, if you didn't plan carefully ahead for this moment, a downgrade is impossible.<br />
<br />
Upgrading to a different version than they allow you is also impossible. I have iOS 5 and would like to upgrade to iOS 6. I don't want iOS 7 because it is ugly, big and slow. But Apple won't let me upgrade to iOS 6 anymore! =(<br />
<br />
<h3>
MacBook Pro Retina</h3>
<br />
Problem 1 - No Battery Replacement<br />
<br />
Wow!!! Seriously, for an expensive "Pro" notebook there is no battery replacement? Every single notebook I've ever seen, including MacBooks will have each time worse battery performance, and after 4 years the battery lasts only 1 or 2 hours max. This is a death clock for the device, which is totally unacceptable to me, and I didn't even think they would be capable of doing such a thing.<br />
<br />
The battery is glued in the top case, making it impossible to change yourself. Oh, well, there are some 70-steps instructions in the web (70 steps just to unassemble, 70 again to put everything back together!!!), which involve using heating sources to unglue pieces.<br />
<br />
It looks like that Tim Cook, the fag that runs Apple wants to stick his in our rear parts, what else could we expect from a fag? Will someone please, please resurrect Steve Jobs???<br />
<br />
Problem 2 - No Ethernet, only with an expensive Thunderbird adapter<br />
<br />
wow, even Raspberry Pi has Ethernet, but no, not MacBook "Pro", you need to cash out more money for the stupid adapter.<br />
<br />
Problem 3 - No Operating System installer is provided, you need to download yourself making reinstalls very hard<br />
<br />
I have a 15 GB limit in my internet plan, and when I received my MacBook I needed GDB, which Apple was nasty enough to remove from the latest Xcode, so I need to use homebrew to install it, but some other software changed install_name_tool to a wrong version and the only solution is reinstalling the operating system.<br />
<br />
Ok, that's easy, isn't it? Well, it was easy in my previous MacBook. Just put the Mac OS X DVD into the drive and reinstall it.<br />
<br />
Ops, no install DVD was provided in the package. Ops, actually there is no DVD drive at all.<br />
<br />
Ok, so in this case we should restart the computer, press a secret key and boot the hidden install partition, right? No, the install partition has no Installer so it needs to download it from the internet.<br />
<br />
So I needed to download 5 GBs to reinstall the operating system, which causes the installer file to be deleted automatically so I had to again download the 5 GB installer in order to make a backup of it, because in the future if I ever need to do this again I already know that Apple will be assholes and will no longer provide a download for my Operating System.<br />
<br />
Problem 4 - No Downgrades<br />
<br />
I considered downgrading to 10.9 because GDB has so many issues in 10.10 but no, its impossible for no good reason other than that Apple doesn't want it. They don't even provide the 10.9 download again<br />
<br />
Problem 5 - No Upgrades, Unfixable<br />
<br />
RAM is soldered to the board, well, it's basically impossible to upgrade and impossible to fix yourself.<br />
<br />
Problem 6 - No DVD drive<br />
<br />
I didn't think they would remove it. I expect Air to be a stripped down version, but Pro??? What's the difference between MacBook "Pro" and Air nowadays anyway? I can't think of any difference.<br />
<br />
Problem 7 - Xcode doesn't allow installing older SDKs<br />
<br />
With my old MacBook I had Mac OS X 10.6 and Xcode so I could use a directive to make it create software compatible with 10.4+ by linking to the 10.4 SDK which was provided. Nope, not in the new MacBook, now you can only produce 10.10+ software. OMG ...<br />
<br />
Summing up:<br />
<br />
Apple is no Files. Apple is planned obsolecense. Apple is unfixable. Apple is unupgradable. Apple is a walled garden with huge spikes in the wall. Apple is no choice of OS version. There is no Freedom.</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-32120271563308147352014-12-12T08:12:00.001-08:002014-12-13T06:01:56.781-08:00Investing in Iron Ore is really investing in Construction in China<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
When I first started interresting myself for the iron ore industry I though: ok, I know that Steel is a horrible business, with overproduction, I know that China has a construction bubble with houses being built that noone will use, but iron, that sounds nicer! It probably has a lot of other uses besides still, and has a pretty decent price. It can't possibly fall back to the same prices like 5 years ago... except that it did:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZTGd6LA36Xa-MxiGfORfoy29MpUFzO2oQDPit_XpF-wFcu59ljOHwagR7wGYP077w98J0NXefTI2n-KaY3xMtGFf2p-_Sdjy0cG7BMWFO-oS2oNWGFqA0pj6lyvNLmgSn5O7FF04-CfXX/s1600/barchart-iron-ore-dec.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZTGd6LA36Xa-MxiGfORfoy29MpUFzO2oQDPit_XpF-wFcu59ljOHwagR7wGYP077w98J0NXefTI2n-KaY3xMtGFf2p-_Sdjy0cG7BMWFO-oS2oNWGFqA0pj6lyvNLmgSn5O7FF04-CfXX/s1600/barchart-iron-ore-dec.png" height="281" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
If you look at the bigger picture, unfortunately there might be still much more room to fall. One might thing: Oh, if they had big profits in 2007 with iron ore at US$35, why not now with iron ore at $68? Well, at that time the costs were much lower, mining taxes around the world were lower, salaries were much, much lower, etc. With time, every mine loses productivity as the best parts are extracted first. It's not really clear that Vale can profit now with iron ore at $68 like it profited in 2007 with iron ore at $35. Their current level of productivity clearly says that they cannot do that, although the management claims to be cutting costs.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmzgMXUuczbV46msV5c3dl3ToVQ_hdKc7IysGCu6UZGwTcRvzAbkEdW1W5kVdWbSObeF2nxKmOt9kDwX8vOypFzTw6JYOEbQhZdO5jnheKpNvEnNkA-GlpUcrXdR9bpUcAXne2cf0s-Fr2/s1600/iron_ore_chart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmzgMXUuczbV46msV5c3dl3ToVQ_hdKc7IysGCu6UZGwTcRvzAbkEdW1W5kVdWbSObeF2nxKmOt9kDwX8vOypFzTw6JYOEbQhZdO5jnheKpNvEnNkA-GlpUcrXdR9bpUcAXne2cf0s-Fr2/s1600/iron_ore_chart.png" /></a></div>
<br />
So what went wrong? What did I miss? Why shouldn't I have trusted that iron ore prices would stay high?<br />
<br />
<b>1> Iron ore is really only used to make Steel</b><br />
<br />
99% of iron ore demand is for steel production. Iron pellots and coke coal are also used only to make steel.<br />
<br />
<b>2> The world-wide steel industry has a cronic overcapacity problem</b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
This year, steel mills around the world have a production capacity of 1.8 billion tons but will take orders for only 1.5 billion tons. And instead of consolidating and becoming more efficient, the industry is building still more capacity. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
By 2016, an estimated 100 new mills, with total estimated supply capacity of 350 million tons, are expected to come on stream, according to industry executives and consultants. Companies in Vietnam, Argentina, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, all backed in some way by their governments, are building or planning new mills. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Officials in these countries say they want to invest in industrial development, supply homegrown steel to their manufacturers and cut imports. But what may appear to be welcome developments for local economies has reverberations through a global industry.<br />
"You see people wanting to build new facilities all the time, all over the world," says Dan DiMicco, CEO of Nucor Corp. NUE -1.34% , the second-biggest U.S. steelmaker, and a proponent of more consolidation. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"You can argue about what needs to happen next," said Charles Bradford, an analyst with New York-based Bradford Research Inc. "But no question: there is too much capacity."<br />
Getting a definite count on the number of steel mills in the world and actual production capacity is difficult in large part, say industry officials and analysts, because there are hundreds of small, uncounted mills in China, which accounts for 46% of world steel output. Estimates for the number of steel mills in China range from 600 to 800 mills.</blockquote>
sources:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1570891/chinas-steel-industry-burdened-overcapacity-workers-baulk">http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1570891/chinas-steel-industry-burdened-overcapacity-workers-baulk</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324595904578116761144046732">http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324595904578116761144046732</a><br />
<br />
<b>3> China accounts for half of the world iron ore consumption</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2012/03/20/1226305/617054-120321-b-bhp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2012/03/20/1226305/617054-120321-b-bhp.jpg" height="225" width="400" /></a></div>
<b>4> Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale and everyone else is growing their iron ore outputs non-stop:</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/ems.wf.net.au_production/assets/25215/web_image_article/Mining_graphs_03_R.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://s3.amazonaws.com/ems.wf.net.au_production/assets/25215/web_image_article/Mining_graphs_03_R.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>5> Steel in China is really dependent in it's usage for the construction of new buildings:</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwqb6HQ4gcvL8e7tPzIhzWrmdlwWz1ySdEJh5jYIjnVh53e-d2N_JbaG-XzWFpTo-TE5ScKxp2-8NLtOP_-cSP8UgHcaIBxuzohkkbINVd3etzjDkAbKt5wq5sHklKPZF5WMyymP58jyTL/s1600/4-3-12-id-5-china_demand.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwqb6HQ4gcvL8e7tPzIhzWrmdlwWz1ySdEJh5jYIjnVh53e-d2N_JbaG-XzWFpTo-TE5ScKxp2-8NLtOP_-cSP8UgHcaIBxuzohkkbINVd3etzjDkAbKt5wq5sHklKPZF5WMyymP58jyTL/s1600/4-3-12-id-5-china_demand.png" height="290" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>6> China has already too many empty buildings</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/5395f35f6bb3f70e0995212d-1200-700/kang-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/5395f35f6bb3f70e0995212d-1200-700/kang-3.jpg" height="372" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Source: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-ghost-cities-in-2014-2014-6">http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-ghost-cities-in-2014-2014-6</a><br />
<br />
Source: <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/10/28/in-china-theres-not-one-city-sans-terrifying-stretches-of-empty-houses/">http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/10/28/in-china-theres-not-one-city-sans-terrifying-stretches-of-empty-houses/</a><br />
<br />
<b>7> Steel is also used to build cars, but some manufacturers are moving to aluminium</b><br />
<br />
source: <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/fords-new-aluminum-bodied-f-150-truck-more-gas-efficient-1416591524">http://www.wsj.com/articles/fords-new-aluminum-bodied-f-150-truck-more-gas-efficient-1416591524</a><br />
<br />
<b>Conclusion:</b><br />
Things look really ugly for the future of iron ore prices!!!</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-47536454356922173482014-12-12T07:57:00.000-08:002014-12-12T07:57:00.049-08:00Ukraine is near bankrupcy<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Today I was searching the bond markets and I found something funny. I usually order the bonds by how much profit you can have from them and start skipping the usual suspects which always appear in the top: Venezuela (hiperinflation, crashing economy, oil price crash, etc), Argentina (pretty much by tradition they never repay their debts) and Greece. And guess who was among them, actually with a *worse* credit rating? Ukraine. And here is why:<br />
<br />
<b>1> Ukraine needs an endless amount of money to avoid bankrupcy:</b><br />
<br />
Ukrainian economy is collapsing:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Ukraine economy is on the brink of collapse after the International Monetary Fund identified a $15 billion shortfall in government funding that will need to be plugged "within weeks," according to the Financial Times. source: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/imf-ukraine-faces-bankruptcy-over-15-billion-bailout-2014-12#ixzz3Lh9Dc7Rn">http://www.businessinsider.com/imf-ukraine-faces-bankruptcy-over-15-billion-bailout-2014-12#ixzz3Lh9Dc7Rn</a> </blockquote>
Ukraine already received more than US$ 8 billions from the IMF:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"The IMF has pledged $17 billion of funding for the country, and other donors have also chipped in with pledges of another $10 billion, of which Ukraine has received $8.2 billion." source <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/imf-ukraine-faces-bankruptcy-over-15-billion-bailout-2014-12#ixzz3LhO9g282">http://www.businessinsider.com/imf-ukraine-faces-bankruptcy-over-15-billion-bailout-2014-12#ixzz3LhO9g282</a> and <a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-european-union-demands-that-russia-bail-out-both-the-eu-and-ukraine/5419318">http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-european-union-demands-that-russia-bail-out-both-the-eu-and-ukraine/5419318</a></blockquote>
Ukraine already received 1,6 billions euros from EU taxpayers:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"The EU has already handed out some €850 million in loans and grants to Ukraine since a pro-Western government took office at the end of February." ... "The European Union’s executive body is close to signing off on two disbursement of loans promised to Ukraine that would give Kiev about 760 million ($965 million) in additional funding by the end of the year, two senior officials said Tuesday." source: <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-to-give-next-batch-of-loans-to-ukraine-1414523336">http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-to-give-next-batch-of-loans-to-ukraine-1414523336</a></blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"A loan was received on very favorable conditions,” the minister assured. “It is 15 years, interest rate at 1.375 percent, due in 2029. It will go on macro-financial assistance to our country," assured the minister. source: <a href="http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/ukraine_receives_loan_of_eur_500_million_from_eu_327655">http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/ukraine_receives_loan_of_eur_500_million_from_eu_327655</a></blockquote>
And guess what? It's not nearly enough! Now the IMF says that Ukraine needs an extra 15 billions within weeks!<br />
<br />
<b>2> Ukrainian debt has a very short-term repayment schedule</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyVE6pWwLYLWucNxGN4i_THM1yCMXd14Verr1G7mT73BtBE8UZGN1kRSbD93U2Fmkn9119U1_xbrOXoi2IGm3ghBjaQM7jC_ZYe092NN-zB9PEzh4amhUR_6vxcSM7FQYsIeZzaH1mjj27/s1600/ukraine_debt.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyVE6pWwLYLWucNxGN4i_THM1yCMXd14Verr1G7mT73BtBE8UZGN1kRSbD93U2Fmkn9119U1_xbrOXoi2IGm3ghBjaQM7jC_ZYe092NN-zB9PEzh4amhUR_6vxcSM7FQYsIeZzaH1mjj27/s1600/ukraine_debt.png" height="440" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>3> Ukraine exports are facing a price crash and the loss of it's main custumer (Russia)</b><br /><br />40% of ukranian exports are iron ore and processed iron, further 10% are oil and coal. All three of these commodities have faced a approximately 50% loss in value this year, which could potentially make the exploration of those uneconomic and loss-making and therefore quality for the closure of mines and fields.<br />
<br />
Also since most coal mines are in the dombass region, production has crashed and noone will sell coal to Ukraine since they don't pay for what they buy, like in the gas example. Because of the lack of coal Ukraine experienced severe blackouts and needs to import electricity from Russia. source: <a href="http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/ukraine-to-allow-russian-electricity-imports-after-coal-supply-falters/512700.html">http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/ukraine-to-allow-russian-electricity-imports-after-coal-supply-falters/512700.html</a><br />
<br />
Exports of industrial products (helicopter engines, rail cars, jet engines, uranium fuel, electronics, etc) were mostly to Russia, who is no longer buying any of that. More than 60% of the exports goes to other former Soviet Republics countries with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus being the most important. To make things worse 70% of military exports from Ukraine went to Russia. source: <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-ukraine-arms-russia-20141125-story.html#page=1">http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-ukraine-arms-russia-20141125-story.html#page=1</a><br />
<br />
This means that ukrainian exports will fall dramatically, and therefore the country's currency will have to loose value constantly to rebalance. The incresed price of imports will push inflation to the roof. Actually this part is very similar to what is happened in Russia due to the crash in oil prices, but still, Ukraine is much more fragile than Russia and in a much worse shape to survive the storm.<br />
<br />
<b>4> Ukraine has a worse rating than even Argentina and Venezuela!</b><br />
<br />And it's bonds are crashing in the market, which means that Ukraine cannot get loans in the market, it is 100% dependent in the IMF and the European Union to provide growing amounts of crash. source:<br />
<a href="http://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=XS0330776617">http://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=XS0330776617</a><br /><br /><b>5> Ukraine continues it's war against the eastern regions of it's own country</b><br /><br />After every cease-fire Ukraine mounts a new offensive. All previous ones ended in disaster and changed almost nothing in terms of areas controlled. And yet they try again. I wonder who benefits from this? Certainly not the soldiers dying or the population being bombed in Donetsk.<br /><br /><b>Conclusion:</b><br /><br />The United States and the European Union are financing the bloodshed in dombass, since they are financing Ukraine. If they didn't, and sent signals that Ukraine should negotiate, then peace would be achieved, but instead Kiev only install temporary cease-fires to get more time to launch yet another offensive. Ukraine has no option but do what the USA and the EU tell them, because otherwise they will bankrupt immediately, since they have no money.</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-12960243741547773592014-12-11T07:31:00.001-08:002014-12-11T08:54:37.383-08:00Vale - Projetando como será 2015 se o minério continuar baixo<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
A grande questão que assombra os acionistas da Vale é: Sabendo que o preço do minério de ferro despencou, será que a empresa vai continuar lucrativa? Vai continuar pagando dividendos? Vai se endividar mais?<br />
<br />
Para tentar responder essas perguntas vou fazer as seguintes suposições:<br />
<br />
1> O minério de ferro se manterá em torno de US$70 em 2015<br />
2> O preço do carvão, dos metais de base e dos fertilizantes seguirá semelhante ao preço em 2014<br />
3> A Vale seguirá seu orçamento de investimentos de US$ 6.358 bilhões para projetos (principalmente S11D, Itabiritos e o carvão de mozambique) e US$ 3.809 bilhões de "sustaining CAPEX", que é na verdade o mínimo investimento necessário para que a produção das minas não caia, que seria o natural caso nada fosse investido, assim é como se fosse o investimento para recuperar a depreciação natural das minas. fonte: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/article/2014-12-02/akB1ki7Lw9oo.html">http://www.bloomberg.com/article/2014-12-02/akB1ki7Lw9oo.html</a><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkBafP_xOp7Y8jKmq4N4pim2Qcld5Cw26BtQjrdxO2KwPst7V8GJmg-KJ-shyPXhgqPZecXRWdAlc2tlfHyoxb4FwQNmqpf1-f6zvfAWeuwRA-e797SdHQrS7a-mmN_hcSoWiihenAWzm9/s1600/vale-minerio-de-ferro.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkBafP_xOp7Y8jKmq4N4pim2Qcld5Cw26BtQjrdxO2KwPst7V8GJmg-KJ-shyPXhgqPZecXRWdAlc2tlfHyoxb4FwQNmqpf1-f6zvfAWeuwRA-e797SdHQrS7a-mmN_hcSoWiihenAWzm9/s1600/vale-minerio-de-ferro.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Imagem: Terminal Marítimo de minério de ferro de Ponta da Madeira, no Maranhão</div>
<br />
<b>Calculando o fluxo de caixa da Vale em 2015</b><br />
<br />
O fluxo de caixa da Vale deverá ter a seguinte forma em 2015:<br />
<br />
Entradas:<br />
<br />
1.1> EBITDA com metais ferrosos - A grande incognita. Com o preço a US$90 no 3T14 a Vale teve um EBITDA de metais ferrosos de US$ 10 bilhões anualizado, mas o preço caiu muito. Mesmo considerando que a Vale projeta economizar US$10 por tonelada, ainda é um tombo enorme até o preço atual abaixo de US$70 .... podemos chutar um EBITDA de US$5 bilhões nessa divisão e ainda será algo otimista!<br />
1.2> EBITDA com metais de base - Analisando os últimos trimestres podemos chutar um EBITDA de US$ 3 bilhões com metais de base<br />
1.3> Venda de ativos - estimada entre US5 bi e US$10 bi no último transcript da Vale, vou usar o menor valor na 1a análise, pois acredito que a Vale somente deve ter uns US$ 5 bilhões mesmo de ativos ruins para vender, além disso somente com uma venda de ativos bons, como o plano de IPO da divisão de metais de base, que gera caixa no curto prazo, mas acaba com a empresa no longo prazo. fonte: <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/2735115-vales-vale-ceo-murilo-ferreira-hosts-vale-day-2014-london-transcript">http://seekingalpha.com/article/2735115-vales-vale-ceo-murilo-ferreira-hosts-vale-day-2014-london-transcript</a><br />
1.4> Aumento da dívida - a ser determinado<br />
<br />
Saídas:<br />
<br />
2.1> Juros da dívida - US$ 1,9 bilhões fonte: <a href="http://felipemonteirodecarvalho.blogspot.com/2014/11/perspectivas-para-vale-do-rio-doce.html">http://felipemonteirodecarvalho.blogspot.com/2014/11/perspectivas-para-vale-do-rio-doce.html</a><br />
2.2> Investimentos em projetos - US$ 6,4 bilhões<br />
2.3> Sustaining CAPEX - US$ 3,8 bilhões<br />
2.4> Prejuízos com operações de carvão em Mozambique - US$0,5 bilhões<br />
2.5> Gastos administrativos e outros prejuízos - US$0,5 bilhões<br />
2.6> Imposto sobre os lucros - Como o dólar vai continuar subindo e com as commodities em crise,, acredito que a Vale possa continuar tendo prejuízos e assim não precisaria pagar imposto sobre os lucros<br />
2.7> Dividendos - A ser determinado<br />
<br />
Resultado até agora:<br />
<br />
Entradas: US$ 13 bilhões<br />
<br />
Saídas: US$ 13,1 bilhões<br />
<br />
Assim eu calculei que mesmo vendendo ativos não-essenciais a Vale terá de se endividar para pagar cada centavo de dividendos! Agora eu entendo a seguinte passagem do último transcript da Vale:<br />
<br />
"Tony Robson<br />
Tony Robson, Bank of Montreal. One of the last slides suggested that to generate your net free cash flow for 2015, in fact you would need those $5 billion to $10 billion of asset sales. On today’s spot iron ore price, I have Vale borrowing essentially every cent for the dividend without those assumptions. To what extent in the first half of next year if say those transactions occur later in the year or middle of the year would Vale be willing to borrow to fund a dividend? First question." source: <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/2735115-vales-vale-ceo-murilo-ferreira-hosts-vale-day-2014-london-transcript">http://seekingalpha.com/article/2735115-vales-vale-ceo-murilo-ferreira-hosts-vale-day-2014-london-transcript</a><br />
<br />
É verdade! Concordo com o Tony Robson!<br />
<br />
Meu chute é que a Vale ira diminuir os dividendos, mas não tanto a ponto de cortar totalmente, mesmo que isso signifique aumentar sua dívida ou vender ativos essenciais. A Vale precisa pagar pelo menos 3% do patrimonio líquido em dividendos para seus acionistas VALE5 PN. Para evitar o vexame de emitir dividendos distintos para as ações ON e PN a Vale precisa pagar pelo menos R$155 bi * 3% = R$4,65 bi = US$1,8 bi. Assim penso que a Vale provavelmente irá pagar um valor um pouco superior a este mínimo, pagara algo como US$2 bilhões, que daria algo como R$1 por ação, por exemplo R$0,50 em abril e R$0,50 em outubro.<br />
<br />
<b>Minha análise sobre o plano do IPO dos metais de base</b><br />
<br />
A Vale planeja vender 40% de sua divisão de metais de base por aprox. US$13 bilhões. Isso irá diminuir a dívida da Vale no mesmo valor, pois ou o dinheiro será usado para pagar a dívida ou então ele evitará que a Vale crie dívidas novas para investir ou pagar dividendos. US$13 bilhões a juros de 6% ao ano são US$ 780 milhões por ano de juros. Por outro lado 40% do EBITDA da divisão de metais de base (que estimo em US$3 bilhões p/ 2015) é US$1,2 bilhões. Assim vemos que a perda de lucro será 65% mais que a economia com juros! Não faz sentido esse IPO e ele irá lesar os acionistas da Vale =( Se ele ocorrer para mim será um motivo para perder a confiança na administração da empresa e pensar em vender. Esse IPO é o contrário do que a Vale deveria fazer! Ao invés de investir em minério de ferro que se mostrou excessívalmente sazonal e em carvão na África, que só dá prejuízos, a Vale deveria focar mais em metais de base e logística! Mas ela últimamente tem vendido suas participações em Logística e agora planeja vender os metais de base também! Para mim esse IPO cheira a desespero. Pra que vender a prata da família?? Prefiro me endividar mais do que vender a prata da família. E tem mais, a Vale poderia emitir debentures em Euro que estão com juros baixíssimos. Ela poderia facilmente conseguir emitir debentures a meros 4% de juros em euro!<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi9uh7MabVevm-SwwP4Zq0r3uqddO7wdAz1rA_QYOWPXhOOxNb8E-tr5sJBMvF3vBU-7wFMeCu5wHwT6Pqx0nW6tuiVvIeKeMXs-oRkOnFCccvcQXoNX_LhTNiZo-NCeioq9_9KJO1iQ_k/s1600/vale-sudbury-nickel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi9uh7MabVevm-SwwP4Zq0r3uqddO7wdAz1rA_QYOWPXhOOxNb8E-tr5sJBMvF3vBU-7wFMeCu5wHwT6Pqx0nW6tuiVvIeKeMXs-oRkOnFCccvcQXoNX_LhTNiZo-NCeioq9_9KJO1iQ_k/s1600/vale-sudbury-nickel.jpg" height="606" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Imagem: Mina de Nickel da Vale em Sudbury - Canada</div>
<br />
<b>Conclusão</b><br />
<br />
Concluo que há 3 cenários possíveis para 2015:<br />
<br />
1> Se os preços dos minérios se mantiveram baixos, na melhor das hipóteses a Vale em 2015 irá pagar R$1 por ação de dividendos, terá um EBITDA de US$ 8 bilhões, aumentará sua dívida em US$2 bilhões venderá seus ativos ruins como os de carvão na África.<br />
<br />
2> Se os preços dos minérios se mantiverem baixos e a Vale realizar o IPO dos metais de base prevejo que a dívida irá diminuir bastante e poderemos ter dividendos enormes, talvez até US$1 por ação em 2015. Por outro lado isso irá sacrificar os lucros futuros da empresa (2016 e além) e assim eu terei menos confiança na Vale.<br />
<br />
3> Se os preços do minério de ferro subirem para aprox. US$90 é glória para os acionistas da Vale, teremos lucros enormes, dividendos gordos, etc. Mas atualmente ninguém acredita nesse cenário. Eu pessoalmente não acredito, mas não podemos descartar pois é possível! Da mesma forma que caiu, pode subir também, oras.<br />
<br /></div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-51517076350260759602014-12-01T14:44:00.001-08:002014-12-01T14:45:08.332-08:00BR Properties - Locação de imóveis comerciais<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
A BR Properties é uma empresa de locação de comerciais. A maioria dos prédios que a empresa loca foram construidos pela própria empresa e são prédios de padrão AAA alugados para grandes empresas. A empresa tem finanças saudáveis, com um Fluxo Financeiro Operacional razoável, dividendos razoaveis e uma direção bastante satisfatória, que tomou medidas adequadas neste momento de crise no Brasil para diminuir a dívida, distribuir dividendos e manter a empresa lucrativa. Mas então por que a cotação caí há dois anos já? E será que a empresa é um bom investimento hoje ao preço de R$10,50 que equivale a mais ou menos 0,5 vezes o valor patrimonial da empresa, ou a empresa é ruim e vai continuar caindo? É isso que tentarei desvendar neste artigo.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih654wjbY9Sz7BITNwSxbNG-j9wAP-H6jovt4IjobT5wwo-6V5zjkfAixmbu4y6LrAG8pCtrl7N_CUeMBOGYw75Z-wVAmGxT-m7NNnYCNUCxMTuJvnYA7LNa-59hc6o5Ui6tJG-BI1jMWf/s1600/brpr1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih654wjbY9Sz7BITNwSxbNG-j9wAP-H6jovt4IjobT5wwo-6V5zjkfAixmbu4y6LrAG8pCtrl7N_CUeMBOGYw75Z-wVAmGxT-m7NNnYCNUCxMTuJvnYA7LNa-59hc6o5Ui6tJG-BI1jMWf/s1600/brpr1.jpg" height="228" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>Por que caí a 2 anos?</b><br />
<br />
A empresa caiu pois ela subiu muito nos anos anteriores quando os imóveis se valorizavam rapidamente. Houve uma bolha imobiliária no Brasil e agora ela está murchando. Não acho que haverá uma explosão da bolha e uma catástrofe como na Espanha, onde os imóveis ficaram extremamente baratos da noite pro dia, mas sim que os imóveis no Brasil nos próximos anos devem simplesmente ter uma valorização inferior a inflação de 6,5%, então a bolha irá simplesmente murchar lentamente trazendo os imóveis de volta a seu preço justo daqui a 5 anos, Isso é exatamente o que ocorreu na Polônia de 2009 a 2014, aonde se pode observar o lento murchar dos preços inflados.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b>Finanças da Empresa</b><br />
<br />
Eu sempre começo a analizar uma empresa com a tabelinha que mostra trimestre a trimestre como vai a receita e o lucro dela. A receita e o lucro devem subir ano a ano num empresa boa. No caso de empresas de imóveis não ligar muito para o valor do lucro, pois muitas empresas de imóveis colocam a valorização não realizada de seus imóveis e isso é um efeito virtual que não trás dinheiro real para o bolso do acionista. Mas não se preocupe, há um outro indicador, o "Fluxo Financeiro Operacional" que é um equivalente do lucro tradicional. Ele conta o Fluxo de Caixa Operacional da empresa e subtraí disso o gasto com juros, e isso é exatamente o que "lucro" que eu procuro numa empresa! Então vamos aos dados básicos da BR Properties:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellspacing="0">
<colgroup width="98"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="70"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="69"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="67"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="68"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="59"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="55"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="48"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="51"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="16">Ano</td>
<td align="left">Patrimonio</td>
<td align="left">Receita líquida</td>
<td align="left">Lucro (BASTTER, incluí valorizacão)</td>
<td align="left">Lucro (FFO ajustado, não incluí valorizacão)</td>
<td align="left">Caixa</td>
<td align="left">Dívidas</td>
<td align="left">Cotação</td>
<td align="left"># Ações</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="16"><br /></td>
<td align="left">M R$</td>
<td align="left">M R$</td>
<td align="left">M R$</td>
<td align="left">M R$</td>
<td align="left">M R$</td>
<td align="left">M R$</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left">M</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="16">1T11</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="78">78</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="22">22</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="24">24</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17,3">17,3</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="139,5">139,5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="16">2T11</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="84">84</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="158">158</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="36">36</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17,6">17,6</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="174,7">174,7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="16">3T11</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="91">91</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="84">84</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="42">42</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17,2">17,2</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="180">180</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="16">4T11</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3693">3693</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="90">90</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="71">71</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="35">35</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1032">1032</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2083">2083</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17,9">17,9</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="180">180</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">1T12</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="101">101</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="453">453</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="41">41</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="310">310</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">2T12</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="161">161</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="332">332</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5">5</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="23">23</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="310">310</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">3T12</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="168">168</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="259">259</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="30">30</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="23,8">23,8</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="310">310</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">4T12</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8015">8015</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="201">201</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="183">183</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="65">65</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="574">574</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5252">5252</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="25,8">25,8</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="311,6">311,6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">Total 2012</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="631" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">631</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1227" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">1227</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="141" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">141</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="16">1T13</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8192">8192</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="226">226</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="85">85</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="77">77</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="771">771</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5529">5529</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="21">21</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="311">311</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="16">2T13</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8092">8092</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="238">238</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="49">49</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="88,8">88,8</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="661">661</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5682">5682</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="19">19</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="311">311</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="16">3T13</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8187">8187</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="237">237</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="99">99</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="75">75</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="840">840</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5369">5369</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="18">18</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="311">311</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="16">4T13</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7711">7711</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="223">223</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-149">-149</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="66">66</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="951">951</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5592">5592</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="17">17</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="311">311</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">Total 2013</td>
<td align="left" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="924" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">924</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="84" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">84</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="306,8" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">306,8</td>
<td align="left" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">1T14</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7734">7734</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="233">233</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="59">59</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="57">57</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="814">814</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5536">5536</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17">17</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="311">311</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">2T14</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6104">6104</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="223">223</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="183">183</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="65">65</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="790">790</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4991">4991</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6">13 a 15,5</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="311">311</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">3T14</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6218">6218</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="191">191</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="191">191</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="62">62</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="603">603</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4166">4166</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6">13 a 15</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="311">311</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">4T14</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">Total 2014</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="647" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">647</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="433" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">433</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="184" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">184</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table border="0" cellspacing="0">
<colgroup width="48"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="51"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="59"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="73"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="56"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="51"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="56"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="55"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="49"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="48"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17">Ano</td>
<td align="left"># Ações</td>
<td align="left">VPA por ação</td>
<td align="left">L por ação</td>
<td align="left">L FFO por ação</td>
<td align="left">Dividendos</td>
<td align="left">Área – Escritórios</td>
<td align="left">Área – Galpões</td>
<td align="left">Área – Varejo</td>
<td align="left">Vacância → desde 2T14 Vacancia Escritorios</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17"><br /></td>
<td align="left">M</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left">R$</td>
<td align="left">R$</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left">1000m2</td>
<td align="left">1000m2</td>
<td align="left">1000m2</td>
<td align="left">Financeira</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17">1T11</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="139,5">139,5</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,157706093189964">0,16</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,172043010752688">0,17</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0">0</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17">2T11</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="174,7">174,7</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,90440755580996">0,9</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,206067544361763">0,21</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,1">0,1</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17">3T11</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="180">180</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,466666666666667">0,47</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,233333333333333">0,23</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0">0</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="300">300</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="767">767</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="101">101</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17">4T11</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="180">180</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="20,5166666666667">20,52</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,394444444444444">0,39</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,194444444444444">0,19</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0">0</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="298">298</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="767">767</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="99">99</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">1T12</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="310">310</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1,46129032258065">1,46</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,132258064516129">0,13</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0">0</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="398">398</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1144">1144</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="114">114</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#EEEEEE" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1,1">1,1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">2T12</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="310">310</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1,07096774193548">1,07</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,0161290322580645">0,02</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,19">0,19</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="472">472</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1144">1144</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="114">114</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#EEEEEE"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">3T12</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="310">310</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,835483870967742">0,84</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,0967741935483871">0,1</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0">0</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="472">472</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1144">1144</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="114">114</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#EEEEEE"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">4T12</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="311,6">311,6</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="25,7220795892169">25,72</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,587291399229782">0,59</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,208600770218228">0,21</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0">0</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="597">597</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1190">1190</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="114">114</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#EEEEEE"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">Total 2012</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3,95503333471365" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">3,96</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,453762060540809" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">0,45</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,19" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">0,19</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17">1T13</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="311">311</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="26,3408360128617">26,34</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,273311897106109">0,27</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,247588424437299">0,25</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0">0</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="619">619</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1190">1190</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="114">114</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8,9">8,9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17">2T13</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="311">311</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="26,0192926045016">26,02</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,157556270096463">0,16</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,285530546623794">0,29</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,51">0,51</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="618">618</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1213">1213</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="114">114</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10,8">10,8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17">3T13</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="311">311</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="26,3247588424437">26,32</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,318327974276527">0,32</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,241157556270096">0,24</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="597">597</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1228">1228</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="114">114</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="10,5">10,5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17">4T13</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;0;# ##0" sdval="311">311</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="24,7942122186495">24,79</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-0,479099678456592">-0,48</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,212218649517685">0,21</td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="left"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1228">1228</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="114">114</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8,6">8,6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">Total 2013</td>
<td align="left" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,270096463022508" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">0,27</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,986495176848874" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">0,99</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,51" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">0,51</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1834" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">1834</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4859" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">4859</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="456" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">456</td>
<td align="right" sdnum="1045;" sdval="38,8" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">38,8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">1T14</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="311">311</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="24,8681672025723">24,87</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,189710610932476">0,19</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,183279742765273">0,18</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="602">602</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1228">1228</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="114">114</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#EEEEEE" sdnum="1045;" sdval="8,1">8,1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">2T14</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="311">311</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="19,6270096463023">19,63</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,588424437299035">0,59</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,209003215434084">0,21</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6,01">6,01</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="602">602</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="361">361</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="114">114</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#EEEEEE" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9,6">9,6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">3T14</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="311">311</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="19,9935691318328">19,99</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,614147909967846">0,61</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,19935691318328">0,2</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="588">588</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="361">361</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="15">15</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#EEEEEE" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9,2">9,2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17">4T14</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#EEEEEE"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" height="17" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">Total 2014</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1,39228295819936" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">1,39</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="0,591639871382637" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">0,59</td>
<td align="right" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" sdnum="1045;" sdval="6,01" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;">6,01</td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
<td align="left" bgcolor="#E6E6E6" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;"><br /></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Analisando a tabela da BR Properties dá pra ver que a empresa está bem:<br />
<br />
1> Ela passou pelo momento dífícil do mercado de imóveis no Brasil em 2014 com FFO positivo em todos trimestres<br />
2> Ela diminuiu sua dívida<br />
3> O FFO é suficiente para pagar os dividendos de R$0,50 por ano<br />
<br />
Mas há também uma resalva que faz com que os dados acima sejam bons, mas não excelentes: O FFO é de cerca de R$0,80 por ano por ação, que é suficiente para pagar R$0,50 mas não para expandi-lo. Para pagar mais dividendos o mercado precisa melhorar e os preços dos alugueis subir. Por isso a empresa é tão dependente do mercado. Se fizermos uma pressuposição razoável de que nos próximos anos os alugueis irão se valorizar somente o mesmo que a inflação, daí a renda de R$0,50 por ano parece pequena, meros 5% + proteção contra inflação com a cotação atual de R$10,50. Isso é quase o mesmo que se pode obter no tesouro direto ou numa boa debenture!<br />
<br />
<b>Medidas da administração para contornar a crise</b><br />
<br />
A empresa fez várias vendas de ativos para diminuir a dívida. Abaixo uma lista dos últimos:<br />
<br />
3T13 - vendeu Edifício Pateo Bandeirantes – Escritório AAA – São Paulo/SP – Área 17,5 mil m2, por R$442 M<br />
<br />
1T14 - Vendeu todos galpões por R$3,18 bilhoes, distribuiu R$5,5 de dividendos por ação e pagou dívidas.<br />
<br />
3T14 - Vendeu cotas do fundo Imobiliario Comercial Progressivo II por R$426 milhoes + cancelamento de dívida de 181 milhões<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Com a subida dos juros é importante controlar a dívida e é muito bom saber que temos uma administração competente que sabe disso e trabalha no sentido de diminuir a dívida. Quanto menos dívida, menos juros pagos e quanto menos juros pagos, mais lucro para distribuir para o acionista e crescer a empresa!<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAKENtq_GgJsqTM6oHnvdWjnu8JhRPA5VG2V63fOqZtKYJnK18J8G4h5wQqfgXrbOoB-sMbpBinJPXhdtVLM9PFbFXbR9LQYemFxJM8RVblcs8al10YryPeO1oxM3hUBPsuWC-iz6NZV2_/s1600/brpr2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAKENtq_GgJsqTM6oHnvdWjnu8JhRPA5VG2V63fOqZtKYJnK18J8G4h5wQqfgXrbOoB-sMbpBinJPXhdtVLM9PFbFXbR9LQYemFxJM8RVblcs8al10YryPeO1oxM3hUBPsuWC-iz6NZV2_/s1600/brpr2.jpg" height="228" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<b>Conclusão</b><br />
<br />
A BR Properties é um investimento decente, como mostrei acima e está bastante discontada a 0,5x Valor Patrimonial, mas a empresa somente irá voltar a valer mais do que a cotação atual quando o mercado imobiliario no Brasil voltar a se aquecer e isso somente ocorrerá quando a economia voltar a crescer!</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-8161628966785166852014-11-25T04:35:00.001-08:002014-11-27T07:10:37.764-08:00Perspectivas para a Vale do Rio Doce durante a crise do minério<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Em 2014 o minério de ferro caiu de US$138 por tonelada (Dez/2013) para US$70 (Nov/2014), uma queda de quase 50% no metal que é de longe o maior responsável pela receita e pelos lucros da Vale. O segundo produto mais produzido pela Vale é o carvão, que caiu mais de 50% desde que teve seu pico de US$200 por tonelada (3T2011) para US$90 por tonelada no 3T14. Cobre e Níquel, Platina e Ouro também caíram, embora muito menos. Isto tudo gerou uma crise enorme no setor de mineração que parecia viver um "El Dorado" nos anos pós-crise. Hoje já há quem diga que o minério ficará barato pelo resto da decada e os resultados recentes da empresa tem sido cada vez piores. Pra quem se interessa pela empresa só resta uma coisa a fazer: calcular e acompanhar a empresa para saber se ela continuará um bom investimento, e é isso que tentarei fazer aqui.<br />
<br />
<b>Visão Geral</b><br />
<br />
Os dados mais importantes de uma empresa para mim são o "Fluxo de Caixa Operacional" e os gastos com juros da dívida. O que sobra é dinheiro livre que a empresa pode usar para investir (e assim crescer) e pagar dividendos. Além disso no caso da Vale é importante ainda verificar o resultado das suas várias "Business Units" para saber em qual material vale mais a pena investir.<br />
<br />
Na tabela abaixo eu coloquei o "Fluxo de Caixa Operacional" total, da Vale inteira e ainda o EBITA de cada "Business Unit". Eu calculo o EBITA de uma "Business Unit" como sendo EBITDA menos "Sustaining Capex", que é o custo pra manter a produção, investimentos indispensáveis pra coisa ficar como está e a produção não cair, que é basicamente o mesmo que o quanto a empresa gasta para a mina não depreciar.<br />
<br />
E inventei ainda uma fórmula para tentar "adivinhar" qual seria o EBITA da Vale a vários preços do minério de ferro. A Formula que achei é EBITA de 1 trimestre com ferro = 70 * Preço do minério de ferro - 4500, dando o resultado em M R$ por trimestre. Essa formula é ótima para o período de 2013 e 2014, mas não funciona nada para 2005, 2006, 2007, pois os custos da Vale naquela época eram muito menores. Com essa formula cheguei ao número de EBITA 400 M R$ para um minério a US$70 e -300 M R$ para um minério a US$60. Números assustadores! Segue a tabela:<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cols="6">
<colgroup width="98"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="70"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="69"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="67"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="68"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="59"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16"><b>Ano</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Fluxo de Caixa Operacional</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Minério de Ferro</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>EBITA Ferrous</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Formula p/ EBITA Ferrous</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16"><b><br /></b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b><br /></b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>US$/ton</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>M US$</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>M R$</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2005">2005</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5161">5161</td>
<td align="LEFT">US$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="28">28,0</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2006">2006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7232">7232</td>
<td align="LEFT">US$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="33">33,0</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2007">2007</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="11012">11012</td>
<td align="LEFT">US$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="37">37,0</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2008">2008</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17114">17114</td>
<td align="LEFT">US$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="60">60,0</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2009">2009</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7136">7136</td>
<td align="LEFT">US$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="79,9941666666667">80,0</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2010">2010</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="19669">19669</td>
<td align="LEFT">US$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="146,72">146,7</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2011">2011</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="40101">40101</td>
<td align="LEFT">R$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="167,791666666667">167,8</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2012">2012</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="33081">33081</td>
<td align="LEFT">R$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="128,505">128,5</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">1T13</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="7963">7963</td>
<td align="LEFT">R$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="148,333333333333">148,3</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5128">5128</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="5883,33333333333">5883,33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">2T13</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT">R$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="125,4">125,4</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4278">4278</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">3T13</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4078">4078</td>
<td align="LEFT">R$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="132,8">132,8</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4796">4796</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">4T13</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT">R$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="134,666666666667">134,7</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4926,66666666667">4926,67</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">1T14</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="9158">9158</td>
<td align="LEFT">R$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="120,333333333333">120,3</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3923,33333333333">3923,33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">2T14</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="4596">4596</td>
<td align="LEFT">R$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="102,666666666667">102,7</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="3125">3125</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2686,66666666667">2686,67</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">3T14</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2942">2942</td>
<td align="LEFT">R$</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,0" sdval="90,3">90,3</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1900">1900</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1821">1821</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="70">70</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="400">400</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="60">60</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-300">-300</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Fiz ainda outra tabela muito semelhante para mostrar o o EBITA com outras áreas da Vale como os metais básicos (Níquel, Cobre, etc), com Carvão, Fertilizantes, etc. A primeira coisa e a mais importante a se notar aqui é que os números são muito baixos, mesmo a divisão de metais básicos que vai muito bem obrigado, não tem um EBITA que chegue aos pés do lucro da Vale com o minério de ferro! O minério de ferro é o coração da Vale, e não parece possível substituí-lo, a não ser com uma expansão imensa em Cobre, Ouro e Níquel, talvez.<br />
<br />
Essa tabela ainda mostrar que a divisão de Carvão está em perpétuo prejuízo, que os metais básicos melhoram muito seu desempenho devido ao corte de custos e que os Fertilizantes e os "Outros" não são grande coisa:<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cols="8">
<colgroup width="55"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="48"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="51"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="59"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="73"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="56"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="51"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="56"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16"><b>Ano</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Carvao Siderurgico</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>EBITDA Coal</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Níquel</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Cobre</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>EBITA Niquel, Cobre, etc</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>EBITA Fertilizantes</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>EBITA Outros</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>US$/ton</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>M US$</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>kUS$/t</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>kUS$/t</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>M US$</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>M US$</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>M US$</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2007">2007</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="89,125">89,13</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2008">2008</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="133,6875">133,69</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2009">2009</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="14,6701666666667">14,67</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="5,16583333333333">5,17</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2010">2010</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="21,8108333333333">21,81</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="7,53833333333333">7,54</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2011">2011</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-168">-168</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="RIGHT" height="16" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2012">2012</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-274">-274</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">1T13</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="119,4">119,40</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-72">-72</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="17,3">17,30</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="7,86666666666667">7,87</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="17">17</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-185">-185</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-55">-55</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">2T13</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="119,2">119,2</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="7,16666666666667">7,17</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">3T13</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="111,9">111,9</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="7,1">7,10</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">4T13</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="110,7">110,7</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">1T14</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="105,6">105,60</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">2T14</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="96,7">96,70</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-154">-154</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="350">350</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="22">22</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-103">-103</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">3T14</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-149">-149</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="18,5666666666667">18,57</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00" sdval="7">7,00</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="540">540</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="16">16</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="-201">-201</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b>Perspectivas no minério de ferro:</b><br />
<br />
Se a situação está ruim, pelo menos a Vale não está parada. Está em curso um investimento enorme que diminuirá muito os custos de produção da Vale, o S11D. O lado ruim é que o S11D somente começa a operar em 2016 e atingirá 90Mt somente em 2018...<br />
<br />
Outra coisa que a Vale fez recentemente foi colocar o diretor de "Metais básicos" como diretor de "Metais Ferrosos". Esse diretor foi responsável por um enorme corte de custos e fez a divisão dele sair de um resultado mediocre para um bom lucro. Acredito que ele foi escolhido justamente para cortar custos no minério de ferro! Uma ótima notícia para os acionistas.<br />
<br />
Algo que eu não sabia quando investi na empresa é que o minério de ferro basicamente só tem uma aplicação: fazer aço. E já se sabe há anos que há excesso de capacidade instalada de aço no mundo, era só uma questão de tempo até isso se reduzir. Eu apostava que os outros mercados emergentes iriam aumentar sua produção de aço, mas o que aconteceu foi o contrário, a China é que está diminuindo sua produção e realmente é uma loucura a China produzir 50% do aço mundial! Então a situação está ruim. O lado bom é que a China produz também metade do minério de ferro mundial, e com um custo de produção de US$120 por tonelada, assim o preço do minério irá se recuperar caso a China comece a fechar suas minas que agora estão afundadas num prejuízo amargo de dezenas de bilhões de dólares por ano. Um prejuízo desses somente pode se arrastar por um determinado tempo até que a empresa seja obrigada a fechar. Não é possível enganar a economia!<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b>O péssimo negócio com o Carvão em Mozambique:</b><br />
<br />
Além de dar prejuízo desde que a Vale entrou em Mozambique em 2005 (EBITA -185 M US$ no 3T14), a operação de carvão ainda tem um CAPEX imenso de um investimento em uma ferrovia e um porto, que eu considero como jogar dinheiro no lixo devido aos seguintes fatores:<br />
<br />
1> As minas da Vale em Mozambique davam prejuízo até mesmo no recorde de preço do carvão siderurgico em 2011, 2012 agora vão dar lucro com o carvão a menos de metade do preço recorde? Mesmo considerando o investimento é difícil...<br />
<br />
2> O carvão siderurgico está numa crise tremenda. Pra ter uma idéia, a Rio Tinto, empresa muito similar a Vale e maior concorrente, deu praticamente de graca a mina deles em Mozambique pra não ter que arcar com os prejuízos todo trimestre:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/rio-tinto-to-sell-mozambique-coal-assets-for-50-million-1406704712">http://online.wsj.com/articles/rio-tinto-to-sell-mozambique-coal-assets-for-50-million-1406704712</a><br />
<br />
Eles não são burros, se eles acham que tem que dar embora, eu confio mais na direção da Rio Tinto que a da Vale, pois eles não tem interferência estatal até onde sei.<br />
<br />
3> Na melhor das hipóteses, mesmo sendo extremamente otimista, após terminar esse investimento bilionário acho que a mina de Mozambique vai ter um resultado próximo de zero. Não, não vejo a miníma possibilidade dela se tornar algo que dá 1 bilhão de lucro por ano, ou qualquer outra quantia significativa. E mesmo se der lucro, a pressão dos africanos para repassar ele quase todo em benesses para os africanos será imensa.<br />
<br />
4> Africa é fogo, a Vale já perdeu toda a Mina na Guinea devido a um golpe de estado que mudou o ditador do país ... Investimento na Africa tem que ser muito rentável pois o risco é muito alto, coisa tipo ouro ou diamantes. Investir em algo que na melhor hipotese dará um lucro mediocre é furada...<br />
<br />
Conclusão: Tem que vender ou fechar a mina. Por que não fazem isso? Interferencia do governo brasileiro pra fazer bonito com Mozambique? Incompetência? Bom pelo menos há notícias de que a Vale já pensa em vender esse desastre:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/14/10/4924784/vale-sa-to-raise-capital-sell-ships-and-stake-in-africa-">http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/14/10/4924784/vale-sa-to-raise-capital-sell-ships-and-stake-in-africa-</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://allafrica.com/stories/201408042728.html">http://allafrica.com/stories/201408042728.html</a> - Mozambique: Vale Looking to Sell Stake in Mozambican Coal Assets - 4 August 2014<br />
<br />
<b>Gastos com juros da dívida</b><br />
<br />
Procurando nos mercados internacionais encontrei as seguintes debentures da Vale:<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cols="7">
<colgroup width="98"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="70"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="69"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="67"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="68"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="59"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="55"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">Link</td>
<td align="LEFT">Quantidade</td>
<td align="LEFT">Moeda</td>
<td align="LEFT">Koupon</td>
<td align="LEFT">Inicio</td>
<td align="LEFT">Fim</td>
<td align="LEFT">Juros (M)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><a href="http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A0ABYD-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe">http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A0ABYD-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe</a></span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="800">800</td>
<td align="LEFT">USD</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%" sdval="0,0825">8,25%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2004">2004</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2034">2034</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="66">66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><a href="http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A0GLVX-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe">http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A0GLVX-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe</a></span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1000">1000</td>
<td align="LEFT">USD</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%" sdval="0,0625">6,25%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2006">2006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2016">2016</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="62,5">62,5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><a href="http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A0G2E0-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe">http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A0G2E0-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe</a></span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1250">1250</td>
<td align="LEFT">USD</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%" sdval="0,0625">6,25%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2006">2006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2017">2017</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="78,125">78,13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><a href="http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A0G2EY-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe">http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A0G2EY-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe</a></span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2500">2500</td>
<td align="LEFT">USD</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%" sdval="0,06875">6,88%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2006">2006</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2036">2036</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="171,875">171,88</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><a href="http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1AMGT-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe">http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1AMGT-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe</a></span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1000">1000</td>
<td align="LEFT">USD</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%" sdval="0,05625">5,63%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2010">2010</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2019">2019</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="56,25">56,25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><a href="http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1APMZ-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe">http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1APMZ-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe</a></span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1000">1000</td>
<td align="LEFT">USD</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%" sdval="0,06875">6,88%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2010">2010</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2039">2039</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="68,75">68,75</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><a href="http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1A03Y-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe">http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1A03Y-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe</a></span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1000">1000</td>
<td align="LEFT">USD</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%" sdval="0,04625">4,63%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2011">2011</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2020">2020</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="46,25">46,25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><a href="http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1GY11-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe">http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1GY11-Vale-Overseas-Anleihe</a></span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1000">1000</td>
<td align="LEFT">USD</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%" sdval="0,04375">4,38%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2012">2012</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2022">2022</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="43,75">43,75</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><a href="http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1G9A9-Vale-Anleihe">http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1G9A9-Vale-Anleihe</a></span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1500">1500</td>
<td align="LEFT">USD</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%" sdval="0,05625">5,63%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2013">2013</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2042">2042</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="84,375">84,38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><a href="http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1AU7L-Vale-Anleihe">http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1AU7L-Vale-Anleihe</a></span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="750">750</td>
<td align="LEFT">EUR</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%" sdval="0,04375">4,38%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2011">2011</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2018">2018</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="32,8125">32,81</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="17"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><a href="http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1G62Y-Vale-Anleihe">http://www.finanzen.net/anleihen/A1G62Y-Vale-Anleihe</a></span></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="750">750</td>
<td align="LEFT">EUR</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%" sdval="0,0375">3,75%</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2013">2013</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="2023">2023</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="28,125">28,13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><br /></span></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1045;0;0,00%"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="16">Total</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="32125">32125</td>
<td align="LEFT">BRL</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1045;" sdval="1877,5">1877,5</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Como a dívida total da Vale é 71 bi R$ no 3T14, e considerando que parte do que eu não achei é em reais com juros maiores, a Vale precisa pagar R$ 5 bilhões por ano em juros.<br />
<br />
<b>Custo dos dividendos</b><br />
<br />
Para pagar um dividendo minimamente aceitável de RS$1,5 por ação a Vale precisa pagar R$ 8 bilhões por ano. Para um dividendo mais gordinho de R$1,9 seriam necessários R$ 10 bilhões.<br />
<br />
<b>Conclusão</b><br />
<br />
Infelizmente o lucro da excelente unidade de "Metais Básicos" é suficiente apenas para cobrir os prejuízos das unidades de carvão, outros e gastos administrativos. Assim o fardo de pagar R$ 5 bi por ano em juros e R$ 8 bi por anos em dividendos caí todo sobre a divisão de metais ferrosos! Considerando o resultado do "Fluxo de Caixa Operacional" recente da empresa cruzado com o preço do minério de ferro, a Vale vai ter que diminuir muito seus custos para conseguir o EBITA de R$ 13 bilhões por ano necessário para pagar R$1,5 em dividendos. Com o minério de ferro a US$ 90 o "Fluxo de Caixa Operacional" estava num ritmo de R$12 bilhões por ano, ou seja, estava "no limite"! E agora a previsão é que ele se mantenha a US$70 por anos... A US$70 com a eficiencia atual só da pra pagar os juros, não sobra nada para pagar dividendos.<br />
<br />
O cenário é extremamente desafiador para o investidor. Daqui pra frente tudo depende do preço do minério de ferro, que depende basicamente da economia da China, então ao invés de dar uma resposta única, direi o que acho da Vale de acordo com vários preços do minério de ferro:<br />
<br />
US$90 ou acima -> os acionistas podem abrir o champanhe e festejar!!! Os dividendos estão garantidos com esse nível de preço mesmo que a empresa não melhore!<br />
<br />
US$75 -> A Vale terá que cortar fundo seus custos para voltar a ter um resultado minimamente aceitável que seria continuar a pagar dividendos e fazer investimentos apenas mínimos, mas eu acho que a empresa é boa e conseguirá sobreviver nesse nível de preço.<br />
<br />
US$60 ou menos -> fuja para as montanhas!!! Acho que a Vale será forçada a cortar seu dividendo =(</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-12106447128959032022014-09-29T04:47:00.000-07:002014-09-29T06:41:48.817-07:00Vô Mario<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
O meu avô Mario sempre foi para mim um exemplo. Eu me identifico com ele, me vejo nele. Pena que não pude aprender com ele mais, pois nos últimos anos ele já estava cada vez mais doente com o Parkinson (ele estava na cadeira de rodas fazem acho que uns 10 anos). Eu me arrependo de não te-lo visitado tanto quanto poderia, mas agradeço a Deus por cada momento que passamos juntos.<br />
<br />
Vô Mario foi um homem trabalhador, nasceu pobre e toda sua vida trabalhou honestamente e criou seus 4 filhos. Ele sabia poupar e investir, e ainda me lembro de quando ele me mostrou suas planilhas de contabilidade, onde ele guardava minuciosamente as entradas e despesas de cada investimento dele, por exemplo de uma casinha alugada, ou de uma poupança. Me lembro quando pedi para ele me explicar essas planilhas dele e com base nisso eu criei meu próprio sistema para cuidar das minhas finanças.<br />
<br />
Vô Mario era um homem religioso, dedicado a sua igreja, a Congregação Cristã no Brasil e a sua esposa Éden. Ele era profundamente cristão, mas da maneira certa. Explico melhor: nunca ouvi do Vô Mario a atitude radical condenável de "apenas nós somos cristãos" que alguns cristãos tem, pelo contrário, ele sempre foi um conservador moderado. Ainda lembro como algo interessante o que uma vez ele me disse sobre o catolicismo: "eles eram a igreja mariense, nós ensinamos a eles a falar de Jesus", que é a maneira que eu vejo como o ideal para os vários grupos de cristãos conviverem: aprendendo juntos, debatendo civilizadamente.<br />
<br />
Algo que ainda quero aprender com o Vô Mario é a alegria do crente. A lição de que o crente deve deixar suas angustias e ansiedades com Jesus. Infelizmente esta lição eu ainda não dominei, ainda vivo muito pesadamente cada pequeno contratempo e obstáculo que aparece, mas ainda espero um dia aprender esta lição.<br />
<br />
Concluindo, mesmo estando aqui longe, sinto que eu, a Kasia e o Danielzinho temos muito em comum com o Vô Mario e tenho certeza que a nossa parte do legado dele florescerá e fará jus ao grande homem que ele foi. <span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px;">Dai-lhe Senhor o descanso eterno e que a Luz Perpétua o ilumine. Amém.</span><br />
<br />
Salmos 34:18 - O Senhor está perto dos que têm o coração quebrantado e salva os de espírito abatido.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.polyvore.com/cgi/img-thing?.out=jpg&size=l&tid=48528259" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.polyvore.com/cgi/img-thing?.out=jpg&size=l&tid=48528259" /></a></div>
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Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-28521228475052187402014-06-09T09:20:00.001-07:002014-06-09T09:20:45.910-07:00War in Ukraine<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
It's 1000 km and only 1 border change from here to where war is ragging in eastern Ukraine, so I've never been closer to war in my life and I am therefore interested in knowing what is going on there. The Syrian Civil War has been ragging for 3 years and degraded into a WW2 level of destruction, with months long sieges of cities and residential areas being leveled. Compared to that the Ukrainian conflict is many orders of magnitude less severe, but still, since it already includes mortar fire, cannon fire and even bombing from airplanes, it cannot be described in any way else then a war.<br />
<br />
Now a timeline of battles of the war:<br />
<br />
<b>40+ rebel militants burned to death in Odessa - 2/may/2014</b> - Decisive Ukrainian victory - 40+ rebel militants killed<br />
<br />
This shows how ugly things get when militants get involved in the conflict, as opposed to trained soldiers. Militants are merely local people, so they have no training and will do stupid things and get killed. A group of pro-russian militants attacked a march of pro-ukranian soccer hooligans in Odessa. The group of hooligans was much larger and repelled the attack. The pro-russians fled then to a trade union building, but the hooligans threw molotov cocktails and burned them to death. The police did nothing during the conflict.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Sources:<br />
* <a href="http://rt.com/news/156480-odessa-fire-protesters-dead/">http://rt.com/news/156480-odessa-fire-protesters-dead/</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Checkpoint attack - 22/may/2014</b> - Decisive Rebel victory, 11+ ukrainian army soldiers killed<br />
<br />
Rebels utilized a dirty tactic: Approached a checkpoint with an ukrainian vehicle pretending to be part of the army and then shot.<br />
<br />
Source:<br />
* http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/22/ukraine-checkpoint-attack-dead-army-rebels<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Donetsk Airport Battle - 26/may/2014 - </b>Decisive Ukrainian victory - Large numbers of separatists killed<br />
<br />
The information that 50+ (sometimes even 100+) separatists appeared in the media, but I wanted to know how the ukrainians achieved this feat, while not loosing even a single soldier in this battle. And just like the checkpoint surprise attack, this one was also very dirty, showing that really playing dirty in wars pays off. The separatists rushed during the night to the Donetsk Airport and took it over. They had a mixed force of russian-ukrainians and chechens, and then they established a defence perimeter there, in the terminal but also in the trees around it. Well, an Airport terminal with huge glass windows and many open spaces around it is a terrible building to defend against heavy weapons, and its take over was a huge error of planning by the rebels, not to mention that it is far enough (800m) from the nearest residential area so that it can be bombed from the air at will. I suppose that the rebels didn't think that the Ukrainians would actually bomb the airport. The Ukrainian forces responded very quickly, within hours. First a Sukhoi 25 fired warning shots, and the rebels started panicking. Then a Mig-29 bombed the airport terminal, leaving it ruined. At this point the rebels panicked again and many ran.<br />
<br />
So now here is how the body count got so high: Rebels wounded in the first bombing got into their trucks and tryed to flee to the city. Then an Ukrainian helicopter appeared and launched rockets against it. Well, that's a pretty low and honourless tactic, to fire are those fleeing the battle. It really shows that the Ukrainian government wants nothing less then to kill the rebels.<br />
<br />
"Many of the killed Russian-backed fighters were riding together in a truck when they were struck from above by artillery or rocket-propelled grenades fired from a Ukrainian army helicopter. The truck was destroyed and flipped on its side. The truck bed contained pools of blood and bloody bandages were strewn about the area surrounding the truck, indicating that rebel fighters aboard had been previously wounded"<br />
<br />
Best sources:<br />
* <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/26/us-ukraine-crisis-airport-idUSBREA4P03720140526">http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/26/us-ukraine-crisis-airport-idUSBREA4P03720140526</a><br />
* <a href="http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/as-many-as-45-kremlin-backed-insurgents-killed-in-heavy-fighting-on-may-26-27-349625.html">http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/as-many-as-45-kremlin-backed-insurgents-killed-in-heavy-fighting-on-may-26-27-349625.html</a><br />
<br />
<b>Helicopter with general shot down - 29/may/2014 - </b>Decisive rebel - 14 army members dead<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;">Using a Russian man-portable air defence system the rebels took down an army chopter carrying a general. At this point in time wikipedia showed the following loses for each side:</span><br />
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;">Ukrainian armed forces:</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;">Killed: 78 servicemen; 8 activists;1–2 militants</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;">Lost: 3 Mil Mi-24; 2 Mil Mi-8 helicopters; 1 An-30; 1 An-2 transport plane</span><br />
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;">Destroyed: 7 APCs (armored truck)</span><br />
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;">Captured:40-65 soldiers, over 1,000 police officers, 9 APCs; 12 ships</span><br />
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;">Rebels:</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;">Killed: 108–179 militants; 44 activists</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;">Captured: 63 militants and 25 alleged Russian spies</span><br />
<span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;">Destroyed: </span></span><span style="color: #282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20.719999313354492px;">1 captured APC (armored truck)</span><br />
<br />
Sources:<br />
* <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10862222/14-Ukrainian-troops-killed-after-rebels-shoot-down-helicopter.html">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10862222/14-Ukrainian-troops-killed-after-rebels-shoot-down-helicopter.html</a><br />
* <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_pro-Russian_conflict_in_Ukraine">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_pro-Russian_conflict_in_Ukraine</a><br />
<br />
<b>Luhansk bombing - 2/june/2014 - </b>5 dead, mostly woman<br />
<br />
Many Sukhoi-25 from Ukraine fired more then 150 rockets and bombed targets in Luhansk. The importance is that one of the buildings hit is right in the center of the city, which shows that the Ukrainian power will not stop due to the danger of air attacks hitting civilians, it will really bomb all buildings where rebels are.<br />
<br />
Sources:<br />
* <a href="http://news.antiwar.com/2014/06/03/osce-confirms-luhansk-deaths-caused-by-airstrikes/">http://news.antiwar.com/2014/06/03/osce-confirms-luhansk-deaths-caused-by-airstrikes/</a><br />
* <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AU-IceBwR80">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AU-IceBwR80</a><br />
<br /></div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-78268884096387866362014-05-06T07:12:00.002-07:002014-05-06T07:35:40.172-07:00Aventura na transferência no aeroporto de Frankfurt<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Olá,</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">O avião demorou pra decolar de São Paulo e chegou um pouco atrasado em Frankfurt, pousou ás 11:38 ao invés de 11:15. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Eu reparei nisso, mas parecia tudo ok, o vôo seguinte pra Wrocław tinha boarding </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">marcado pra 12:15 com decolagem ás 12:45. Eu já tinha reparado no pouco tempo de transferência, mas como nunca deu problema antes eu resolvi ignorar. D</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">aí depois de pousar tem que esperar encaixar a sanfona e os outros </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">sairem mas mesmo assim estava com tempo, daí eu saí e fui direto </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">rapidinho sem enrolar nada pro gate do próximo vôo e cheguei lá 12:10 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">e não tinha quase ninguém, só uma fila pra falar com as mulheres lá, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">não tinha fila pra entrar no boarding. Não estava escrito boarding, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">nem chamou o avião nem nada.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Nesse momento eu fiz um terrível erro de avaliação. O costume é que </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">com boarding escrito 12:15, daí as 12:15 eles chamam as mulheres com </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">criança, daí depois business, e daí no final o pessoal normal e atraso </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">é muito comum. Mas esse avião vai com onibus pra ele, não sanfona, então é mais apertado o tempo! Achei que iam me chamar no mega-fone em caso de problema ou chamar no boarding pelo menos. Mas não teve nada disso.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Pois eu estava com vontade de ir no banheiro cagar daí eu fui, pois assumi que o boarding não tinha começado ainda, e </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">cheguei de volta as 12:20 e entrei atrás de uma pessoa (ao que parece </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">a última?) entrando no boarding. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Daí a terrível surpresa! A mulher falou - Oh! É aquele sr. Monteiro! O vôo já está fechado, você tem que ir no gate 13 agora - Achei que ia poder embarcar lá, mas gate 13</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"> era só uma orientação que na verdade era pra eu </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">ir pro Service Center trocar de passagem!</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Daí entrei no service center, ficou marcado no papelzinho 12:30 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">entrada no service center isso depois de esperar numa fila já. Daí esperei tal e a mulher me fala que tinha 1 hora entre o </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">pouso e o outro vôo que a culpa é minha que eu cheguei atrasado! Pois o avião pousou ás 11:38 e o outro decolava só ás 12:45 então eu tinha 1 hora pra entrar. Mas </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">depois me dei conta do absurdo disso, pois eu cheguei a tempo sim de acordo com o cálculo dela! Mesmo que ás 12:20 o </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">ônibus ainda estava lá, tinha ainda uma pessoa passando o bilhete pra entrar no boarding quando cheguei, só que a mulher </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">botou outro no meu lugar e nem me chamou pelo mega-fone!!! Pois bem, daí ela falou com algum chefe lá e </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">falou que ia fazer uma exceção de me remarcar sem pagar multa, pra </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">outro vôo pra Wroclaw, mas só decolava ás 21h e não tinha lugar então </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">eu só entrava se alguém faltasse =/ e se não deses nesse, só no outro dia! Perguntei se podia mudar pra um </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">pra Katowice ou Poznan ou Krakow as 16h, ela falou que só se pagasse </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">multa de remarcação de ticket!</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Daí eu marquei o novo vôo pras 21h na lista de espera e voltei pro meu gate A52 pra ver o que </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">estava lá e tinha uma mulher chorando, daí ela gritou um pouco com as </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">mulheres da Lufthansa e <b>as mulheres da Lufthansa do Gate assumiram que estavam erradas, falaram </b></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><b>que receberam ordem de cima pra tacar o pessoal da fila de espera o </b></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><b>máximo possível e que quem chegava mesmo que 1 minuto atrasado perdia o lugar mesmo</b>! Se desculparam e falaram que só é assim quando está lotado como agora pois é perto do feriado de 1o de maio. Daí elas trocaram o vôo dela pra 21h (ao invés de </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">mandar ela pro service center), e ela ficou com lugar marcado, não na lista de espera como eu! Eu perguntei um pouco e a situação </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">dela era identica a minha! E no final ainda deram uma compensação </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">financeira pra ela comprar algo no aeroporto e almoçar! Deram um </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">voucher e a mulher saiu feliz.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Então eu falei que eu então também </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">quero o voucher. Elas me mandaram pedir o Voucher pro </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Service Center e foram embora. No Service Center as mulheres não </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">queriam me dar de jeito nenhum, que eu já devia estar feliz de ter </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">outro voô sem pagar multa, que não sabem o que aconteceu no gate e não </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">sabem quem estava lá e não tem mais ninguem lá pra perguntar e que não podem </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">ligar pra elas (oras, mas deve estar no sistema deles o nome de quem estava lá e telefone!), daí o preto que controlava a </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">fila foi super gente boa e falou que eu merecia sim, se a outra mulher recebeu eu tinha que receber, e que eu devia falar com o supervisor no Gate 22.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">. Daí fui pro Service Center no gate A22, que também não queriam me dar </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">nada, e falei que queria ver o supervisor. Ele disse que o supervisor vai dizer a mesma coisa, daí eu falei - ok, quero ouvir a mesma coisa do supervisor! - Daí me mandaram ainda </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">em outro service center dessa vez fora da área de embarque.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Nesse último Service Center eu expliquei a situação, dessa vez não falei que cheguei </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">5 minutos atrasado se não eles ficam negativos horríveis e não querem fazer nada, e só falei que </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">queria os vouchers ou então eu queria um vôo mais cedo pra outro lugar </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">e daí eu ia sozinho pra Wroclaw. Ele entao foi bem mais positivo falou </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">com um supervisor (demorou um monte pra ele achar o tal supervisor!) e conseguiu um voo pra Krakow as 16h! Pois nesse ele </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">tinha certeza que umas pessoas não iam conseguir entrar por causa de </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">um voo atrasado chegando do mexico e outro de nao sei daonde, e que só nesse era garantido o resto tava tudo lotado! Decidi esquecer os vouchers, alias nem ia dar tempo de comer, pois preferia ir com certeza do que me arriscar no vôo das 21h.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Daí eu saí correndo pra não perder esse outro vôo. Tinha que passar de novo pelo raio X e etc. O boarding era </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">12:35, então cheguei ás 12:05 e o gate estava até fechado a chave, não </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">podia entrar, esperei lá e abriu ás 12:15 e encheu de gente e fui </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">falando com a mulher e vi que o sistema dos da espera é quem chegar </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">primeiro e falar primeiro com a mulher consegue antes, então eu consegui como </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">primeiro dos esperas um bilhete real ás 12:30. Daí as 12:40 chamaram as </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">mulheres com criança, daí as 12:45 business class e só as 12:50 os </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">normais naquela fila enorme, eu já fui entrando logo pra não dar tempo de chegar algum </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">atrasado hihihihi Ás 12:50 ela também tacou toda a fila de espera que sobrou.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Eu já tinha notado antes que tinha muito pouco tempo entre os vôos, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">mas como nunca aconteceu isso não achei que agora aconteceria!</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Daí eu voei pra Krakow, lá fui de onibus pro centro da cidade, o ônibus super demorado, com umas 50 paradas, tava demorando tanto que no meio do caminho eu ví um taxi e desci e resolvi ir o resto de taxi Daí fui pra Katowice de ônibus (pois trêm já não tinha nesse horário ás 19h) e dormi lá na casa dos pais da Kasia.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Que coisa né???</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">A minha conclusão é que as mulheres lá passaram a fila do boarding bem antes do horário certo! E jogaram pra fora do vôo quem não chegou super pontualmente até 12:15! Que absurdo, 5 minutos de atraso é motivo pra jogar fora do vôo agora? Sem nem chamar no mega fone nem nada???</span></div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-49813771921049444812014-04-04T14:22:00.000-07:002014-05-13T05:17:57.301-07:00To the European Union: Please save the polish railways!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Dear Siim Kallas and other members of the European Commission,<br />
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In the media I followed the persistent requests from the polish PO-led government to transfer EU-backed railway funds to the construction of highways <a href="http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/51621/wieksze_dofinansowanie_z_ue_na_drogi_kolej_tylko_40.htm">[source]</a>, so I decided to write this open letter to defend that the European Commission should not accept this outrageous discrimination against the polish railways and should insist that EU-funded investments should be 60-40 in favor of railways. Note that outside the EU funds, Poland still invests billions and billions in roads and almost nothing in railways! So it is not 60-40 or 40-60 that we are talking about, it is more like 20-80 or 30-70 in favor of roads! And this difference can mean life or death for railways in Poland.<br />
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The long distance passenger rail in Poland has been losing passengers non-stop for the last 2 decades. It had stopped losing passengers and was showing signs of improving, but the arrival in the market of aggressive low-cost bus carriers has put it decisively in a downwards spiral again. Poland already transports less passengers in rail than Austria, which has a 4 times smaller population, and I would argue that passenger rail is only in a worse shape in Romania, considering EU countries.<br />
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The speed of passenger trains in Poland is ridiculously slow in many routes, and it cannot compete with the buses and cars going in huge and well-maintained highways. The (by far) most important long distance rail operator, PKP Intercity, has been losing passengers at an alarming rate! In the first two months of 2014 it lost 20% of it's passengers year-on-year! <a href="http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/51115/pkp_intercity_fatalny_poczatek_roku.htm">[source]</a><br />
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And what is the answer of the Polish government? Build more highways and transfer funds from rail to roads =( These extra funds could be utilized to modernize the routes between all cities with more than 200.000 inhabitants in Poland, which would then make long distance passenger rail competetive again and save it! But only if the European Commission refuses the transfer of funds this will happen!<br />
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1> The terrible state of long distance passenger rail in Poland<br />
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Here is a graphical representation of the data currently available, note that by far the most important long distance rail operator, PKP Intercity, has been losing passengers at an alarming rate! In the first two months of 2014 it lost 20% of it's passengers year-on-year, and the total amount of rail passengers remained more or less the same only because of some commuter rail and regional rail which is doing well in some regions, but for long distance the tendency is downwards:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMRgui_Yur9Qqg_Ub2JT8huwhBo0XGD6NHWWJ6A2EfM0yv0fl8uiKBWzkjjrAtB7wkbb5CXLAakCGtjnq0G9i9R_eG5Qzd0mTxCOqXVXbZSfra3OTdSMftdx0Ybw_zVvVo3KrxcayZPf2j/s1600/screen-capture.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMRgui_Yur9Qqg_Ub2JT8huwhBo0XGD6NHWWJ6A2EfM0yv0fl8uiKBWzkjjrAtB7wkbb5CXLAakCGtjnq0G9i9R_eG5Qzd0mTxCOqXVXbZSfra3OTdSMftdx0Ybw_zVvVo3KrxcayZPf2j/s1600/screen-capture.png" height="330" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzWgyRBCl8cV2etDBA7R7BiU5b8Qd6_gC4I43WPFdl9Jhk4CzNmDa1Oq845VForihQvcEWCcAVmhD-hdw1fRoH22z3lgzHVTm_8gP7dFVQJzMpvKASVc-QavyypPNlkWO8YVxyaNTcoFqL/s1600/rail_ridership_smaller_europe.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzWgyRBCl8cV2etDBA7R7BiU5b8Qd6_gC4I43WPFdl9Jhk4CzNmDa1Oq845VForihQvcEWCcAVmhD-hdw1fRoH22z3lgzHVTm_8gP7dFVQJzMpvKASVc-QavyypPNlkWO8YVxyaNTcoFqL/s1600/rail_ridership_smaller_europe.png" height="334" width="640" /></a></div>
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2> The government has a transport policy which makes a joke out of the pro-rail policy of the European Union<br />
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Over the last few years this has been a constant position of the party currently in power and they have utilized again and again false, contradictory and absurd arguments to defend their position. And the matter is most pressing because the passenger rail in Poland in a decisive moment: There is still time to save it if enough funds are invested in improving the infrastructure, which is the main obstacle to the success of passenger rail in Poland, but the Polish government insists in sabotaging this by requesting the funds to be transferred to roads. This action of the current government could lead to the total collapse of rail in Poland, and therefore I decided to write this open letter showing concrete arguments for my case.<br />
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The transportation policy of the current polish government is in total disrespect of European Union priorities. The government has absolutely no interest in the rail system, and just invests the minimum necessary to obtain the maximum possible amount of cash from the EU, and invests hugh amounts of cash in an enormous Highway system which will soon be greater then that of the United Kingdom! This is done by contracting impossible amounts of debt and the government has even stole recently the pension funds to cover for this large imbalance in it's budget! All in the name of highway building...<br />
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Outside EU funds there are hugh road projects but *zero* major railway projects. The Polish government doesn't want to invest EU funds 40-60 to roads, it says so because the EU offered 60-40. If the EU had offered 40-60 to begin with, they would now want 20-80 =( That's the reality, we are dealing with cynic people.<br />
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Yellow, Red and Blue sections will be finished by 2020 in the map bellow:<br />
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<a href="http://bi.gazeta.pl/im/4e/6f/ed/z15560526Q,Nowy-plan-budowy-drog-na-lata-2014-2020.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://bi.gazeta.pl/im/4e/6f/ed/z15560526Q,Nowy-plan-budowy-drog-na-lata-2014-2020.jpg" height="628" width="640" /></a></div>
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Railway investments in 2014-2020:<br />
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<a href="http://g8.gazetaprawna.pl/p/_wspolne/pliki/1519000/1519695-inwestycje-przewidziane-przez-pkp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://g8.gazetaprawna.pl/p/_wspolne/pliki/1519000/1519695-inwestycje-przewidziane-przez-pkp.jpg" height="486" width="640" /></a></div>
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3> The main cause for the decline in passenger rail is because the railways are so slow<br />
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The speed of passenger trains in Poland is ridiculously slow in many routes, and it cannot compete with the highways. I prepared a large comparison of rail and bus speeds in this previous post: <a href="http://felipemonteirodecarvalho.blogspot.com/2014/03/pkp-vs-polskibus-comparison.html">http://felipemonteirodecarvalho.blogspot.com/2014/03/pkp-vs-polskibus-comparison.html</a><br />
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4> Another main problem is the rail access fee<br />
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The European Union has already forced the government to revise their fees policy, but they responded by increasing rail station fees and increasing other fees to make up, as well as by cutting a program of 500 millions per year which was utilized to repay debts of the railway company =( The PO government policy is clear: Not a cent invested in rail unless the EU forces it! <a href="http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/51478/pol_miliarda_na_stawki_zamiast_na_dlugi_nowelizacja_przyjeta_przez_sejm.htm">[source1]</a> <a href="http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/51326/stawki_za_dostep_do_infrastruktury_2014_15_ma_byc_troche_taniej.htm">[source2]</a><br />
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5> How to save the polish passenger rail<br />
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But not everything is lost still! If European Commission members block this attempt and insist on 60-40 for railway investment, then the downward trend could be put at a check and rail could flourish again!<br />
<br />
The polish transport minister lies when she says that there is nothing to be done with the extra funds =(<br />
<br />
And to prove it, I prepared a list of projects which I suggest should be implemented with the new funds =)<br />
<br />
5.1> Opole-Gliwice should not have a cheap rehabilitation to 120km/h. It is a major EU corridor, which connects major polish cities such as Wrocław, Katowice and Kraków, and it should be Modernized to 160km/h<br />
5.2> Gliwice-Katowice-Sosnowiec should also be modernized to 160km/h building a 3rd and 4th rail to separate long distance trains from local trains if really necessary, as this was the reason the PO government gave to give up in the modernization of this segment<br />
5.3> Radom-Kielce-Kraków connects also very important polish cities and there are no plans to improve anything in the next 6 years in this route! By this time the buses will already have all the market. This entire route should be modernized to 160km/h still in this EU perspective<br />
5.4> The route proposed by the government for trains connecting Wrocław and Warszawa is absurd, it goes around a large circle which has 430km while the direct line between the cities is merely 300km. The route Łódź-Kalisz-Wrocław should be revitalized to 120km/h to improve the situation in this corridor. A better modernization would normally be required, but because of the high speed rail vague plans I'd go with 120km/h instead for this route. But we should definetively not wait for the HSR since it is a vague plan which might come to reality in 50 years from now in the pace that the current government has.<br />
5.5> Tarnobrzeg-Lublin should be modernized to 120km/h to improve the connection between Rzeszów and Lublin.<br />
5.6> From Wrocław going to the south there are plans to modernize only half the route, which is Wrocław-Kamien. Ząb. The entire route to Kłodzko and till the Tchech Republic should be modernized instead.<br />
5.7> The entire region of Mazuria has no real plans, and in this region the trans go as snails! A lot of work around the mazurian lakes and in all directions from Ołsztyn is required, with target speed 120km/h<br />
5.8> The entire route from Katowice to the popular mountain vacation city of Zakopana should be revitalized to 120km/h<br />
5.9> The entire route from Kraków to Zakopana should be revitalized to 120km/h<br />
5.10> Kołobrzeg-Gdansk should be revitalized to 120km/h<br />
<div>
5.11> Many other routes around Bydgoszcz should be revitalized</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-68772074892903017222014-03-21T14:05:00.001-07:002014-04-03T07:28:02.716-07:00PKP vs PolskiBus: a comparison<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Since PolskiBus is often brought up as a reason why railways are losing clients in Poland, I decided to investigate how competetive long distance trains and PolskiBus are. To do this, I used the following map to check which are the largest cities in Poland, and compared the speed and price of rail travel (TLK from PKP Intercity or InterRegio from Przewozy Regionalny) against the speed and price of PolskiBus travel.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/53/Mapa1120.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/53/Mapa1120.png" height="526" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
The bus route price was calculated in the PolskiBus website, buying to the next day around 6-10 am, a common scenario. Higher than average values were skipped, but undesirables times (such as 5 am) too, obtaining usually the value most common among desirable travel times.<br />
<br />
The rail price is just a guess from the TLK price table. In the PKP Intercity website it takes a long time to switch between routes, so I had no time to get all the real prices, but this should give an estimate. The InterRegio has smaller prices than TLK and also second, third and fourth persons in a group pay half, but on the other hand InterRegio has so many less trains than TLK that it is really a small player, and PKP Intercity is by far the largest player in Poland in long distance rail.<br />
<br />
The bus time is from PolskiBus website and the rail time is from an average of the TLKs in the route ignoring those that are slower than average (due to going via a longer route for example).<br />
<br />
The distance is not a direct line distance, but instead it is the road distance calculated in this website: <a href="http://www.dystans.org/">http://www.dystans.org/</a> I suppose that the rail distance will be similar, but of course it is not perfect.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cols="11">
<colgroup span="2" width="146"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="100"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" width="77"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="2" width="79"></colgroup>
<colgroup width="71"></colgroup>
<colgroup span="3" width="100"></colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="36"><b>Route</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>km</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Rail - Time</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Rail - Price</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Rail – Speed</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Bus - Time</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Bus - Price</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Bus – Speed</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Road Plans</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Rail Plans</b></td>
<td align="LEFT"><b>Amount</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="87">Wrocław-Katowice</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="180">180</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,118055555555556">02:50</td>
<td align="LEFT">39</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="63,5294117647059">63,53</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,0972222222222222">02:20</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">16 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="77,1428571428571">77,14</td>
<td align="LEFT" bgcolor="#99CCFF">Highway A4</td>
<td align="LEFT">Halfway via 160, rest is slow and under refit to 100/120</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 7<br />
IR: 2<br />
EIC: 2<br />
PB: 13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="121">Wrocław-Kraków</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="270">270</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,208333333333333">05:00</td>
<td align="LEFT">50</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="54">54</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,131944444444444">03:10</td>
<td align="LEFT">16 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="85,2631578947369">85,26</td>
<td align="LEFT" bgcolor="#99CCFF">Highway A4</td>
<td align="LEFT">Very slow section Katowice-Kraków, construction finished by 2017(?)</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 5<br />
IR: 1<br />
PB: 20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="70">Wrocław-Poznań</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="150">150</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,118055555555556">02:50</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="42">42</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="52,9411764705882">52,94</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,138888888888889">03:20</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">26 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="45">45</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">Modernization to 160 km/h finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 10<br />
EIC: 2<br />
PB: 3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Warszawa-Wrocław</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="360">360</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,256944444444444">06:10</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="65">65</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="58,3783783783784">58,38</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,243055555555556">05:50</td>
<td align="LEFT">36 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="61,7142857142857">61,71</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2015</td>
<td align="LEFT">Slow and no plans to improve</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 3<br />
EIC: 3<br />
PB: 15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="87">Wrocław-Szczecin</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="400">400</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,25">06:00</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="65">65</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="66,6666666666667">66,67</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="LEFT">N/A</td>
<td align="LEFT"><br /></td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">Halfway modernization to 160 km/h finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="70">Wrocław-Gdańsk</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="460">460</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,291666666666667">07:00</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="67">67</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="65,7142857142857">65,71</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,357638888888889">08:35</td>
<td align="LEFT">46 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="53,5922330097087">53,59</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2015</td>
<td align="LEFT">Modernization to 160 km/h finished by 2015</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 4<br />
PB: 3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Wrocław-Rzeszów</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="450">450</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,368055555555555">08:50</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="67">67</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="50,9433962264151">50,94</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,267361111111111">06:25</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">26 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="70,1298701298701">70,13</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2015 </td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">PB: 2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="87">Warszawa-Lublin</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="170">170</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,0972222222222222">02:20</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="44">44</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="72,8571428571429">72,86</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,166666666666667">04:00</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">24 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="42,5">42,5</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">Halfway modernization to 160 km/h finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">PB: 5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="87">Warszawa-Radom</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="100">100</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,0972222222222222">02:20</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="37">37</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="42,8571428571429">42,86</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,0729166666666667">01:45</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;#.##0,00 [$zł-415];[RED]-#.##0,00 [$zł-415]">19 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="57,1428571428571">57,14</td>
<td align="LEFT">Halfway via Highway</td>
<td align="LEFT">Halfway modernization to 160 km/h finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">PB: 6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Warszawa-Kielce</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="180">180</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,145833333333333">03:30</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="50">50</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="51,4285714285714">51,43</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,118055555555556">02:50</td>
<td align="LEFT">36 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="63,5294117647059">63,53</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 1<br />
PB: 10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="70">Warszawa-Białystok</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="200">200</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,118055555555556">02:50</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="50">50</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="70,5882352941176">70,59</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,131944444444444">03:10</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">26 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="63,1578947368421">63,16</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">Modernization to 160 km/h finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 8<br />
PB: 2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Warszawa-Olsztyn</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="215">215</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,118055555555556">02:50</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="50">50</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="75,8823529411765">75,88</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,131944444444444">03:10</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">'21 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="67,8947368421053">67,89</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 2<br />
EIC: 1<br />
PB: 4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="70">Warszawa-Gdańsk</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="340">340</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,197916666666667">04:45</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="62">62</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="71,5789473684211">71,58</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,204861111111111">04:55</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">'48 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="69,1525423728814">69,15</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">Modernization to 160 km/h finished by 2015</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 3<br />
EIC: 4<br />
PB: 15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="87">Warszawa-Katowice</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="290">290</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,149305555555556">03:35</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="60">60</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="80,9302325581395">80,93</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,197916666666667">04:45</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;#.##0,00 [$zł-415];[RED]-#.##0,00 [$zł-415]">36 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="61,0526315789474">61,05</td>
<td align="LEFT" bgcolor="#99CCFF">4-lane road <span class="s1">DK1 + S8</span></td>
<td align="LEFT" bgcolor="#99CCFF">CMK, 160km/h+</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK p/ CMK: 1<br />
TLK outros: 5 (4h50)<br />
InterRegio: 1<br />
EIC: 6<br />
PB: 4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="70">Warszawa-Kraków</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="290">290</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,145833333333333">03:30</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="60">60</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="82,8571428571429">82,86</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,204861111111111">04:55</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">'46 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="58,9830508474576">58,98</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT" bgcolor="#99CCFF">CMK, 160km/h+</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 3 (+1 slow via Radom)<br />
IR: 1<br />
EIC: 6<br />
PB: 10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="70">Warszawa-Poznań</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="300">300</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,131944444444444">03:10</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="60">60</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="94,7368421052632">94,74</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,166666666666667">04:00</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">'31 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="75">75</td>
<td align="LEFT" bgcolor="#99CCFF">Highway A2</td>
<td align="LEFT" bgcolor="#99CCFF">Modernized to 160 km/h</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 5<br />
IR: 3<br />
EIC: 6<br />
PB: 7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Warszawa-Rzeszów</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="300">300</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,236111111111111">05:40</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="60">60</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="52,9411764705882">52,94</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,21875">05:15</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">'21 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="57,1428571428571">57,14</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 1<br />
PB: 5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Warszawa-Łódź</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="130">130</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,09375">02:15</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="40">40</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="57,7777777777778">57,78</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,09375">02:15</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">'23 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="57,7777777777778">57,78</td>
<td align="LEFT" bgcolor="#99CCFF">Highway</td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 14<br />
IR: 6<br />
PB: 19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Warszawa-Bydgodzcz</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="250">250</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,145833333333333">03:30</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="54">54</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="71,4285714285714">71,43</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,180555555555556">04:20</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">'31 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="57,6923076923077">57,69</td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 8<br />
EIC: 3<br />
PB: 3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="19">Szczecin-Gdańsk</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="370">370</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,208333333333333">05:00</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="65">65</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="74">74</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="70">Katowice-Kraków</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="80">80</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,09375">02:15</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="26">26</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="35,5555555555556">35,56</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,0520833333333333">01:15</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">'16 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="64">64</td>
<td align="LEFT" bgcolor="#99CCFF">Highway</td>
<td align="LEFT">Modernization to 160 km/h finished by 2017(?)</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 7<br />
IR: 1<br />
PB: 9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="70">Katowice-Gdańsk</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="550">550</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,385416666666667">09:15</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="69">69</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="59,4594594594595">59,46</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,375">09:00</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">'51 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="61,1111111111111">61,11</td>
<td align="LEFT">Halfway via Highway</td>
<td align="LEFT">Modernization to 160 km/h finished by 2015</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 3<br />
PB: 6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="19">Katowice-Poznań</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="370">370</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,236111111111111">05:40</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="65">65</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="65,2941176470588">65,29</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="LEFT">via Wrocław</td>
<td align="LEFT">via Wrocław</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Katowice-Szczecin</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="580">580</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,375">09:00</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="69">69</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="102,352941176471">102,35</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">via Wrocław / Poznań</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Katowice-Łódź</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="200">200</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,166666666666667">04:00</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="50">50</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="50">50</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,152777777777778">03:40</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">'31 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="54,5454545454546">54,55</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction of half finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 3<br />
PB: 6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="36">Poznań-Łódź</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="200">200</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,135416666666667">03:15</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="50">50</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="61,5384615384615">61,54</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,118055555555556">02:50</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">26 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="70,5882352941176">70,59</td>
<td align="LEFT" bgcolor="#99CCFF">Highway A2</td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 2<br />
PB: 4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Poznań-Gdańsk</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="300">300</td>
<td align="RIGHT" bgcolor="#99CCFF" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,149305555555556">03:35</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="60">60</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="83,7209302325581">83,72</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,211805555555556">05:05</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;#.##0,00 [$zł-415];[RED]-#.##0,00 [$zł-415]">36 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="59,016393442623">59,02</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2020</td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 4<br />
EIC: 1<br />
PB: 3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Poznań-Szczecin</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="220">220</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,111111111111111">02:40</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="52">52</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="82,5">82,5</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="RIGHT">N/A</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2015 </td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 7<br />
IR: 2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="LEFT" height="53">Łódź-Gdańsk</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="340">340</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,21875">05:15</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="62">62</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="64,7619047619048">64,76</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;0;HH:MM" sdval="0,21875">05:15</td>
<td align="LEFT" sdnum="1046;0;@">'41 zł</td>
<td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="64,7619047619048">64,76</td>
<td align="LEFT">Construction finished by 2015 </td>
<td align="LEFT">No plans</td>
<td align="LEFT">TLK: 3<br />
PB: 6</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b>Conclusions</b><br />
<br />
First of all I was really disappointed at the PolskiBus price. Everyone keeps saying that you can travel for 1 zł (actually 2zł) everywhere with PolskiBus, as if you don't need to think, just use it to go everywhere and it will be fast and cost 2 zł. Well, even if buying months before, I couldn't find any ticket for 2zł. The tickets were priced in average 20zł cheaper than TLK, and in a group with 2 to 4 persons it would cost the same as an InterRegio ticket. The only exception is in the A4 axis: Wrocław-Katowice-Kraków-Rzeszów. In this axis PolskiBus has really cheap tickets. I suppose that the reason is that this axis has a lot of competition from other bus companies, so PolskiBus is doing dumping to try to kill them. But many routes were neither fast no cheap, for example 51zł and 9 hours for Katowice-Gdańsk!<br />
<br />
Second, we can see that PolskiBus wasn't faster, it the travel time with PolskiBus and TLK on average was the same, although some sections are very slow for rail and very fast for buses like the A4 axis in the south, in many other sections trains are faster because there are no highways yet there, and in some like Poznań-Warszawa, even if there are highways, the trains are still faster because the line is in a very good state.<br />
<br />
On the other hand the PO government plans for huge highway construction and very small railway improvements in the European Unions perspective 2014-2020 will clearly give buses an advantage in the decade to come, and shows the pro-road stance of the polish government which is against the European Union policy of modal shift towards railways. Just compare the huge highway building program, which spares no expense and will drown Poland under hundreds of billions of debt with the tiny railway program:<br />
<br />
Yellow, Red and Blue sections will be finished by 2020 in the map bellow:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://bi.gazeta.pl/im/4e/6f/ed/z15560526Q,Nowy-plan-budowy-drog-na-lata-2014-2020.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://bi.gazeta.pl/im/4e/6f/ed/z15560526Q,Nowy-plan-budowy-drog-na-lata-2014-2020.jpg" height="628" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Railway investments in 2014-2020:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://g8.gazetaprawna.pl/p/_wspolne/pliki/1519000/1519695-inwestycje-przewidziane-przez-pkp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://g8.gazetaprawna.pl/p/_wspolne/pliki/1519000/1519695-inwestycje-przewidziane-przez-pkp.jpg" height="486" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div>
<br />
One more thing which I concluded is that the bulk of the polish long distance rail is TLK trains, InterRegio and EIC trains serve only a fraction of the main destinations, and since TLK is dependent on a ever increasing governmental subsidy and an ever decreasing amount of passengers, it's pretty fair to say that the future of long distance rail in Poland is at the very least highly insecure. With the most popular political party (PO) being staunchly anti-rail, I'm pretty sure that service will greatly decrease in the next 10 years.</div>
</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-40009661142291652692014-03-08T10:39:00.003-08:002014-03-12T12:40:46.936-07:00Russian-Ukrainian conflict<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial;">I don't care much about the russian/ukranian conflict, but I'd like to challenge the anti-russian consensus in the west with some different ideas to think of:</span><br />
<br style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial;">1> An interesting read about the subject can be found here: <a href="http://lastdayswatchman.blogspot.com/2014/03/putin-doesnt-threaten-our-national.html">http://lastdayswatchman.blogspot.com/2014/03/putin-doesnt-threaten-our-national.html</a></span><br />
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<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
<span class="sewddk7fqtzo1v0"></span><span class="sewddk7fqtzo1v0"></span>2> Territorial integrity is saint? Well, it wasn't seen like that when the USA was bombing serbia to create Bosnia & Kosovo, was it? I fail to see why Serbia had no right to Bosnia where half the population is serbian. Kosovo is mostly albanian, but it has no history what-so-ever as an independent country, it is a completely new creation, a new muslim country in Europe. On whose best interest the on-going support for Bosnia and Kosovo is? Not on the best interest of europeans I'm sure.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
3> If Obama (or any other black politician, and yes, even if he lived in a palace obtained through corruption) was deposed, well, I'm pretty sure the streets would be on fire (no, I'm not exaggerating, there are plenty of historical precedents). But somehow the Russians don't have the right to be angry that the western ukrainians deposed the russian-speaking president in Ukraine?</div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
4> Crimea was indeed part of Russia until 1954 when the Soviet Union dictator, a Ukranian at the time, transferred it to the Ukrainian SSR. And the majority of the population is indeed Russian.</div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
5> Sanctions against Russia? When will the EU support the right of armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh to not be ethnically cleansed by the Azeris? When will the EU grow a spine and threaten Turkey for invading and occupying Northern Cyprus, which amounts to occupying land from a member state from the European Union??? If we are pussys enough to do nothing about that, then what is the logic for threatening Russia for invading a country which is merely a possible future member? Ok, we do know the logic behind this, and the logic is: european people that resist the gay-leftist agenda (like Putin) are evil in the liberal world view.</div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
<br />
6> The argument that next will be Poland is not a realist reading of the situation. The sphere of Russia with this conflict is decreasing, not increasing. Before Russia had influence in all of Ukraine through the pro-Russian president, now it will have dominium over Crimea, but the rest of Ukraine is now anti-Russian, so he lost territory here, he lots all of Ukraine except Crimea. That's the real reading of the situation. Russia is not expanding, it just decreased it's loss. And how can you claim that someone who is losing parts of his sphere of influence will next attack a NATO backed country for absolutely no reason at all? Poland has no russian minority, and everything that Russia could want from Poland, Stalin already took, like Lviv. Actually if poles were smart they would not be standing against Putin, but instead they would take this opportunity to retake Lviv ;) That is, if poles were interested in that in the first place. The problem of poles is wishing too much that other people have worse (like wishing Putin will get worse), instead of thinking of how themselves could improve their own power ;)<br />
<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
Anyway, now let me analyze the odds that Putin faces. I think that Putin will face an up-hill battle to annex Crimea, because:</div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
a> The crimean tatars (12% of the population in Crimea) hate russians. Update: The new signs are that they will be expelled if they complain too much.</div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
b> They haven't even taken all Ukrainian bases yet, and Ukraine is much larger and militarily powerful than Georgia. Update: From what I am reading, the full take over shouldn't take long by now, they will wait the Ukrainians to be out of food if necessary.</div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
<strike>c> Crimea hasn't even declared independence yet</strike> Update: now Crimea seams on the fast track for independence (as a russian puppet-state).</div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
d> Even if he wins, International recognition might take a century, see how other conflicts like the Armenian-Azeri one drag for ages without resolution.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
I think that the correct position for the EU on the subject should be: Let them sort it out alone. Nothing good has ever come from western interventionism and playing the world cop. At least not since western interventionism became the war machine of the liberal ideology.</div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
<br />
<b>The wrong strategy: The Georgian one</b><br />
<br /></div>
<div style="color: #222222; font-family: arial;">
Merging this topic with the Georgian-Russian conflict, I think that the war in 2008 shows what will happen to Ukraine if they attack. And that's what happens with nearly everyone which gets in a military conflict with Russia, like Napoleon, Hitler and more recently Georgia, experienced. So that's not the solution. To achieve the objective of keeping it's borders intact, a country which borders Russia needs to be clever as a fox, not pride as a lion.<br />
<br />
Going out of the original topic a but, one strange thing is that I don't even fully understand what Russia has to win in the conflict with Georgia: why it supports so badly Abkhazia and South Ossetia? The best explanation that I read is because Abkhazians lobbied themselves as pro-russians, although this is kind of silly as they obviously are interested in nothing but themselves. But in the Ukrainian case Russia has a lot more at stake, Crimea is indeed a russian-majority area, and 30% of the population in Ukraine has russian as native language.<br />
<br />
Abkhazia and South Ossetia do not pass the test of deserving their own country in my opinion. South Ossetia is not even economically viable, it has only 55.000 inhabitants compared to 700.000 in North Ossetia, and that the Ossetians are split among 2 countries, will that's the case for so many other ethnic groups that I can't even count. And Abkhazians were only 25% of the population in their region before they ethnically cleansed the place, and their country didn't exist for centuries, so just the fact that they killed and expelled so many georgians just makes them undeserving.<br />
<br />
<b>The right strategy: The Kazakh one</b><br />
<br />
While the Georgian strategy shows how not to deal with Russia, the Kazakh one shows how to correctly deal with Russia. Georgia is 100% correct to wish to have its borders restored, but in my opinion they had very bad strategies to achieving this. They did not lobby themselves as pro-russians, they lost several wars against weak enemies, tried to join NATO before securing their borders (which is something not realistic and only worked to further make Russia fell threatened, and threatened bears attack!). Now look at Kazakhstan: There is a large number of russians in north kazakhstan, enough to make it a good prize for Putin, but there both countries are like the closest friends ever! The Kazakh president even supported Putin's actions in Crimea, even if they are against the interests of tatars which are related to kazakhs! <a href="http://www.tvn24.pl/wiadomosci-ze-swiata,2/kazachstan-ze-zrozumieniem-traktuje-stanowisko-rosji,406296.html">[source]</a> So that's the correct way to be a good close neighbour of Russia: Don't threaten Russia, agree with everything Putin says, and live nicely. In the long run victory will be achieved by slowly increasing control over the border regions, like the number of russians drops each year in Kazakhstan.<br />
<br />
If Ukrainians didn't try to force their way they could have increased control over Crimea slowly over the years until such an invasion would be simply not viable in a future were most inhabitants of the peninsula would be ukrainians. On the other hand it can be claimed that this move by Russia could not have been predicted, at least I didn't think that Putin go for Crimea.</div>
</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-35291436590942908572014-02-14T13:38:00.001-08:002014-03-21T06:52:54.596-07:00The end of passenger rail in Poland<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I think we can officially announce that passenger rail in Poland lost it's position as the dominant alternative to car transportation.<br />
<br />
A few years ago passenger rail was the dominant alternative to car transportation by far. A system which I utilized nearly exclusively for traveling all around Poland, and much beyond. I traveled from Lwów to Kraków to Warsaw to Gdańsk. I really loved this rail system, and specially traveling in the night cars. And everything so cheaply. The German real system is even better, but it is so expensive, they really eat all your euros to use the wonderful railways. In Poland I had not that much less quality for so much less money.<br />
<br />
But nowadays, in 2014, I can see that this system has started a death spiral, and I don't find it probable that it will escape and remain a great system like passenger rail remains in Germany. Instead I think that the current course will lead the polish passenger rail into a tiny niche marker, with connections to most cities closed and pricy tickets, like in the United States.<br />
<br />
Here are the facts:<br />
<br />
1> The PO - Tusk - polish government is planning to cut 10% of long distance trains. <a href="http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/50868/ostateczny_rozklad_intercity_zobacz_wyciete_polaczenia.htm">[source]</a><br />
2> The PO - Tusk government has set the railway and highway usage fees in such as way as to promote bus operators and destroy passenger rail. There is no logical way that passenger trains can compete in price with bus operators such as Polski Bus, because a train going from Wrocław to Katowice has to pay around 800zł in track usage fees while PolskiBus pays 16zł for using the highways. <a href="http://www.forumkolejowe.pl/plk-sa-stawki-za-dostep-do-infrastruktury-vt2617.htm">[source]</a> The European union has already denounced this track usage fees as being unacceptable, as they are the highest in Europe, and they are destroying the polish railways and the European Union forced the polish government to reduce the track usage fees. The PO - Tusk government then complied, but they at the same time increased the rail station usage fee, so as to effectively keep almost the same price for passenger rail. Only for cargo operators the fee decreased significantly.<br />
3> Every single zł invested by the PO - Tusk government in rail is because they are forced to do so in order to receive the European Union non-refundable funds. Tusk already tried at least 5 times to convince the EU to stop giving rail investment money to Poland, he wanted to transfer the money to road projects, but the EU refused again and again and again. <a href="http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/50841/bienkowska_bedzie_walczyc_o_zabranie_pieniedzy_kolei.htm">[source 1]</a> <a href="http://www.rynek-%2Akolejowy.pl/51178/polska_zaczela_negocjowac_z_komisja_podzial_srodkow_unijnych.html">[source 2]</a><br />
4> The PKP Intercity plans for the future are absurd, focused in the extremely expensive Pendolinos, bought with debt which will make the company bleed money to pay the interest rate. The Pendolinos will travel from 120 to 240 km/h, so nothing special, and will have very expensive tickets, which means that most people will not use them, but instead will use buses. PKP Intercity has no strategy for international, long distance and night trains in general, except waiting for them to die.<br />
5> The other concurring company, Przewozy Regionalny, is in it's own death spiral. It has huge debts due to huge track usage fees and it's owners (the polish states) are constantly fighting with one another which assures that the company will never receive investment. So it has no future and is destined to die.<br />
6> Private operators will only take the most popular routes like Katowice-Warsaw and Poznan-Warsaw and never run in the rest of the country.<br />
<br />
My conclusions of this are:<br />
<br />
1> The current polish government hates passenger rail and will do everything possible to destroy the polish passenger rail.<br />
2> There is no turn back and there is no point in fighting against it (it would just be a waste of my time and my energy). It's the policy of the current government, and I don't see they going out any time soon. PiS might have good poll numbers, but I don't believe they will come to power, I bet that the liberal media will make a huge defamation campaign as always and save the liberal government. So this makes sure that there will be no policy change here, and the course will be kept steady in killing passenger rail.<br />
3> I won't migrate to buses, as I hate buses, they have no leg space, they shake a lot (which sickens me if I try to work in a bus, but in a train I can work for hours). In general buses are an uncomfortable crappy 3rd world transport system. I think that the only way to move around Poland with comfort will be in a car from now on.<br />
<br />
Now a comparison of the costs of bus and rail running:<br />
<br />
Costs of a bus operator in Poland:<br />
<br />
1> First the investment cost is 1,7 million zlotes for each new PolskiBus bus <a href="http://wgospodarce.pl/informacje/8485-z-gdanska-do-pragi-polski-bus-otwiera-nowe-trasy-i-tworzy-nowe-miejsca-pracy">[source]</a><br />
2> It burns 25L per 100 km, so 80 zl in fuel per 100 km<br />
3> They pay their drivers a minimum wage, which costs for the employer around 2.000 zl per month (1600zl per month brutto + ZUS surcharges), which means 2000/160 => something like 15 zlotes per driving hour after counting some hours more due to stay in bus station, traffic jam, etc.<br />
4> Krakow-Katowice costs 30 zl for one way<br />
5> Two kinds of bus: Altano with 70 sitting places and Astromega with 2 floors and 90 sitting places.<br />
6> Around 25zl per each parking in a bus station<br />
<br />
Comparison of Kraków-Katowice:<br />
<br />
A rail operator will have to pay around 400zl only for rail access + at least 300zl for energy + 100zl for personal + 200zl for railway station fees: Total cost of 1000zl which it needs to cover from tickets. If the tickets cost 10zl each, it will need at least 100 passengers to cover operational costs.<br />
<br />
A bus operator will pay 30zl highway+80zl fuel+15zl for driver+50zl for bus station =170zl. If he fills 50 places, he can sell at 4zl each and still make an operational profit.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Comparison of Katowice-Wroclaw:<br />
<br />
A rail operator will have to pay around 800zl only for rail access + at least 600zl for energy + 200zl for personal + 200zl for railway station fees: Total cost of 1700zl which it needs to cover from tickets. If the tickets cost 20zl each, it will need at least 85 passengers to cover operational costs.<br />
<br />
A bus operator will pay 30zl highway+160zl fuel+30zl for driver+50zl for bus station =270zl. If he fills 50 places, he can sell at 6zl each and still make an operational profit. But he also has to pay for the bus debt, for administration, for insurance, etc.<br />
<br />
Conclusion part 2> The railway access fees in Poland are ridiculously high, they are 10 times higher than in Spain, while the Highway access fees are very cheap for buses, so passenger trains cannot possibly be competitive and this is a deliberate Tusk policy to destroy the rail transport system. Even the European Union recognized that and already tried to force PLK to decrease its fees, but it responded by increasing train station fees.</div>
<div>
<br />
Dumping bus prices<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: #f5f5ff; font-family: verdana, geneva, lucida, 'lucida grande', arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Even with my calculations above, and they more like guessing as I don't know the real costs involved, I am left thinking that the scotish billionair owner of PolskiBus and other companies are doing Dumping, as his prices are way bellow anywhere else in the world. In Spain to go 150km by bus will cost you at least 10 euros, but Katowice-Kraków is 6zł o.O</span><br />
<br style="background-color: #f5f5ff; font-family: verdana, geneva, lucida, 'lucida grande', arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" />
<span style="background-color: #f5f5ff; font-family: verdana, geneva, lucida, 'lucida grande', arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">In Brazil the bus Piracicaba-Sao Paulo (165km) costs 40 reais, which is 55 zł only 1 way and there are no promotions at all.</span><br />
<br style="background-color: #f5f5ff; font-family: verdana, geneva, lucida, 'lucida grande', arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" />
<span style="background-color: #f5f5ff; font-family: verdana, geneva, lucida, 'lucida grande', arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">In England I searched for London-Liverpool (300km) and the cheapest is 15 pounds (75zł). There is no free lunch, unlike in Poland, while PolskiBus does Wrocław-Kraków (270km) for 16zł regularly, buying in the same day.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f5f5ff; font-family: verdana, geneva, lucida, 'lucida grande', arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br /></span>
Rail Usage Statistics<br />
<br /></div>
We will be able to watch if my conclusions are correct in the official European Union statistics in the next hears, here is the website: <a href="http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=rail_pa_total&lang=en">http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=rail_pa_total&lang=en</a><br />
<br />
Here is a graphical representation of the data currently available there:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMRgui_Yur9Qqg_Ub2JT8huwhBo0XGD6NHWWJ6A2EfM0yv0fl8uiKBWzkjjrAtB7wkbb5CXLAakCGtjnq0G9i9R_eG5Qzd0mTxCOqXVXbZSfra3OTdSMftdx0Ybw_zVvVo3KrxcayZPf2j/s1600/screen-capture.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMRgui_Yur9Qqg_Ub2JT8huwhBo0XGD6NHWWJ6A2EfM0yv0fl8uiKBWzkjjrAtB7wkbb5CXLAakCGtjnq0G9i9R_eG5Qzd0mTxCOqXVXbZSfra3OTdSMftdx0Ybw_zVvVo3KrxcayZPf2j/s1600/screen-capture.png" height="330" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
It is hard to see Poland when compared to Germany, UK, France and Spain, so here is another chart which zooms into the countries with less ridership:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzWgyRBCl8cV2etDBA7R7BiU5b8Qd6_gC4I43WPFdl9Jhk4CzNmDa1Oq845VForihQvcEWCcAVmhD-hdw1fRoH22z3lgzHVTm_8gP7dFVQJzMpvKASVc-QavyypPNlkWO8YVxyaNTcoFqL/s1600/rail_ridership_smaller_europe.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzWgyRBCl8cV2etDBA7R7BiU5b8Qd6_gC4I43WPFdl9Jhk4CzNmDa1Oq845VForihQvcEWCcAVmhD-hdw1fRoH22z3lgzHVTm_8gP7dFVQJzMpvKASVc-QavyypPNlkWO8YVxyaNTcoFqL/s1600/rail_ridership_smaller_europe.png" height="334" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
Well, looking at the chart I guess it could be worse (like Romania). But the fall in long distance passengers is real, PKP Intercity lost 16% of it's passengers in 2013 <a href="http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/50662/kolej_traci_pasazerow_ponad_16_mln_w_przewozach_regionalnych_ponad_4_5_mln_w_pkp_intercity.htm">[source]</a>, what kept the numbers not that bad for Poland was regional rail, which is growing specially around Warsaw.<br />
<br />
It is also interesting to keep in mind the list of 58 projects for 2014-2020 the new European Union investment perspective: <a href="http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/49166/58_projektow_na_przyszla_perspektywe.htm">http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/49166/58_projektow_na_przyszla_perspektywe.htm</a> and also here a copy of the official document which seams to have been taken offline: <a href="http://media.wix.com/ugd/0a3577_20398b09eea346b1add942b5b6e9dca7.pdf">http://media.wix.com/ugd/0a3577_20398b09eea346b1add942b5b6e9dca7.pdf</a><br />
<br />
Which is really tiny in comparison with the huge highway building program in Poland, and such politic will give road transport a key advantage in the next decade:<br />
<br />
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<a href="http://bi.gazeta.pl/im/4e/6f/ed/z15560526Q,Nowy-plan-budowy-drog-na-lata-2014-2020.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://bi.gazeta.pl/im/4e/6f/ed/z15560526Q,Nowy-plan-budowy-drog-na-lata-2014-2020.jpg" height="628" width="640" /></a></div>
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Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-33689516117702163712014-01-11T04:26:00.000-08:002014-01-11T04:28:13.905-08:00O Tesouro Direto está cada vez melhor com a subida dos juros<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<div style="text-align: left;">
E está cada vez melhor a situação no Brasil pra quem investe no tesouro direto. A única questão é quando é que vai ser o melhor momento para comprar? Difícil saber, pois quanto mais os juros sobem, melhor fica e quem comprar agora pode perder a oportunidade de comprar mais barato ainda no futuro ... mas por outro lado se a situação reverter pode perder essa oportunidade. Eu acho que vale a pena esperar o aumento dos juros em 15-16 de janeiro na reunião do Copom. Se eles aumentaram em 0,5% os juros eu acho que a NTN-B pode chegar a até 14%!</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij8cGggnS3StvOkzYADXWa-dJYy31FmKGhyf4T6yWHOUq-YPOhgssn4W3lrPscFlhNWVav7dllj57llibbXcOzO8-yFHxU-EFcwlHrEiefe9nmlh4aa7NfWQAuS10WiHDKYjB1jvIVwEe5/s1600/screen-capture-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij8cGggnS3StvOkzYADXWa-dJYy31FmKGhyf4T6yWHOUq-YPOhgssn4W3lrPscFlhNWVav7dllj57llibbXcOzO8-yFHxU-EFcwlHrEiefe9nmlh4aa7NfWQAuS10WiHDKYjB1jvIVwEe5/s1600/screen-capture-1.png" height="208" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Fonte: <a href="http://www3.tesouro.gov.br/tesouro_direto/consulta_titulos_novosite/consultatitulos.asp">http://www3.tesouro.gov.br/tesouro_direto/consulta_titulos_novosite/consultatitulos.asp</a></div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-59899010639605877592014-01-09T12:51:00.004-08:002014-01-11T04:11:12.486-08:00Jesus on Gay "Marriage"<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Related to this: <a href="http://orthosphere.org/2014/01/07/consider-the-options/#comment-31966">http://orthosphere.org/2014/01/07/consider-the-options/#comment-31966</a><br />
<br />
Jesus on Gay Marriage:<br />
<br />
Matthew 5: 17, 18 "Do not think that I have come to abolish the law or the prophets; I have come not to abolish but to fulfill. For truly, I tell you, until heaven and earth pass away, not one letter, not one stroke of a letter, will pass from the law until all is accomplished."<br />
<br />
And then when you read up the law you see:<br />
<br />
Leviticus 18:22 "You shall not lie with a male as with a woman; it is an abomination. Also you shall not have intercourse with any animal to be defiled with it, nor shall any woman stand before an animal to mate with it; it is a perversion."<br />
<br />
Leviticus 20:13 "If a man has sexual relations with a man as one does with a woman, both of them have done what is detestable. They are to be put to death; their blood will be on their own heads."<br />
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Not to mention apostolic writings:<br />
<br />
I CORINTHIANS 6:9-11 "Or do you not know that the unrighteous shall not inherit the kingdom of God? Do not be deceived; neither fornicators, nor idolaters, nor adulterers, nor effeminate, nor homosexuals, nor thieves, nor the covetous, nor drunkards, nor revilers, swindlers, shall inherit the kingdom of God. And such were some of you; but you were washed, but you were sanctified, but you were justified in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ, and in the Spirit of our God."<br />
<br />
I Timothy 1:9-10 <span class="reftext" style="background-color: #fdfeff; color: #0092f2; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; margin-left: 1px; margin-right: 2px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: text-top;"><a href="http://biblehub.com/1_timothy/1-9.htm" style="color: #0092f2; text-decoration: none;">9</a></span><span style="background-color: #fdfeff; color: #001320; font-family: Trebuchet, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; text-align: justify;">realizing the fact that law is not made for a righteous person, but for those who are lawless and rebellious, for the ungodly and sinners, for the unholy and profane, for those who kill their fathers or mothers, for murderers </span><span class="reftext" style="background-color: #fdfeff; color: #0092f2; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; margin-left: 1px; margin-right: 2px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: text-top;"><a href="http://biblehub.com/1_timothy/1-10.htm" style="color: #0092f2; text-decoration: none;">10</a></span><span class="highl" style="background-color: #fff4ec; color: #001320; font-family: Trebuchet, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; text-align: justify;">and immoral men and homosexuals and kidnappers and liars and perjurers, and whatever else is contrary to sound teaching,"<br /><br />And lets not forget the connection between gay "marriage" and pedofily:<br /></span><br />
<a href="http://www.midiasemmascara.org/arquivos/6164-pedofilia-ja-enquanto-ainda-estou-com-tudo-em-cima.html">www.midiasemmascara.org/arquivos/6164-pedofilia-ja-enquanto-ainda-estou-com-tudo-em-cima.html</a><br />
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<a href="http://rt.com/news/pedophile-syndicate-russian-boy-481/">http://rt.com/news/pedophile-syndicate-russian-boy-481/</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2393693/How-love-gay-couple-adopted-14-year-old-boy-29-foster-homes-mental-institution-helped-teenager-overcome-troubles-inspired-to-college.html">http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2393693/How-love-gay-couple-adopted-14-year-old-boy-29-foster-homes-mental-institution-helped-teenager-overcome-troubles-inspired-to-college.html</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://gothamist.com/2013/04/07/gay_couple_accused_of_raping_multip.php">http://gothamist.com/2013/04/07/gay_couple_accused_of_raping_multip.php</a><br />
<br />
<span class="highl" style="background-color: #fff4ec; color: #001320; font-family: Trebuchet, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; text-align: justify;"></span><br />
<a href="http://www.newsninja2012.com/they-took-turns-raping-me-over-and-over-conneticut-kids-tells-police-of-gay-couple-who-will-face-trial/">http://www.newsninja2012.com/they-took-turns-raping-me-over-and-over-conneticut-kids-tells-police-of-gay-couple-who-will-face-trial/</a><br />
<div>
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Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-32562407856379876222013-12-29T12:44:00.001-08:002014-01-11T04:10:12.117-08:00My opinion on Genderism<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<a href="http://www.naszdziennik.pl/mysl/63235,list-polskich-biskupow-i-nowa-teologia-wyzwolenia.html">http://www.naszdziennik.pl/mysl/63235,list-polskich-biskupow-i-nowa-teologia-wyzwolenia.html</a><br />
<br />
This sunday the polish Catholic church read a letter against the genderists, like the "gay movement".<br />
<br />
I personally think they are wasting their time. 1 single letter in 1 sunday cannot possibly compete against everyday brain washing done by the leftist/liberal/genderist media like Gazeta Wyborcza and Newsweek, which simply controls what most people believe in. The polish Catholics are simply attracting the hate attacks of the leftists to themselves. Just like Al Qaeda wouldn't tolerate any deviation from their vision, the leftists won't tolerate dissidence either, and they are well funded and control most of the media.<br />
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<irony> And we cannot forget: who is one of the greatest genderists in Poland? Tusk, read this:</irony><br />
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<a href="http://wpolityce.pl/wydarzenia/62248-jak-reaguja-dzieci-na-program-rownosciowe-przedszkole-chlopcy-gryza-i-placza-nie-chca-ubierac-sie-w-dziewczynskie-rzeczy">http://wpolityce.pl/wydarzenia/62248-jak-reaguja-dzieci-na-program-rownosciowe-przedszkole-chlopcy-gryza-i-placza-nie-chca-ubierac-sie-w-dziewczynskie-rzeczy</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://wpolityce.pl/wydarzenia/63106-ideologia-gender-po-przedszkolach-wciska-sie-do-szkol-podstawowych-my-rodzice-musimy-sie-jakos-temu-przeciwstawic">http://wpolityce.pl/wydarzenia/63106-ideologia-gender-po-przedszkolach-wciska-sie-do-szkol-podstawowych-my-rodzice-musimy-sie-jakos-temu-przeciwstawic</a><br />
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That's what he does when he is not busy increasing taxes or stealing us.<br />
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<irony> Tusk's message for a good 2014: Help us build the incredible new genderist world, keep voting PO, and while you are doing it, please empty your wallets, I'll take care of spending your stuff</irony></div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-20679425267227324312013-12-22T13:35:00.001-08:002013-12-23T03:25:57.997-08:00Caças de 4a Geração e a escolha do Gripen NG para a FAB<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="http://www.btcg.com/wp-content/uploads/gripen-ng.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="http://www.btcg.com/wp-content/uploads/gripen-ng.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Imagem: Gripen NG</div>
<br />
Recentemente saiu a notícia de que o governo brasileiro escolheu finalmente o novo caça da força aérea brasileira que irá substituir os Mirage 2000 comprados usados da França e os F-5 muito velhos que temos atualmente. Há mais de 10 anos que a escolha do novo caça brasileiro se arrasta, assim eu gostaria de discutir aqui as opções que foram levantadas e os prós e contras de cada uma e chegar a uma conclusão se a escolha foi boa ou não.<br />
<br />
Os três concorrentes principais foram o F/A-18 americano, o Rafaele francês e o Gripen NG suéco. No início do processo ainda foram considerados o Sukhoi russo e o Eurofighter inglês, mas estes foram discartados há muito tempo. O Eurofighter é muito caro, assim não seria uma boa escolha, mas não sei ao certo porque o caça russo foi descartado tão cedo.<br />
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Para a escolha é importante saber qual o objetivo de gastar dinheiro, algo que está sempre em falta, e que poderia ser gasto em tantas outras coisas mais necessárias, como hospitais e escolas, em aviões de guerra. Mesmo o Brasil estando numa região pacífica, onde há muito tempo não há guerras, ter forças armadas para garantir a paz por simplesmente possuir um poderio militar que coíba uma eventual invasão é indispensável. Oras, se até a neutra Suiça cercada de países amigaveis tem uma força armada nada desprezível, quanto mais o Brasil, que tem recursos naturais riquíssimos e tem na sua fronteira loucos como o cocaleiro Evo Morales da Bolívia e os chavistas na Venezuela, precisa ter uma defesa de respeito.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Comparação dos Aviões</b><br />
<br />
Tendo em vista que é importante ter um caça moderno, o objetivo principal mais específico desse caça seria primeiro de tudo interceptar aviões inimigos e estabelecer a superioridade aérea. Por isso ao comparar os caças eu procurei saber se eles de fato tem vitórias comprovadas no combate ar-ar, o que mostra que não são apenas brinquedos caros, mas sim ferramentas de guerra de eficácia comprovada. E secundariamente o caça deveria ser capaz de realizar todas outras tarefas de avião, como bombardear alvos no solo, lançar mísseis ar-terra e ar-mar, realizar o reconhecimento no território inimigo, etc. Em fim, procura-se um avião que faz de tudo, mas que acima de tudo deva interceptar aviões inimigos. Dos caças considerados os únicos com vitórias ar-ar contra outros caças são o F/A-18 e o Sukhoi. Não há mais guerras entre países desenvolvidos, assim os caças acabam nem tendo a chance de ser usados para se provar, pois enfrentam inimigos tão inferiores que nem oferecem muita resistência como a Líbia na recente Guerra da Líbia aonde o Rafaele abateu aviões a hélice de transporte desarmados e o Gripen participou de bombardeios. O armamento do Rafaele por outro lado é de comprovada eficácia, em 1996 um Mirage 2000 grego abateu um F-16D turco com um míssel francês R550 Magic II, assim os mísseis franceses podem abater até mesmo caças americanos! Já o Gripen NG vai usar usar armamento americano, o mesmo do F/A-18.<br />
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Além disso, também é importante pensar no preço, já que mesmo os chavistas e cocaleiros teriam que ser muito loucos de atacar o Brasil, e o orçamento federal está sempre apertado, é importante que o caça não seja caro de comprar e nem caro de manter. Nesse aspecto o Eurofighter peca, pois é o mais caro. O Rafaele em todos outros quesitos é excelente, mas no preço ... realmente eu concordo com o governo brasileiro ao dizer que o preço do Rafaele é muito salgado. O Gripen NG é de longo o mais barato, mas ele também é muito menor que os outros e carrega menos armas.<br />
<br />
Um outro aspecto ainda é a transferência de tecnologia que permitiria construir partes do caça no Brasil e se encaixar na produção do mesmo não apenas para as compras brasileiras, mas idealmente para as compras futuras do caça por outros países no mundo tudo. Isso pode parecer não ter muito a ver com defesa, mas pelo contrário, tem tudo a ver. No caso de uma guerra real, uns poucos caças não bastariam, seria necessário ter muitos mais, até centenas, e o único meio confiável de ter centenas de caças sem depender de um aliado benevolente e o país saber fabrica-los ele mesmo. Além disso é obvio que os empregos gerados no Brasil e o PIB gerado também são benefícios extras.<br />
<br />
Na tabela abaixo temos uma visão geral comparando os aviões que foram considerados no processo, mostrando os quesitos que mencionei anteriormente: preço unitário, o custo operacional, a tecnologia, a carga de mísseis e as vitórias ar-ar do caça (ou outros semelhantes).<br />
<br />
<table border="1" style="text-align: left;"><colgroup></colgroup><tbody>
<tr><td align="LEFT" height="19" width="168"><b>Avião</b></td><td align="LEFT" width="82"><b>Preço</b></td><td align="LEFT" width="55"><b>Custo operacional de 1 hora de vôo</b></td><td align="LEFT" width="100"><b>Tecnologia</b></td><td align="LEFT" width="79"><b>Carga de mísseis e bombas</b></td><td align="LEFT" width="79"><b>Vitórias ar-ar em combate</b></td></tr>
<tr><td height="18" style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">
Boing F/A-18 Super Hornet</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">
70M $US</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">
11 mil US$</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;">Comprado como produto pronto dos EUA sem possibilidade de transferir tecnologia ou construir partes<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">
7,5 tons</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;" width="79"><div style="text-align: left;">
F-18 abateram vários Migs iraquianos na Guerra do Golfo I (1991) <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_engagements_of_the_Gulf_War">[fonte]</a></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td height="19" style="text-align: left;">Dassault Rafaele</td><td sdnum="1046;" sdval="345,2" style="text-align: -webkit-left;">90M $US<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">
16 mil US$</div>
</td><td sdnum="1046;" sdval="20,1" style="text-align: right;"><div style="text-align: left;">
Motor (Snecma M88) e armamentos franceses, com possibilidade de construir partes no Brasil, assim poderia ser exportado para qualquer país</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">
10 tons</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;" width="79"><div style="text-align: left;">
Alguma experiência na Guerra da Líbia, os mísseis franceses são muito bons</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td height="19" style="text-align: left;">Saab Gripen NG<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
</td><td sdnum="1046;" sdval="467,7" style="text-align: right;"><div style="text-align: left;">
55M $US</div>
</td><td sdnum="1046;" sdval="25" style="text-align: right;"><div style="text-align: left;">
5 mil US$</div>
</td><td sdnum="1046;" sdval="121,8" style="text-align: right;"><div style="text-align: left;">
O Brasil construiria 40% do avião com transferência da tecnologia sueca e projeto de partes aqui, mas o motor e os armamentos são americanos</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">
3 tons</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;" width="79"><div style="text-align: left;">
Nenhuma, experiência na Guerra da Líbia</div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td height="18" style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">
Sukhoi Su-35</div>
</td><td sdnum="1046;" sdval="518,6" style="text-align: right;"><div style="text-align: left;">
65 $US</div>
</td><td sdnum="1046;" sdval="26" style="text-align: right;"><div style="text-align: left;">
?</div>
</td><td sdnum="1046;" sdval="17,9" style="text-align: right;"><div style="text-align: left;">
Tecnologia russa</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">
6.5 tons</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;" width="79"><div style="text-align: left;">
Su-27 da Etiópia abateram 3 Migs da Eritréia </div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td height="18" style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">
Eurofighter Typhoon</div>
</td><td sdnum="1046;" sdval="750" style="text-align: right;"><div style="text-align: left;">
115M $US</div>
</td><td sdnum="1046;" sdval="10" style="text-align: right;"><div style="text-align: left;">
18 mil US$</div>
</td><td sdnum="1046;" sdval="24,4" style="text-align: right;"><div style="text-align: left;">
Tecnologia principalmente inglesa, mas também alemã, italiana e espanhola</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">
5 tons</div>
</td><td style="text-align: left;" width="79"><div style="text-align: left;">
Nenhuma?</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Fonte: <a href="http://www.aereo.jor.br/wp-content/uploads//2012/07/Comparativo-custos-de-opera%C3%A7%C3%A3o-ca%C3%A7as-Janes-via-Saab.jpg">[1]</a> <a href="http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/4332/mmrca.png">[2]</a></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<b>Conclusão</b><br />
<br />
Acredito que a melhor escolha para a defesa nacional seria mesmo o Rafaele, mas ele é realmente caro e não sei se o Brasil realmente poderia entrar na cadeia de construção dele para exportação, já que ele é um projeto pronto já em construção. Já no Gripen NG o Brasil vai entrar quase que de igual para igual como um parceiro para desenvolver o avião. Nesse mundo pós-crise mundial o Gripen é muito competitivo e pode se tornar bastante popular entre países sem perspectiva de guerra. O Gripen NG foi escolhido recentemente pela Suiça, que não tem nenhuma ameaça militar em vista e pode ainda ser exportado para outros países em situação similar como a Nova Zelandia. Esses países devem preferir o barato Gripen ao caro Rafaele. Em países que tem perigo mais real de guerra acredito que o Rafaele deva ser preferido. Por outro lado a desvantagem do Gripen é que ele é baseado num motor e em mísseis americanos, assim ele não pode ser exportado para países inimigos dos EUA como a Venezuela que são grandes compradores de armas.<br /><br />O Gripen foi muito criticado devido ao seu baixo alcance, de cerca de apenas 800km na versão anterior. Isso se deve ao fato de que ele foi desenvolvido para as necessidades de um país pequeno, a Suécia, e o tornaria quase inútil num país continental como o Brasil. Mas pelo que entendi essa crítica já foi rebatida e o Gripen NG é um projeto em desenvolvimento que foi revisado para ter um alcance de 1300km sem tanques externos ou 4000km com tanques externos para se adequar as necessidades brasileiras. <a href="http://www.saabgroup.com/pt/Air/Gripen-Fighter-System/Gripen-Para-o-Brasil/O-Caca-Gripen-NG/">[fonte]</a> Veja ainda a imagem do raio de alcance do Gripen NG a partir das bases brasileiras. Bom, é um pouquinho curto, mas acredito que isso poderia ser corrigido com uma base no Acre e outra em Natal no nordeste. O alcance do Rafaele de fato é maior, mas creio que tais bases seriam necessárias de qualquer modo, para os aviões não terem de voar no máximo de seu alcance.<br /><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.aereo.jor.br/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/alcance-gripenNG-580x518.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://www.aereo.jor.br/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/alcance-gripenNG-580x518.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />Bom, concluo que a escolha realmente estava difícil e que não há uma opção única que é melhor em todos quesitos, mas acho que a escolha será boa para a Embraer e a indústria brasileira, assim acho que de modo geral a escolha foi boa. Tanto o Gripen quanto o Rafaele seriam escolhas boas.</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-10055293768664890082013-11-25T12:53:00.002-08:002013-12-01T00:18:06.595-08:00Análise da LLX - Versão 3<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Já analisei duas vezes antes a LLX (LLXL3), mas com as enormes mudanças recentemente na empresa, que foi comprada pela EIG americana, é preciso atualizar a análise. A LLX é uma empresa que é dona de um porto no estado do Rio de Janeiro, próximo as cidades de Campos dos Goytacazes (RJ) e São João da Barra (RJ). A empresa é uma das famosas X, empresas que tem o Eike como fundador e que caíram horrores na bolsa nos últimos 2 anos. O porto em si tem tudo pra dar certo, pois o Brasil é carente em infra-estrutura e por ser algo completamente privado, ao contrário de uma concessão, o governo não tem muito poder de intervenção para estragar o empreendimento. Então de certo modo temos receita garantida, mas o problema da LLX é saber se isso vai virar lucro, e os dois fatores que podem impedir que a empresa converta suas receitas em lucros são a alta dívida e o risco da EIG decidir não compartilhar o lucro com os minoritários.<br />
<br />
<b>Dívidas</b><br />
<br />
Muito se falou nos tempos bons de LLX a 2 ou a 3 reais das receitas garantidas. Então pra quebrar a rotina eu vou iniciar com uma tabela das dívidas da empresa. As informações são retiradas do último relatório trimestral, são todas abertas para qualquer um verificar.<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cols="5" rules="NONE"><colgroup></colgroup><tbody>
<tr><td align="LEFT" height="19" width="168"><b>Dívida</b></td><td align="LEFT" width="82">Principal</td><td align="LEFT" width="55">Custo de transação</td><td align="LEFT" width="100">Juros 2013T1</td><td align="LEFT" width="79">Juros total (inclui custo de transação)</td></tr>
<tr><td align="LEFT" height="18"><br /></td><td align="LEFT">M R$</td><td align="LEFT">M R$</td><td align="LEFT">M R$</td><td align="LEFT"><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td align="LEFT" height="19">Bradesco i</td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="345,2">345,2</td><td align="LEFT"><br /></td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="20,1">20,1</td><td align="LEFT">CDI+7,14%</td></tr>
<tr><td align="LEFT" height="19">Bradesco ii</td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="467,7">467,7</td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="25">25</td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="121,8">121,8</td><td align="LEFT">CDI+6,51%</td></tr>
<tr><td align="LEFT" height="18">BNDES</td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="518,6">518,6</td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="26">26</td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="17,9">17,9</td><td align="LEFT">TJLP+6,49%</td></tr>
<tr><td align="LEFT" height="18">Debêntures</td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="750">750</td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="10">10</td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="24,4">24,4</td><td align="LEFT">IPCA+6,59%</td></tr>
<tr><td align="LEFT" height="18"><br /></td><td align="LEFT"><br /></td><td align="LEFT"><br /></td><td align="LEFT"><br /></td><td align="LEFT"><br /></td></tr>
<tr><td align="LEFT" height="18">Total</td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="2081,5">2081,5</td><td align="LEFT"><br /></td><td align="RIGHT" sdnum="1046;" sdval="184,2">184,2</td><td align="LEFT"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Fonte: Página 74 do relatório 1T13<br />
<br />
O fato é que é assustador ver dívidas de CDI+7% ... debentures de empresas como a Vivo pagam CDI+1%! Assim a dívida da LLX é caríssima, como seria de se esperar de uma empresa com prejuízos seguidos...<br />
<br />
Bom, vou considerar que a LLX vai ter que pagar 14% de juros ao ano e que com o aumento de capital de 1,3 bilhões, a dívida poderá ser diminuída de 2,2 bilhões para 1,5 bilhão (considerei que a LLX terá que pagar R$600 milhões ou no mínimo aumentar seu CAPEX nesse número devido a compra dos 30% da LLX Açu) de reais em dívidas. Atualmente a empresa paga muito menos que isso pois ela ainda não usou todo o crédito aprovado, mas com cerca de 1 bilhão de investimentos previstos para os três últimos trimestres do ano, a LLX em 2014/15 deve já estar com toda dívida pagando juros. E 14% de 1,5 bilhão dá 210 milhões de reais por ano. Se só em juros a LLX tem que pagar no mínimo R$210 milhões por ano, é bom ela ter fluxo de caixa operacional positivo para cobrir tudo isso. A empresa tem 2 fontes de receitas: LLX Minas Rio e várias operações no porto do Açu.<br />
<br />
Obs: Pra quem acha que estou sendo pessimista quanto aos juros, por favor leia a página 74 do relatório 1T13. Além disso, CDI+6,5% = 16%. Ok, ela paga menos do que isso pro BNDES, mas também não paga pouco. Além disso, há nesse exato momento títulos LTN e NTN-F sendo vendidos pelo governo federal a aprox. 10,5% de juros ao ano! O pessoal acha que o Bradesco é tonto de emprestar por menos do que o governo federal paga a uma empresa pré-operacional? Quem já estudou ou já tomou dinheiro emprestado sabe muito bem que o custo do crédito não é só o juro base, tem que considerar as taxas pesadas para abrir a linha de crédito, seguros, clausulas de garantia, etc, etc.<br />
<br />
<b>LLX Minas Rio (51% da LLX)</b><br />
<br />
<a href="http://meioambiente.culturamix.com/blog/wp-content/gallery/1_50/porto-do-eike-batista-salinizacao-em-agua-doce-6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="300" src="http://meioambiente.culturamix.com/blog/wp-content/gallery/1_50/porto-do-eike-batista-salinizacao-em-agua-doce-6.jpg" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />
A LLX Minas Rio engloba o embarque de minério produzido pela Angle American em Minas e transportado via minerioduto até o porto. O melhor de tudo é que o contrato é do tipo take-or-pay para 26,5 milhões de toneladas ao preço de US$5,15 por tonelada líquidos para a LLX, somando 136.5 milhões de dólares por ano. O Take-or-pay passa a valer a partir de 1o de julho de 2014, sendo que se não houverem embarques após 1o de julho de 2013 a Anglo-American é responsável pelos juros da dívida da LLX Minas Rio (<a href="http://www.limascontabilidade.com/site/NoticiasDetalhes.php?Titulo=LLX%20e%20Anglo%20revisam%20contrato%20de%20movimenta%E7%E3o%20de%20min%E9rio%20no%20A%E7u&Codigo=853)">fonte</a>) Essa tarifa é o total depois de considerar a participação da Anglo American na LLX Minas-Rio (US$ 7,10 por tonelada bruta). A tarifa bruta cairá de US$ 7,10 por tonelada para US$ 4,25 por tonelada para volumes acima de 26,5 mtpa, desde que não haja necessidade de expansão do porto para acomodar esse volume adicional. Claro que é um cenário extremamente otimista, pois a Anglo American tem tido muitos problemas com o projeto. Bom, vou considerar o take-or-pay para esta análise, sem contar com rendas extras.<br />
<br />
Assim o fluxo de caixa operacional da LLX com a operação seria: 136,5 M US$ por ano<br />
<br />
Considerando um câmbio de longo prazo otimista de 2,2 BRL por USD, temos 300 M R$ por ano para a LLX<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b>LLX - Alugueis</b><br />
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://behance.vo.llnwd.net/profiles21/256708/projects/5373443/fe3d6735642f5e2cd026c56efb3a3e56.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="http://behance.vo.llnwd.net/profiles21/256708/projects/5373443/fe3d6735642f5e2cd026c56efb3a3e56.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
A LLX tem os seguintes aluguéis que já entram como receita:<br />
<br />
MPX: R$9,2M por ano<br />
OSX: R$14 M por ano (reduzido pela metade recentemente)<br />
National Oilwell Varco: R$8 M por ano<br />
Technip: R$22 M por ano<br />
InterMoor: R$3,6 M por ano<br />
General Electric: R$6,75 M por ano<br />
V&M: R$6,75 M por ano<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Soma total: R$ 60 M por ano<br />
<br />
Aqui surge uma questão interessante: Os alugueis são pagos para a LLX ou para a LLX Açu? Se forem pagos para a LLX Açu eles podem ser divididos com o outro acionista da LLX Açu. Na página 47 do relatório 1T13 está claramente escrito que a LLX (que é o que quem compra LLXL3 está comprando) é dona de apenas 70,9% da LLX Açu, que é a empresa que opera o porto. A EBX é dona do resto, mas ficou combinado que a LLX ira comprar esses 29,1% (<a href="http://llx.riweb.com.br/Show.aspx?IdMateria=nqTBMvGdXJ8Gv6Yd/Kg/8w==&IdCanal=cuf7mlR+GnI4k3lo9t20dA==">fonte</a>)... assim vou assumir que os alugueis vão para a LLX. A LLX Açu é dona da Unidade de Tratamento de Petróleo e da infra-estrutura portuária, mas talvez não seja dona dos terrenos sendo alugados.</div>
<br />
Continuando sobre a receita dos alugueis: Lógico que assim que o porto estiver funcionando devem aparecer novos empreendimentos pagando aluguel. Vou considerar o triplo do valor atual para o cenário de 2014/2015, ou seja: R$180 M por ano para a LLX, o que é otimista.<br />
<br />
<b>LLX Açu - Carga do Porto</b><br />
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
A receita com o transporte de cargas em 2014 e 2015 deve ser bem baixa, é um bônus grande para o longo prazo. Vou considerar os dados do relatório do Bank of America (<a href="https://www.google.pl/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCwQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fllx.riweb.com.br%2FMobile%2FDownload.aspx%3FArquivo%3DMTkpgDKeFMvcpMct1H4C%2Bg%3D%3D&ei=S92UUqb9B8vYygPRzoCICQ&usg=AFQjCNFBJX0aGAqzLqbLu6fz5C6VS_2TyA&sig2=ofUHsFB2zD3Rqi2wJRMgsw&bvm=bv.57155469,d.bGQ">fonte</a>) e também a média de carga transportada dos portos brasileiros. O maior porto do Brasil é o porto de Santos, e outros portos menores transportam bem menos que ele. Considero como realista algo em torno de 10% da carga transportada pelo Porto de Santos para o Açu, que é similar ao transportado pelos portos do Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Vitória (ES) e Suapé (PE) (<a href="http://abrangelog.blogspot.com/2011/07/gargalos-logisticos-no-uso-de.html">fonte</a>). Quanto as tarifas, vou me basear nas tarifas do Porto do Rio de Janeiro (<a href="http://www.antaq.gov.br/portal/tarifas/Documentacao/Pdf/TarifasPortuariasRioJaneiroNiteroi.pdf">fonte</a>). Vou considerar 3 anos básicos: 2016, 2018 e 2020:<br />
<br />
<div class="p1">
<b>Contêineres</b> - tarifa de R$50 por contêiner cheio e zero por vazio:<br />
<br />
2016: zero<br />
2018: 400 mil / 600 mil TEUs -> receita de R$3 milhões<br />
2020: 700 mil / 1M TEUs -> receita de R$5 milhões</div>
<br />Note que o porto de santos transporta aproximadamente 2 milhões de contêiners por ano (3 milhões de teus) (<a href="http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/noticia/2012-03-26/porto-de-santos-deve-dobrar-capacidade-de-operacao-ate-2014-diz-diretor">fonte</a>), então é fora da realidade argumentar que os números do BofA quanto a contêiners são muito pequenos.<br /><br />
<b>Outras cargas (graneis sólidos e líquidos)</b> - tarifa de R$4 por tonelada, bem otimista, abaixo dos R$4,5 do porto do Rio de Janeiro, mas acima dos R$2,5 do porto de Ilhéus<br />
<br />
2016: 1,1 M de toneladas -> receita de R$4,4 M<br />
2018: 4,3 M de toneladas -> receita de R$17 M<br />
2020: 5,9 M de toneladas -> receita de R$24 M<br />
<br />Note que o porto de santos transportou 51 M de toneladas de graneis sólidos e 16 M toneladas de graneis líquidos em 2012. (<a href="http://www.portodesantos.com.br/imprensa.php?pagina=art1">fonte</a>)<br /><br />
<b>Aço</b> -> Como os projetos de produção de aço no Açu foram todos cancelados, creio que a previsão de transporte do BofA não deva ser considerada<br />
<br />
<b>Carvão</b> -> dependia do projeto de geração de energia a carvão que não acredito que será implantado<br />
<br />
<b>Petróleo</b> -> Tarifa de R$2 por barril, que está muito acima do que encontrei de R$1,3 a R$1,5 por tonelada de petroleo em outros portos<br />
<br />
2016: 0,8 M de barris -> receita de R$1,6 M<br />
2018: 1,2 M de barris -> receita de R$2,4 M<br />
2020: 1,6 M de barris -> receita de R$3,2 M<br />
<div>
</div>
<br />
<b>Minério de Ferro e Pelotas</b> -> Serão transportados pela LLX Minas-Rio, sem ferrovia no porto não acredito que outras empresas transportem minério de ferro no Açu.<br />
<br />
Além das tarifas suponho que o porto também tenha outras receitas envolvendo os terminais e logística, então vou considerar como razoável uma receita líquida equivalente a 5% da receita bruta do porto de Santos, ou seja: R$50 M<br />
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div>
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<b>LLX Açu - Unidade de Tratamento de Petróleo</b></div>
<div>
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<b><br /></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="margin: 0px;">
Não faço idéia de quanto seria o fluxo de caixa operacional desta unidade ... vou ignorar por enquanto.</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Custo Gerais e Administrativos (excluí juros!)</b><br />
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
As empresas do Eike são bem gastonas e a LLX não é exceção. Tem uma abundância de executivos com salário milionários e outros gastos desnecessários que queimam dinheiro. Bom, de todo modo a LLX tem no mínimo 100 M R$ por ano de gastos gerais e administrativos.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Soma final</b><br />
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
Um cenário para 2014/2015:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Fluxo de caixa operacional da LLX Minas Rio p/ a LLX: R$300 M</div>
<div>
Receitas do LLX Açu: R$180 M por ano</div>
<div>
Custos Gerais de Administrativos: R$100 M por ano</div>
<div>
Juros da dívida da LLX: R$210 M por ano<br />
Movimento de carga no porto: R$ 50M por ano</div>
<div>
Fluxo de caixa recorrente total: positivo em aprox. R$220 M por ano<br />
Total de ações após o aumento de capital: 1777 M</div>
</div>
<div>
Lucro por ação antes do aumento de capital (calculado no meu artigo anterior): 0,144 R$<br />
Lucro por ação após o aumento de capital: 0,124 R$<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
Resumindo: Com o preço atual de R$1 acho que a ação está no máximo que eu pagaria.</div>
</div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-83083283345271054122013-10-29T23:25:00.000-07:002013-10-30T14:34:55.269-07:00Filmes<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
É difícil pescar filmes excelentes, então vou tentar manter aqui uma lista do que achei de vários filmes:<br />
<br />
É uma lista em construção ......<br />
<br />
Filmes excelentes:<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Jodaie Nader Az Simin (A Separação) - Drama - Irã - Sobre um casal que está se separando no Iran</li>
<li>About Elly - Drama - Irã - Sobre amigos de classe média que vão pra praia e a filha de um deles desaparece nas ondas</li>
<li>Tropa de Elite - Ação - Brasil - Dispensa explicações, um raro filme de direita brasileiro, mesmo que tenha sido por acidente já que o diretor não é de direita, apenas tentou ser imparcial.</li>
<li>Pacific Rim - Ação/Sci Fi - USA - Sobre robos gigantes lutando contra monstros na terra</li>
<li><br /></li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Filmes bons:<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li>Dark Prince - The True Story of Dracula - Ação/Histórico - USA - Muito bom, trás muitas coisas do Dracula histórico, um herói da Romênia que lutou contra os turcos. Mas algo falta no filme, aquele algo mais que gera um filme excelente como Coração Valente. É difícil precisar o que é, mas o filme é apenas bom, não consegue causar aquela conexão emocional ou deixar o telespectador boquiaberto como um filme excelente. Mas em sí a história é bom e bem contada, os erros históricos são relativamente menores. Não gostei de fazer a mulher dele ter tanto medo dele, não tenho certeza, mas me parece falso.</li>
<li>Paan Singh Tomar - Ação - India 2013 - Sobre um corredor do exéricito que acaba virando bandido após a polícia ficar injustamente contra ele numa disputa familiar.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
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Filmes médios:<br />
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<li>Man of Steel (2013) - Ação - USA - As lutas e os efeitos especiais são muito bons, assim como os primeiros 30 minutos especialmente em Kripton, mas depois o filme fica uma porcaria, sem sentido. Além do que eu empatizei mais com o vilão do que com o superman, o Zod é um fascista. O superman do filme é um babaca.</li>
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Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8833251392487234904.post-23355333195812393752013-07-30T00:37:00.000-07:002013-07-30T03:10:24.385-07:00As acusações paranóicas que os liberais fazem sobre o conservadorismo<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">O passatempo favorito dos liberais é inventar teorias conspiratórias e acusações paranóicas e hipócritas sobre os conservadores. Algumas vezes são mentiras claras, mas na maior parte das vezes eles pegam uma idéia da direita e a distorcem grotescamente. Outra tática é apresentar corretamente a proposta da direita e dizer que se ela for implementada, haverão consequências terríveis, mesmo que essa idéia tenha sido o status quo durante séculos sem nenhuma consequência má, pelo contrário, a sociedade era muito melhor quando era governada pela direita. Eu escolheria 1000 vezes viver no Brasil até 1985 do que no Brasil racista anti-brancos (vide as cotas raciais) e marxista de hoje.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mas vamos lá, vou tentar resumir aqui os principais pontos:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1> O alvo dos ataques dos liberais são os conservadores</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Eu evito a palavra direita, pois há 2 grupos que são identificados como direita: conservadorismo e neoliberalismo. O alvo das acusações dos liberias é claramente o conservadorismo, que é a minha ideologia, é o que acredito e o que defendo. Não concordamos com o neoliberalismo, assim por favor não nos confunda com eles.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">O liberalismo fede e o neoliberalismo também. Assim não me venha com revista Veja (revista esta que é ideologicamente neoliberal, não conservadora) e outros fedores liberais. Se quer ler o que a direita de verdade pensa leia:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Brasil: http://www.ipco.org.br/</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">EUA: http://orthosphere.org/</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Polônia (yes! Na Polônia temos canais de radio, TV e multiplos jornais e revistas. chupa esquerda!):</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://www.rp.pl/</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://www.gazetapolska.pl/</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://www.youtube.com/user/TelewizjaTrwamPL</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2> Não são os evangélicos, nem os católicos, é a civilização cristã ocidental</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Já que no Brasil quase nada se sabe sobre o que o conservadorismo é e o que o conservadorismo deseja, já que não há nenhuma mídia relevante no Brasil que seja conservadora, então é sempre importante começar definindo o que a direita deseja. Vamos lá, em alguns pontos:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">a> O conservadorismo representa o povo e os valores tradicionais de um determinado país. Assim a direita na Polônia por exemplo representa o povo étnico polonês (incluindo seus aliados europeis e excluindo seus inimigos) e os valores tradicionais do povo polonês que são os valores do cristianismo solidário. O conservadorismo no Brasil por outro lado foi bem expresso pelo Dr. Enéas enquanto este esteve entre nós.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">b> Não é apenas uma questão de religião, é uma questão dos valores tradicionais do nosso povo que estão sendo suplantados pela agenda de poder do liberalismo internacional e do marxismo. Os pilares do conservadorismo são:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">b1> Tradição</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">b2> Religião</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Assim uma determinada política pública pode ser baseada em preceitos religiosos, mas pode também ser baseada em preceitos da tradição do nosso povo.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">c> Conservadorismo não é uma volta a inquisição, mas também somos contra o estado laico no estilo francês</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Quem acha que o conservadorismo é um movimento para colocar uma igreja particular no poder está muito enganado. Isso não é uma tradição ocidental e só ocorreu nos estados papais. O convívio entre católicos e protestantes já foi resolvido a séculos na paz no fim da guerra dos 30 anos no século 16. É por isso que sou contra um movimento "evangélico" ou "católico" político. Um movimento conservador ideologicamente consistente tem que estar além disso, apoiar a religião tradicional ocidental que é o cristianismo, mas não estar atado a nenhuma igreja em particular, mas conversar com várias dando um peso a opinião de cada uma de acordo com a relevância delas. Mas isso não quer dizer que queremos o estado laico francês, que deseja banir cruzes de escolas e banir idéias religiosas do discurso político. Nada disso, dizer que idéias baseadas na religião não podem fazer parte do discurso político é perseguição política contra o conservadorismo e não vamos aceitar isso.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3> Acusação: A direita tem uma agenda de poder</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Resposta: Temos sim, e daí? Todos outros grupos políticos tem uma agenda de poder. Pode perguntar aos comunistas o que querem. Vão te responder: queremos tomar o poder. Engraçado que os hipócritas que criticam os conservadores por terem uma agenda de poder mas nunca falam isso de outros grupos como os liberais e os comunistas. É um ataque gratuíto, já que absurdo, quem não tem uma agenda de poder não está na política. Todo mundo que está na política tem uma agenda de poder. E não vamos nos desculpar por ter uma.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">4> Acusação: Os conservadores são intolerantes</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hahahahaha!!! O cúmulo do absurdo da hipocrisia. A esquerda está aprovando uma lei que torna crime criticar o homossexualismo PLC 122. Cade a tolerância para quem pensa que o homossexualismo é errado e nocívo? Não há tolerância para conosco. Assim um grande fuck you para que não acusa de ser intolerantes. Bando de hipócritas nojentos. Vocês são os maiores intolerantes do universo e ainda vem nos acusar.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">5> Lema liberal: A religião deve ser algo privado sem nunca participar no discurso político ou de modo geral na sociedade.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Isso é perseguição religiosa e política e nunca vamos aceitar isso. É uma tentativa de nos excluir da sociedade e da política.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">6> Idéias cristãs na política não são algo cristão</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Isso é uma grande mentira, que pode ser derrubada facilmente:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">a> Com 2000 anos de história de cristianismo, durante pelo menos 1500 anos o cristianismo esteve próximo ao poder e durante 15 séculos então esses cristãos que conseguiram evangelizar as américas, reconquistas territórios invadidos pelos muçulmanos e de modo geral construiram toda nossa civilização, eles estavam todos errados? E o cristianismo liberal de hoje que não consegue nem sobreviver, já as pessoas deixam em massa essas pseudo-igrejas liberais, mas as mais conservadoras tem um sucesso muito maior em se manter, esse cristianismo liberal de hoje é o que está certo???</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">b> 1 Pedro 2:14 <span style="background-color: white; color: #111617; line-height: 20px;">seja aos governantes, como por ele enviados para punir os que praticam o mal e honrar os que praticam o bem.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #111617; line-height: 20px;">Assim claramente de acordo com 1 Pedro 2:14 o objetivo dos governantes é punir os que pratical o mal e honrar os que praticam o bem. E não há outra maneira de definir bem e mau correta do que através da religião.</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #111617; line-height: 20px;">7> Os conservadores deveriam desistir e fazer compromisso no assunto X</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #111617; line-height: 20px;">X pode ser qualquer idéia em moda nos circulos liberais, como aborto ou homossexualismo. O fato é que um conservador com um mínimo de estudo dos fatos que ocorreram nos últimos 100 anos na nossa civilização chegará a conclusão de que não há nenhum benefício em fazer qualquer compromisso. A esquerda e os liberais *nunca* fazem compromisso e tem a estratégia "progressista" de ir aos poucos exigindo pequenas mudanças que acumuladas transformaram nossa civilização numa versão perversa, grotesca e satânica do que foi um dia. Um ótimo exemplo é a história do fracasso da direita nos EUA, que foi lentamente fazendo compromissos. Assim eu concluo que: Não. Não vou fazer qualquer compromisso com o exército das forças das trevas. Não dou a mínima para o que eles pensam e não vou mudar nada do que penso em favor de quem luta para o mau vencer.</span></span></div>
Felipe Monteiro de Carvalhohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02603979169608559234noreply@blogger.com0