Click on the image to see it entirely
Source: http://dailyhealthpost.com/are-bananas-as-bad-for-you-as-cookies/?utm_source=taboola#axzz2OHJaxowK
An Old Apology
Há um dia
sexta-feira, 22 de março de 2013
Mapping the satiety of food
Source: http://dailyhealthpost.com/are-bananas-as-bad-for-you-as-cookies/?utm_source=taboola#axzz2OHJaxowK
quinta-feira, 14 de março de 2013
First impressions in São Paulo
Going back home after more than 1 year I re-experienced a lot of things that had become far away memories and sometimes even things I had completely forgotten about. I'd like to sum up those things here.
Melting chocolate
The chocolate I brought from Poland became a mess, completely melted, even while I simply kept it over my desk! It surely isn't made to stand +35 degrees =) I tried to fix the situation by putting it on the fridge but this wasn't such a great idea. The chocolate and the paper got glued together and couldnt be easily separated.
Delicious food
There are some particular food products which cannot be found in Poland no matter how hard you search:
*Flan Paulista sabor caramelo
*Requeijão (marcas Poços de Caldas ou Catupiry)
*Pão de Queijo
*Goiaba e goiabada (sweet from goiaba)
*Queijo minas frescal
*Pão de Milho (can be found in Poland but is very, very rare)
*Patê de atum coqueiro
Good weather, hot sea water and strong waves
The weather is all year long between 15 and 35 degrees, so no mróz (deep polish cold in winter from -10 to -20 degrees). Having been for more than 1 year at the beach only in the baltic, with it's weak waves and freezing temperature, and in Portugal, which has a slightly less freezing atlantic, I couldn't remember how warm is the water temperature in São Paulo state. It is excelent, cold enough to refresh from the sun, but hot enough so that you don't feel any cold by staying there. A downside is that many beaches (such as Camburiu, Pauba, Maresias) has very strong waves, so you are constantly fighting to stay in the same place and you quickly get tired of dodging the waves. There do are beaches with calm waves, such as Riviera de São Lourenço, however.
Keeping the shape with São Paulo's public transport
People that use public transport in São Paulo are guaranteed to be in good shape. You have to exercise your arm muscles to avoid falling in the bus as it accelerates and turns quickly in the streets (you will almost surely be standing as it is so full). Your legs too will get some work as you go up and down the streets of the city and up and down metro stairs (thought most places have rolling stairs).
Threatening beggers
In a quick trip to the city center (Sé) to register a document I got threatened by 2 different people. First while walking from Metro Sé to my destination, a cartório (civil registration office), a young dark skinned beggar asked me for money. I solidly ignored him. So he started calling me names, insulting me and in the end even said that I'm surely not brazilian, I'm argentinean and should go back there. WTF?
In the way back I had to wait in a line to recharge my bus ticket and so came a middle aged black man with his face filled with scars. He stood ridiculously close to me, and I could smell his sweat.
-beggar-Can I ask you for help?
I shrug my shoulders as I answered positively "Yes!", thinking already surely, you can ask whatever you want, but I won't give you a dime.
-beggar-I am just out of jail, and I don't have money to get to my home. I could be killing, stealing, raping, but I am just here asking for your help. Will you give me some money?
-Felipe-No!
While he spoke I quickly looked around searching for a policemen to run to in case of trouble, but there was none to be found. His strategy was attempting to intimidate me into giving him money, but I wasn't going to give in.
So he simply went to the next persons in line for his next victims. First an old man and than a woman. I could see in her face that she was scared of him and I thought how pleasant it would be to hit his head with a baseball club and rid the world of this disgusting scum. For I moment I considered hitting him, but quickly discarted the idea and moved away to my bus. I had important documents and a lot to loose in terms of health, legal problems, etc. He has nothing to loose, he could just as well kill me right there and noone would care.
Crazy racist PSOL and PT leftists
And now the worse of Brazil: The disgusting marxists. The first newspaper that I read already had them all over it. They fight for the creation of racial quotas in universities and public jobs. Being white in Brazil is not very much unlike being a jew in Nazy germany. Jews were opressed by the nazis. We are opressed by the marxists.
Funny that merely getting rid of the marxists does not trully solve much of anything. I thought that Poland must be paradise as there are so few marxists. But then nearly the entire middle class is composed by egoistic neoliberals who want to close public hospitals, schools and the public transport. Who do I hate more? PSOL and PT leftists from Brazil that racially discriminate me or people that would like to make the country into an anarchistic hellhole? Neither of them have any notion of honor, purity, good nor justice.
From time to time I think that we should give up already fighting for the western civilization and let the arabs make a caliphade on it. All of those problems would be instantaneously solved: The islamists would quickly decapitate all marxists, cut the hands of the thiefs (less crime in Brazil!) and shut up the liberals. And the best of all: marxists and liberals love muslims, so they would finally stop complaining and trying to impose their crazy social experiments.
Errata
I changed my mind. I have decided who is worse: The communists are far worse than the neoliberals. If the neoliberals kill public transport I can always buy a car, a bike or go on foot. If they close down public hospitals just pay a private medic or ignore the desease. If they close the public universities and schools I can just buy some books and learn alone at home. But I cannot become black to satisfy the racist communists. That's why communism is my mortal enemy and no truce is possible. Any kind of society is better than post-modernist communism. I'd even prefer sharia. At least they don't have racial quotas.
Translation: Better dead than red.
Melting chocolate
The chocolate I brought from Poland became a mess, completely melted, even while I simply kept it over my desk! It surely isn't made to stand +35 degrees =) I tried to fix the situation by putting it on the fridge but this wasn't such a great idea. The chocolate and the paper got glued together and couldnt be easily separated.
Delicious food
There are some particular food products which cannot be found in Poland no matter how hard you search:
*Flan Paulista sabor caramelo
*Requeijão (marcas Poços de Caldas ou Catupiry)
*Pão de Queijo
*Goiaba e goiabada (sweet from goiaba)
*Queijo minas frescal
*Pão de Milho (can be found in Poland but is very, very rare)
*Patê de atum coqueiro
Good weather, hot sea water and strong waves
The weather is all year long between 15 and 35 degrees, so no mróz (deep polish cold in winter from -10 to -20 degrees). Having been for more than 1 year at the beach only in the baltic, with it's weak waves and freezing temperature, and in Portugal, which has a slightly less freezing atlantic, I couldn't remember how warm is the water temperature in São Paulo state. It is excelent, cold enough to refresh from the sun, but hot enough so that you don't feel any cold by staying there. A downside is that many beaches (such as Camburiu, Pauba, Maresias) has very strong waves, so you are constantly fighting to stay in the same place and you quickly get tired of dodging the waves. There do are beaches with calm waves, such as Riviera de São Lourenço, however.
Keeping the shape with São Paulo's public transport
People that use public transport in São Paulo are guaranteed to be in good shape. You have to exercise your arm muscles to avoid falling in the bus as it accelerates and turns quickly in the streets (you will almost surely be standing as it is so full). Your legs too will get some work as you go up and down the streets of the city and up and down metro stairs (thought most places have rolling stairs).
Threatening beggers
In a quick trip to the city center (Sé) to register a document I got threatened by 2 different people. First while walking from Metro Sé to my destination, a cartório (civil registration office), a young dark skinned beggar asked me for money. I solidly ignored him. So he started calling me names, insulting me and in the end even said that I'm surely not brazilian, I'm argentinean and should go back there. WTF?
In the way back I had to wait in a line to recharge my bus ticket and so came a middle aged black man with his face filled with scars. He stood ridiculously close to me, and I could smell his sweat.
-beggar-Can I ask you for help?
I shrug my shoulders as I answered positively "Yes!", thinking already surely, you can ask whatever you want, but I won't give you a dime.
-beggar-I am just out of jail, and I don't have money to get to my home. I could be killing, stealing, raping, but I am just here asking for your help. Will you give me some money?
-Felipe-No!
While he spoke I quickly looked around searching for a policemen to run to in case of trouble, but there was none to be found. His strategy was attempting to intimidate me into giving him money, but I wasn't going to give in.
So he simply went to the next persons in line for his next victims. First an old man and than a woman. I could see in her face that she was scared of him and I thought how pleasant it would be to hit his head with a baseball club and rid the world of this disgusting scum. For I moment I considered hitting him, but quickly discarted the idea and moved away to my bus. I had important documents and a lot to loose in terms of health, legal problems, etc. He has nothing to loose, he could just as well kill me right there and noone would care.
Crazy racist PSOL and PT leftists
And now the worse of Brazil: The disgusting marxists. The first newspaper that I read already had them all over it. They fight for the creation of racial quotas in universities and public jobs. Being white in Brazil is not very much unlike being a jew in Nazy germany. Jews were opressed by the nazis. We are opressed by the marxists.
Funny that merely getting rid of the marxists does not trully solve much of anything. I thought that Poland must be paradise as there are so few marxists. But then nearly the entire middle class is composed by egoistic neoliberals who want to close public hospitals, schools and the public transport. Who do I hate more? PSOL and PT leftists from Brazil that racially discriminate me or people that would like to make the country into an anarchistic hellhole? Neither of them have any notion of honor, purity, good nor justice.
From time to time I think that we should give up already fighting for the western civilization and let the arabs make a caliphade on it. All of those problems would be instantaneously solved: The islamists would quickly decapitate all marxists, cut the hands of the thiefs (less crime in Brazil!) and shut up the liberals. And the best of all: marxists and liberals love muslims, so they would finally stop complaining and trying to impose their crazy social experiments.
Errata
I changed my mind. I have decided who is worse: The communists are far worse than the neoliberals. If the neoliberals kill public transport I can always buy a car, a bike or go on foot. If they close down public hospitals just pay a private medic or ignore the desease. If they close the public universities and schools I can just buy some books and learn alone at home. But I cannot become black to satisfy the racist communists. That's why communism is my mortal enemy and no truce is possible. Any kind of society is better than post-modernist communism. I'd even prefer sharia. At least they don't have racial quotas.
quarta-feira, 27 de fevereiro de 2013
Análise da HRTP3
Já analisei várias empresas neste blog e agora chegou a vez da HRT Participações (HRTP3), uma empresa que explora gás e petróleo na Bacia do Solimões e nas águas da Namíbia. Esta empresa está interessante pois está extremamente barata. Ao preço atual de 3,55 a empresa está sendo vendida por 0,3 vezes seu valor patrimonial (R$12,61 por ação, totalizando 3,7 bilhões de reais) e mais do que isso: É até mesmo menos do que o caixa líquido por ação da empresa (de R$3,97)! Outro fator ainda que torna o preço atual injusto é que a empresa não tem dívidas.
Bom, mas então está barato. Mas e daí, será que ela vai achar Petróleo ou monetizar o Gás no Solimões? E o que acontece se ela falhar totalmente? Bom, se ela não encontrar nada na Namíbia e nem conseguisse monetizar seu gás no Solimões e tiver que vender seus restos mortais, na pior das hipóteses o acionário perde tudo. Mas quando isso poderia acontecer? Com o prejuízo atual de 275 milhões por ano, um caixa no 3T12 de 1173 milhões de reais e ainda considerando que ela pode fazer farm-outs, acho impossível que a empresa fique sem dinheiro antes de 2020.
Veja bem, no recente farm-out com a Galp a empresa vendeu 14% de 3 PELs na Namíbia por US$100 milhões, sendo que ela tem 5 PELs lá. Fazendo uma regra de três simples, o valor total do que ela ainda tem nos 5 PELs na Namíbia vale R$5,5 por ação. E isso é valor de farm out, o tipo que seria feito se ela desistisse ou precise de caixa. É muita grana considerando que o prejuízo atual é aproximadamente R$1 por ação por ano.
Outra coisa que acho muito importante ao estudar um empresa é o histórico dela, que está na tabela abaixo. Em 2010 foi realizado o IPO da HRTP3 e nele os investidores colocaram 2,5 bilhões de reais no caixa da empresa em troca de algo como 45% de participação na empresa. Os controladores colocaram 400 milhões por 55% da empresa. Nada justo, mas está melhor que nas empresas X onde o Eike entrou com menos e saiu com muito mais. Depois disso a empresa ainda conseguir mais 200 milhões num aumento de capital e outros 1,3 bilhão ao se unir com a UNX. Todos os cálculos mencionados até este momento além do histórico da empresa podem ser observados na tabela abaixo:
Ok, então estabelecemos que a empresa não deve ficar sem dinheiro nos próximos 8 anos e que pelo preço atual estamos comprando uma barganha em relação ao que o pessoal do IPO pagou (R$22,9 por ação), em relação ao VAP (R$12 por ação) e em relação ao pessoal da UNX (que entrou com R$7,36 por ação). Mas agora falta estabelecer que o negócio é bom, e que há uma chance de ganhar muito dinheiro com ele. Vamos começar pelas perspectivas na Namíbia:
Blocos na Namíbia
Os blocos na Namíbia pertencentes a HRT podem ser vistos na tabela abaixo:
E além disso também vale a pena ver o gráfico de prospectos da HRT, que mostram a chance de sucesso versus a estimativa de reservas em cada prospecto.
Um prospecto é uma sub-área que está localizada dentro de 1 ou mais blocos, e acredito que os furos devam ser sempre nestas áreas dos prospectos. Vale a pena ver também o mapa dos blocos na Namíbia. A Bácia de Walvis é a parte central e do norte e a de Orange a parte no sul.
As últimas notícias mostram que no início de Fevereiro a Sonda "Transocean Marinas" chegou na Bahia de Walvis, que tem 2 PELs: 17 e 23. A sonda vai furar poços no PEL 23 aonde fica o prospecto Murombe que tem 23% de chance de sucesso e é o prospecto com a maior quantia estimada de óleo da HRTP: de 4 a 10,7 bilhões de barris. Acho que essa é a grande chance da HRTP na Namíbia, pois é na bacia de Walvis. Na Bacia de Orange a uns meses atrás teve o poço seco da British Petroleum, sem falar que lá tem o Campo de Kudo, que já foi perfurado centenas de vezes procurando óleo e só acharam gás...
O trabalho deve começar em março e terminar 60 dias depois, então em maio, no máximo junho. É informação extremamente relevante pra quem brinca com o papel deixar ele em mãos paradinho nessas datas.
Se achar um poço comercial no PEL23, daí vejamos o quanto ela pode ganhar produzindo petróleo: Supondo que consiga conectar 3 poços, cada um com produção de 5 mil barris por dia, como os da OGX, daí teriamos um possível lucro de:
15 mil barris * US$ 100 por barril * 1,9 R$ por US$ * 300 dias (menos que o ano para o caso de falhas) * 10% de lucro sobre a receita = 85 milhões de reais por ano
Então pelo que vejo os poços teriam que ter uma vazão bem melhor que a da OGX, ou então termos mais poços ... vamos ver. Depois de achar petróleo uma opção pode ser a HRT simplesmente vender o bloco pelo quintuplo que já obteve até agora da Galt (proporcionalmente é claro), pois um bloco produtivo com certeza vale muito mais que um bloco incerto. Daí outra empresa com maior escala pode assumir e fazer a produção. Essa estratégia seria bem segura e só com a venda do PEL23 já poderiamos ter: 84% (parte da HRT no PEL23) * US$ 100 milhões * 1,9 R$ por US$ * 2 * 5 / (14% * 3)= 2 bilhões ou R$7 por ação, que já seria o dobro da cotação atual R$3,55.
Se der poço seco no PEL23 daí a coisa fica preta ... pelo menos na África. A HRT ainda tem a possibilidade de ganhar dinheiro na bacia do Solimões.
Gás no Solimões
A HRT já encontrou significativas reservas de gás nos seus blocos na Bácia do Solimões e está estudando com a Petrobrás como fazer a monetização deste gás. O gás vale muito menos que o petróleo, mas por outro lado ele não necessáriamente é barato não. Nos Estados Unidos o gás se tornou extremamente barato devido ao uso da técnica de fracionamento com injeção de água e químicos por todo país, mas isto é um evento local. Ao contrário do petróleo, o preço do gás varia muito de região para região e aqui vale a pena lembrar do exemplo da Europa, aonde se paga um preço bem alto pelo gás da Gasprom, empresa russa que trás gás lá da Sibéria para vender para os europeus. O mercado natural para o gás da HRT seria o Brasil, mas não podemos descartar por exemplo levar em navios gás para a Europa! Na Polônia por exemplo foi construído um novo terminal de gás para poder comprar gás de outros países via navio, sem ficar refém da Rússia.
Não tenho dados exatos de como seria a monetização do gás no Solimões, mas se a Rússia tem ganhos bilhonários vendendo gás da Sibéria pros europeus, por que não teria lucro também a HRT? O único porém é que em todo trajeto a Rússia transporta seu gás por gasodutos, o meio mais barato de se transportar gás. O transporte via navios certamente abocanharia boa parte do lucro e me parece pouco provável que surja nos próximos anos um gasoduto para o Amazonas. Infelizmente todos sabemos como obras de infra-estrutura, mesmo quando se quer e há dinheiro, conseguem se arrastar por décadas no Brasil...
Bom, mas então está barato. Mas e daí, será que ela vai achar Petróleo ou monetizar o Gás no Solimões? E o que acontece se ela falhar totalmente? Bom, se ela não encontrar nada na Namíbia e nem conseguisse monetizar seu gás no Solimões e tiver que vender seus restos mortais, na pior das hipóteses o acionário perde tudo. Mas quando isso poderia acontecer? Com o prejuízo atual de 275 milhões por ano, um caixa no 3T12 de 1173 milhões de reais e ainda considerando que ela pode fazer farm-outs, acho impossível que a empresa fique sem dinheiro antes de 2020.
Veja bem, no recente farm-out com a Galp a empresa vendeu 14% de 3 PELs na Namíbia por US$100 milhões, sendo que ela tem 5 PELs lá. Fazendo uma regra de três simples, o valor total do que ela ainda tem nos 5 PELs na Namíbia vale R$5,5 por ação. E isso é valor de farm out, o tipo que seria feito se ela desistisse ou precise de caixa. É muita grana considerando que o prejuízo atual é aproximadamente R$1 por ação por ano.
Outra coisa que acho muito importante ao estudar um empresa é o histórico dela, que está na tabela abaixo. Em 2010 foi realizado o IPO da HRTP3 e nele os investidores colocaram 2,5 bilhões de reais no caixa da empresa em troca de algo como 45% de participação na empresa. Os controladores colocaram 400 milhões por 55% da empresa. Nada justo, mas está melhor que nas empresas X onde o Eike entrou com menos e saiu com muito mais. Depois disso a empresa ainda conseguir mais 200 milhões num aumento de capital e outros 1,3 bilhão ao se unir com a UNX. Todos os cálculos mencionados até este momento além do histórico da empresa podem ser observados na tabela abaixo:
| Ano | Patrimonio | Receita | Lucro | Caixa Lq | Cotação | # Ações | VPA por ação | Caixa por ação |
| M R$ | M R$ | M R$ | M R$ | R$ | M | R$ | R$ | |
| 2009 | 407 | 0 | -13 | 342 | 127,85 | 3,18 | ||
| IPO em 25 Out de 2010 | 2474 | 22,4 | 108 | 22,91 | ||||
| Fim de 2010 | 2660 | 0 | -142 | 2425 | 22,4 | 230 | 11,57 | |
| Aumento de capital em 2011: Integralização das warrants | 194 | 26,35 | 11,57 | |||||
| Aumento de capital em 2011: Aquisição da UNX | 1272 | 32,6 | 7,36 | |||||
| 1T11 | 0 | -13 | ||||||
| 2T11 | 8 | -53 | ||||||
| 3T11 | 1 | -101 | ||||||
| 4T11 | 3872 | 1 | -137 | 1491 | 290 | |||
| 1T12 | 3 | 53 | ||||||
| 2T12 -> Desdobramento 1/50 em Junho | / | 0 | -51 | |||||
| 3T12 | 3722 | 1 | -140 | 1173 | 295 | 12,61 | 3,97 | |
| 4T12 | 4 | |||||||
| Soma de 2012 | -275 | |||||||
| Estimativas sem produção | ||||||||
| Dez 2013 | 3447 | 0 | -275 | 898 | 295 | 3,04 | ||
| Dez 2014 | 3172 | 0 | -275 | 623 | 295 | 2,11 | ||
| 'Dez 2015 | 2897 | 0 | -275 | 348 | 295 | 1,18 | ||
| Patrimonio | Preco (M US$) | Ativo | Preco (M R$) | # Ações (M) | Valor por ação (R$) | |||
| Farm out 14% Namibia p/ Galp | Fev 2003 | 100 M US$ | PEL 23 in the Walvis Basin and PELs 24 and 28 in the Orange Basin | 200 | 295 | 0,68 | ||
| Meu calculo pelo valor dos pocos da Namibia pelo Farm Out | Fev 2003 | 2090,48 | 295 | 7,08 |
Ok, então estabelecemos que a empresa não deve ficar sem dinheiro nos próximos 8 anos e que pelo preço atual estamos comprando uma barganha em relação ao que o pessoal do IPO pagou (R$22,9 por ação), em relação ao VAP (R$12 por ação) e em relação ao pessoal da UNX (que entrou com R$7,36 por ação). Mas agora falta estabelecer que o negócio é bom, e que há uma chance de ganhar muito dinheiro com ele. Vamos começar pelas perspectivas na Namíbia:
Blocos na Namíbia
Os blocos na Namíbia pertencentes a HRT podem ser vistos na tabela abaixo:
| Blocos Exploratórios – Bacia de Walvis – Namíbia | Blocos | Operado pela HRTP? | Participação | Oil | Gas | Outros |
| M bbl | M bbl | |||||
| PEL17 | 1711A | Não | 2,85% | |||
| 1711B | Não | |||||
| Blocos Exploratórios – Bacia de Walvis – Namíbia | Operado pela HRTP? | Participação | Oil | Gas | Outros | |
| M bbl | M bbl | |||||
| PEL23 | 2112B | Sim | 86,00% | 2393 | 885 | |
| 2212A | Sim | Murombe Prospect | ||||
| Blocos Exploratórios – Bacia de Orange – Namíbia | Operado pela HRTP? | Participação | Oil | Gas | Próximo ao Campo de Kudo com gás, mas sem óleo | |
| M bbl | M bbl | |||||
| PEL24 | 2713B | Sim | 81,00% | 595 | 685 | Poco seco no vizinho Kabeljou (2714/6-1) |
| Moosehead Prospect | ||||||
| 2713A | Sim | |||||
| PEL28 | 2813A | Sim | 77,20% | 968 | 262 | Blue Waxbill Prospect |
| 2814B | Sim | Scops Owl Prospect | ||||
| 2914A | Sim | Shoebill Prospect | ||||
| Guineafowl Prospect | ||||||
| Flamingo Prospect | ||||||
| PEL22 | 2815 | Sim | 95,00% | 1150 | 885 | Meerkat Prospect |
| 2816 | Sim | |||||
| 2915 | Sim |
E além disso também vale a pena ver o gráfico de prospectos da HRT, que mostram a chance de sucesso versus a estimativa de reservas em cada prospecto.
O trabalho deve começar em março e terminar 60 dias depois, então em maio, no máximo junho. É informação extremamente relevante pra quem brinca com o papel deixar ele em mãos paradinho nessas datas.
Se achar um poço comercial no PEL23, daí vejamos o quanto ela pode ganhar produzindo petróleo: Supondo que consiga conectar 3 poços, cada um com produção de 5 mil barris por dia, como os da OGX, daí teriamos um possível lucro de:
15 mil barris * US$ 100 por barril * 1,9 R$ por US$ * 300 dias (menos que o ano para o caso de falhas) * 10% de lucro sobre a receita = 85 milhões de reais por ano
Então pelo que vejo os poços teriam que ter uma vazão bem melhor que a da OGX, ou então termos mais poços ... vamos ver. Depois de achar petróleo uma opção pode ser a HRT simplesmente vender o bloco pelo quintuplo que já obteve até agora da Galt (proporcionalmente é claro), pois um bloco produtivo com certeza vale muito mais que um bloco incerto. Daí outra empresa com maior escala pode assumir e fazer a produção. Essa estratégia seria bem segura e só com a venda do PEL23 já poderiamos ter: 84% (parte da HRT no PEL23) * US$ 100 milhões * 1,9 R$ por US$ * 2 * 5 / (14% * 3)= 2 bilhões ou R$7 por ação, que já seria o dobro da cotação atual R$3,55.
Se der poço seco no PEL23 daí a coisa fica preta ... pelo menos na África. A HRT ainda tem a possibilidade de ganhar dinheiro na bacia do Solimões.
Gás no Solimões
A HRT já encontrou significativas reservas de gás nos seus blocos na Bácia do Solimões e está estudando com a Petrobrás como fazer a monetização deste gás. O gás vale muito menos que o petróleo, mas por outro lado ele não necessáriamente é barato não. Nos Estados Unidos o gás se tornou extremamente barato devido ao uso da técnica de fracionamento com injeção de água e químicos por todo país, mas isto é um evento local. Ao contrário do petróleo, o preço do gás varia muito de região para região e aqui vale a pena lembrar do exemplo da Europa, aonde se paga um preço bem alto pelo gás da Gasprom, empresa russa que trás gás lá da Sibéria para vender para os europeus. O mercado natural para o gás da HRT seria o Brasil, mas não podemos descartar por exemplo levar em navios gás para a Europa! Na Polônia por exemplo foi construído um novo terminal de gás para poder comprar gás de outros países via navio, sem ficar refém da Rússia.
Não tenho dados exatos de como seria a monetização do gás no Solimões, mas se a Rússia tem ganhos bilhonários vendendo gás da Sibéria pros europeus, por que não teria lucro também a HRT? O único porém é que em todo trajeto a Rússia transporta seu gás por gasodutos, o meio mais barato de se transportar gás. O transporte via navios certamente abocanharia boa parte do lucro e me parece pouco provável que surja nos próximos anos um gasoduto para o Amazonas. Infelizmente todos sabemos como obras de infra-estrutura, mesmo quando se quer e há dinheiro, conseguem se arrastar por décadas no Brasil...
domingo, 24 de fevereiro de 2013
Efeito dos Royalties da Mineração no lucro da Vale
Aqui pretendo começar a desvendar um fator importantíssimo para o lucro futuro da Vale: Os Royalties da Mineração.
Diferentemente do Lula, que apesar de comunista só sorriu, ajudou os pobres e reclamou da "herança maldita", a imperatriz Dilma está colocando em prática as idéias socialistas no âmbito econômico e isto trás óbvios efeitos nefastos para quem deseja investir em empresas brasileiras afetadas pelas medidas dela. Já foram a bola da vez os bancos e as elétricas e agora parece que chegou a vez da mineração, com a campanha pelo aumento dos Royalties. Já se fala em aumenta-los há tempos, como pode-se ver neste artigo dalgum comunista: http://www.horadopovo.com.br/2011/janeiro/2927-14-01-2011/P2/pag2g.htm
O novo projeto que pretende aumentar brutalmente os royalties se chama "Código da mineração" e está detalhado aqui: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/mercado/19418-governo-quer-mais-receita-com-o-novo-codigo-mineral.shtml
Tudo indica que o projeto ira aumentar os royalties para 6% da receita bruta. Por sorte isso não impactará toda a receita da Vale , pois ela tem outras atividades que não serão impactadas como uma receita de mais de R$2 bilhões com suas ferrovias, R$1 bilhão com seus portos e ainda muita receita de investimentos no exterior e investimentos no Brasil que não são sujeitos a royalties da Mineração como fertilizantes e siderugia. Então vou chutar aqui, chutar pois não parece ser trivial achar essa informação então me corrija quem souber em mais detalhes, vou chutar que da receita da Vale 75% será afetada pela taxa. A Vale já paga Royalties, mas atualmente eles são de 2% da receita líquida e segundo o artigo da Folha a mudança para receita bruta já duplica o valor, então podemos considerar que o aumento será de 1% para 6% da receita bruta, um aumento de 5%.
5% de 75% da receita da Vale dos últimos 12 meses (92 bi de reais) é 3,5 bilhões de reais, que vão sair diretamente do lucro da Vale por ano como um novo gasto sem nenhuma contrapartida. Como o lucro da Vale nos últimos 12 meses foi de 23,5 bilhões de reais, isto equivale a uma queda no lucro de 14,5%.
Então está ai o número, e fica para os pequenos investidores adicionarem mais este dado nos seus modelos fundamentalistas e ver se ainda vale a pena investir na empresa. A minha conclusão é que 14,5% de queda no lucro é fogo, mas suportável se o minério de se mantiver a no mínimo US$ 140 por tonelada. O problema pra Vale mesmo seria seria se a China desacelerar ou tentar forçar a queda no preço do minério ... daí unindo mais royalties com menos receita podemos ter uma combinação amarga.
Diferentemente do Lula, que apesar de comunista só sorriu, ajudou os pobres e reclamou da "herança maldita", a imperatriz Dilma está colocando em prática as idéias socialistas no âmbito econômico e isto trás óbvios efeitos nefastos para quem deseja investir em empresas brasileiras afetadas pelas medidas dela. Já foram a bola da vez os bancos e as elétricas e agora parece que chegou a vez da mineração, com a campanha pelo aumento dos Royalties. Já se fala em aumenta-los há tempos, como pode-se ver neste artigo dalgum comunista: http://www.horadopovo.com.br/2011/janeiro/2927-14-01-2011/P2/pag2g.htm
O novo projeto que pretende aumentar brutalmente os royalties se chama "Código da mineração" e está detalhado aqui: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/mercado/19418-governo-quer-mais-receita-com-o-novo-codigo-mineral.shtml
Tudo indica que o projeto ira aumentar os royalties para 6% da receita bruta. Por sorte isso não impactará toda a receita da Vale , pois ela tem outras atividades que não serão impactadas como uma receita de mais de R$2 bilhões com suas ferrovias, R$1 bilhão com seus portos e ainda muita receita de investimentos no exterior e investimentos no Brasil que não são sujeitos a royalties da Mineração como fertilizantes e siderugia. Então vou chutar aqui, chutar pois não parece ser trivial achar essa informação então me corrija quem souber em mais detalhes, vou chutar que da receita da Vale 75% será afetada pela taxa. A Vale já paga Royalties, mas atualmente eles são de 2% da receita líquida e segundo o artigo da Folha a mudança para receita bruta já duplica o valor, então podemos considerar que o aumento será de 1% para 6% da receita bruta, um aumento de 5%.
5% de 75% da receita da Vale dos últimos 12 meses (92 bi de reais) é 3,5 bilhões de reais, que vão sair diretamente do lucro da Vale por ano como um novo gasto sem nenhuma contrapartida. Como o lucro da Vale nos últimos 12 meses foi de 23,5 bilhões de reais, isto equivale a uma queda no lucro de 14,5%.
Então está ai o número, e fica para os pequenos investidores adicionarem mais este dado nos seus modelos fundamentalistas e ver se ainda vale a pena investir na empresa. A minha conclusão é que 14,5% de queda no lucro é fogo, mas suportável se o minério de se mantiver a no mínimo US$ 140 por tonelada. O problema pra Vale mesmo seria seria se a China desacelerar ou tentar forçar a queda no preço do minério ... daí unindo mais royalties com menos receita podemos ter uma combinação amarga.
terça-feira, 19 de fevereiro de 2013
PO seeks to dilapidate 2000 km of polish rail
I understand that some local cargo branches without use might need to be cut, but PO has now gone too far. They want to destroy 2000 km of polish railways, including several important branches, even sections which stand next to renovated lines and are vital for those renovated lines. Just like they always do, the neoliberals prefer to destroy instead of create.
It all started in September when the railways trade union published that PKP PLK had contracted the Mckinsey consulting firm to choose which lines to destroy and soon a lot of talked about how absurd, ridiculous and insane the Mckinsey work was. It planned for the destruction of 4000km of lines and received terrible reviews in the internet and Sejmiks all over poland called PLK for explanations. Some highlights: "Dotarliśmy do dokumentów z których zieje irracjonalną grozą i zupełnie realnym HORROREM na torach – nie mówiąc o absurdzie tak wielkim że po prostu trudno w to zwyczajnie uwierzyć. A jednak... - pisze na blogu Robert Wyszyński." and "Mówiąc językiem ludzkim, chodzi o oszacowanie kosztów – uwaga – LIKWIDACJI fizycznej (to znaczy ROZEBRANIA) linii lub odcinków linii lokalnych oraz regionalnych podanych w załączonej tabeli.". Link: http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/35507/4_tys_km_linii_do_likwidacji__czyli_restrukturyzacja_w_wykonaniu_PLK_cz1.htm
The 4000km plan can be seen in this map:
Very soon afterawards PLK requested Rynek Kolejowe to take down their article and claimed that it was all false and no such thing was planned. They even travelled around Poland and assured local governments that they would not make a massive liquidation of lines. [Link]
And I believed them! But now, in 15 February 2013 I just found out that they are liers. From now on I will simply assume that PO is lying all the time. It will save a lot of deception. They have chosen half of the lines from the McKinzey line and want to liquidate them. Link:
http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/39682/2_tys_km_linii_mniej_Oto_lista.htm
I have compiled most of the lines (colors red and orange) in this map, to have a global view of their evil work:
The most absurd are the following:
*Lines in Mazuria: 223, 219, 35, 49, 36, 34. This closures are absurd! In the regions there was exactly an effort to modernize the lines. The sections in light green were recently modernized. And now this ridiculous move will cut rail access from one of the largest cities in the region: Łomża, and it will also close two thirds of the Mazurian lines which are a great way to move tourists in this popular touristic area =(
In 219 there is currently a regional train running "Olsztyn - Ełk (Pisz) - Olsztyn" as can be seen here: Link
*Lines in Podkarpackie and Lubelskie: Lines 30, 25, 72, 69, 101, 108, 107. The region already has so few lines, it is absurd to close those very important links, many of which currently have passanger trains running! To make it even more ridiculous, most of the line 30 was recently modernized or will be, and the remaining section is important to make it connected on both sides. On one side the line has Lublin and on the other Łuków, so it is very viable complete, but going simply to the middle of the way will surely kill the line. How could they want to cut those lines? I can only think that it is because this region traditionally votes more for PiS and the evil PO mineons want to punish the local population.
Line 25 connects one of the largest cities in the region, Miliec ... what a stupid idea to close it.
*Line 104 conecting Żywiec and Nowy Sącz -> There is a new rail line from Kraków to this line in the European Union program for 2014-2020 and this lines is essential for this project. How could they think of closing it now? Building a 5 billion zł project just to have it stop in the middle of nowhere because the destination line was closed is the stupidiest idea I've seen from PO so far!
*Line 24 to Belchatów Power Plan and the industrial zone in Belchatów is economically relevant and should not be closed.
And so on and so on...
Compare also with the map of lines recently modernized or under modernization: http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/4894/modernakolei1luty2013.jpg
And to complete besides stupid ideas about closing lines there is also the favorite past time of neoliberals: firing people. First 3000 people lost their jobs in Silesia because of the disordered creation of Kolej Śląsk. Next PLK wants to fire 7000 people. Good job PO, keep going and you might achieve 20% unemployment. Link: http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/39663/Nawet_7_tys_pracownikow_PKP_PLK_straci_prace.htm
I am getting sick and tired of PO, and I think it is about time we take the streets to protests against them. The list of evil acts just doesn't stop:
*They stole our retirement money with the "zmianna OFE", which amounts to an affective new income tax of 5%! A *huge* increase in taxes.
*They increased VAT
*Wanted to steal 5 billions from the european union budget for rail improvements and use it on roads
*Tusk wanted to institute gay marriage, probably to be followed by a law banning any criticism to homossexuality like his illuminated friends like to do.
*Huge increase in the trash collection fee
*Privatization of essential services like water, which lead to higher prices and worse service
It all started in September when the railways trade union published that PKP PLK had contracted the Mckinsey consulting firm to choose which lines to destroy and soon a lot of talked about how absurd, ridiculous and insane the Mckinsey work was. It planned for the destruction of 4000km of lines and received terrible reviews in the internet and Sejmiks all over poland called PLK for explanations. Some highlights: "Dotarliśmy do dokumentów z których zieje irracjonalną grozą i zupełnie realnym HORROREM na torach – nie mówiąc o absurdzie tak wielkim że po prostu trudno w to zwyczajnie uwierzyć. A jednak... - pisze na blogu Robert Wyszyński." and "Mówiąc językiem ludzkim, chodzi o oszacowanie kosztów – uwaga – LIKWIDACJI fizycznej (to znaczy ROZEBRANIA) linii lub odcinków linii lokalnych oraz regionalnych podanych w załączonej tabeli.". Link: http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/35507/4_tys_km_linii_do_likwidacji__czyli_restrukturyzacja_w_wykonaniu_PLK_cz1.htm
The 4000km plan can be seen in this map:
Very soon afterawards PLK requested Rynek Kolejowe to take down their article and claimed that it was all false and no such thing was planned. They even travelled around Poland and assured local governments that they would not make a massive liquidation of lines. [Link]
And I believed them! But now, in 15 February 2013 I just found out that they are liers. From now on I will simply assume that PO is lying all the time. It will save a lot of deception. They have chosen half of the lines from the McKinzey line and want to liquidate them. Link:
http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/39682/2_tys_km_linii_mniej_Oto_lista.htm
I have compiled most of the lines (colors red and orange) in this map, to have a global view of their evil work:
*Lines in Mazuria: 223, 219, 35, 49, 36, 34. This closures are absurd! In the regions there was exactly an effort to modernize the lines. The sections in light green were recently modernized. And now this ridiculous move will cut rail access from one of the largest cities in the region: Łomża, and it will also close two thirds of the Mazurian lines which are a great way to move tourists in this popular touristic area =(
In 219 there is currently a regional train running "Olsztyn - Ełk (Pisz) - Olsztyn" as can be seen here: Link
*Lines in Podkarpackie and Lubelskie: Lines 30, 25, 72, 69, 101, 108, 107. The region already has so few lines, it is absurd to close those very important links, many of which currently have passanger trains running! To make it even more ridiculous, most of the line 30 was recently modernized or will be, and the remaining section is important to make it connected on both sides. On one side the line has Lublin and on the other Łuków, so it is very viable complete, but going simply to the middle of the way will surely kill the line.
Line 25 connects one of the largest cities in the region, Miliec ... what a stupid idea to close it.
*Line 104 conecting Żywiec and Nowy Sącz -> There is a new rail line from Kraków to this line in the European Union program for 2014-2020 and this lines is essential for this project. How could they think of closing it now?
*Line 24 to Belchatów Power Plan and the industrial zone in Belchatów is economically relevant and should not be closed.
And so on and so on...
Compare also with the map of lines recently modernized or under modernization: http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/4894/modernakolei1luty2013.jpg
And to complete besides stupid ideas about closing lines there is also the favorite past time of neoliberals: firing people. First 3000 people lost their jobs in Silesia because of the disordered creation of Kolej Śląsk. Next PLK wants to fire 7000 people. Good job PO, keep going and you might achieve 20% unemployment. Link: http://www.rynek-kolejowy.pl/39663/Nawet_7_tys_pracownikow_PKP_PLK_straci_prace.htm
I am getting sick and tired of PO, and I think it is about time we take the streets to protests against them. The list of evil acts just doesn't stop:
*They stole our retirement money with the "zmianna OFE", which amounts to an affective new income tax of 5%! A *huge* increase in taxes.
*They increased VAT
*Wanted to steal 5 billions from the european union budget for rail improvements and use it on roads
*Tusk wanted to institute gay marriage, probably to be followed by a law banning any criticism to homossexuality like his illuminated friends like to do.
*Huge increase in the trash collection fee
*Privatization of essential services like water, which lead to higher prices and worse service
terça-feira, 12 de fevereiro de 2013
Zarobki w Polsce
Tyn grafik mi się wydaje dość czykawy i wiec warto zostać tutaj na przyszłość.
Zródło: http://like-a-geek.jogger.pl/2012/04/03/czy-naprawde-srednia-krajowa-jest-pompowana-przez-grupke-bog
terça-feira, 22 de janeiro de 2013
Pociągi regionalne na Dolnym Śląsku
Pociągi regionalne na Dolnym Śląsku. Tu są table dla pociągów regionalnych na Dolnym Śląsku, dane z dnia 22 stycznia 2013. One pomogą lepiej zrozumieć siatkę regionalnych połączeń kolejowych na Dolnym Śląsku.
Mapa, którą sam wykonałem:
Links:
*http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/7069/19stycznia2012.jpg
*http://kolej.dolnyslask.pl/fileadmin/.svn/tmp/inne/mapa_polaczen_PR_2013.jpg
Przez Świdnica: Linia Legnica-Świdnica-Kłodzko Miasto (14)
Dzierżoniów Śląski 05:35 KD 69141 Legnica +3h przez Świdnica Miasto 05:55
Kłodzko Miasto 05:50 KD 69142 Legnica +3h przez Świdnica Miasto 07:16
Kłodzko Miasto 07:18 KD 69144 Legnica przez Świdnica Miasto 09:10
Kłodzko Miasto 12:08 KD 69146 Legnica przez Świdnica Miasto 13:48
Kłodzko Miasto 13:59 KD 69148 Legnica przez Świdnica Miasto 15:33
Kłodzko Miasto 15:25 KD 69150 Legnica przez Świdnica Miasto 16:59
Kłodzko Miasto 18:54 KD 69152 Legnica przez Świdnica Miasto 20:35
Kłodzko Miasto
Kłodzko Główne +3
Kamieniec Ząbkowicki +24
Ząbkowice Śląskie +40
Dzierżoniów Śląski +66
Świdnica Miasto +86
Jaworzyna Śląska +101
Jawor +2h30
Legnica +3h
Legnica 06:08 KD 69120 Kłodzko Miasto
Legnica 09:47 KD 69122 Kłodzko Miasto
Legnica 12:41 KD 69124 Kłodzko Miasto
Legnica 14:13 KD 69126 Kłodzko Główne
Legnica 15:50 KD 69128 Kłodzko Miasto
Legnica 18:34 KD 69130 Kłodzko Główne
Legnica 20:04 KD 69132 Dzierżoniów Śląski
Legnica 06:08
Jawor +30
Jaworzyna Śląska +1h10
Świdnica Miasto +1h30
Dzierżoniów Śląski +1h40
Ząbkowice Śląskie +2h18
Kłodzko Główne +2h57
Kłodzko Miasto +3h
Lubin
bez ruch, ale wróci: Link
Linia Legnica-Żary (9)
Żary 05:30 76130 Legnica +1h55
Żary 14:15 76132 Legnica +1h55
Żary 19:00 76134 Legnica +1h55
Żary 17:28 KD 76146 Legnica +1h55
Żary 07:45 KD 76142 Wrocław Główny +2h50
Żary 15:43 KD 76144 Wrocław Główny +2h50
Legnica 07:28 67133 Zielona Góra przez Żary
Wrocław Główny 12:47 KD 67143 Żary przez Legnica
Legnica 17:13 67147 Żary
Linia Żary-Węgliniec (5)
Żary 09:20 KD 76722 Węgliniec +1h
Żary 15:40 KD 76724 Węgliniec +1h
Żary 17:25 KD 76728 Jelenia Góra +3h15 przez Węgliniec, Zgorzelec Miasto, Lubań Śląski
Zgorzelec 05:55 KD 67720 Żary +1h25
Jelenia Góra 13:21 KD 67633 Żary +3h20 przez Lubań Śląski, Zgorzelec Miasto, Węgliniec
EC z podobna trasa
z Hamburg w Żary 12:12 EC 249 WAWEL do Wrocław Główny przez Węgliniec, Legnica
z Wroclaw w Żary 14:48 EC 248 WAWEL do Hamburg-Altona
Linia Węgliniec-Zgorzelec-Lubań Śląski-Jelenia Góra (7)
Węgliniec 04:59 KD 69621 Jelenia Góra przez Zgorzelec
Legnica 05:55 KD 69623 Jelenia Góra przez Węgliniec 07:12, Zgorzelec
Wroclaw 09:58 KD 69511 Jelenia Góra przez Węgliniec 12:06, Zgorzelec, Lubań Śląski
Węgliniec 14:53 KD 69625 Jelenia Góra
Jelenia Góra 05:41 KD 69513 Wrocław Główny przez Zgorzelec, Węgliniec 08:04
Jelenia Góra 16:07 KD 69517 Wrocław Główny
Jelenia Góra 18:19 KD 69519 Wrocław Główny
Linia Węgliniec-Lubań Śląski
Bez ruch osobowy
Linia Wałbrzych-Nowa Ruda-Kłodzko (8)
KD 69331 Wałbrzych Główny
KD 69334 Wałbrzych Główny
KD 69336 Wałbrzych Główny
KD 69338 Wałbrzych Główny
KD 69342 Kłodzko Miasto
KD 69344 Kłodzko Miasto
KD 69346 Kłodzko Miasto
KD 69348 Kłodzko Miasto
Linia Lubanka-Kamienna Góra
Bez ruch osobowy
Linia Zgorzelec-Węgliniec-Legnica-Wrocław (16)
Węgliniec 03:54 66522 Wrocław Główny +2h10 przez Legnica
Węgliniec 04:59 66526 Wrocław Główny +2h10
Węgliniec 05:24 66528 Wrocław Główny
Węgliniec 06:28 63120 ŁUŻYCE Kraków Płaszów przez Wrocław. ab Wrocław IR
Węgliniec 06:54 66532 Wrocław Główny
Węgliniec 10:24 66534 Wrocław Główny
Węgliniec 11:54 66536 Wrocław Główny
Wrocław Główny 04:58 66521 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 05:56 66523 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 08:35 66525 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 13:38 66529 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 14:31 66531 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 15:35 66535 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 16:48 66537 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 18:00 66539 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 19:35 36122 ŁUŻYCE REGIO Węgliniec z Krakow jako IR
Wrocław-Legnica (10)
Legnica 04:02 KD 69520 Jelcz Laskowice przez Wrocław
Legnica 05:00 66522 Wrocław Główny
Legnica 05:33 KD 69524 Wrocław Główny
Legnica 06:59 66530 Wrocław Główny
Legnica 18:33 KD 69544 Wrocław Główny
Wrocław Główny 15:08 66533 Legnica +1h
Wrocław Główny 16:05 KD 69533 Legnica +1h
Wrocław Główny 18:59 KD 69541 Legnica
Wrocław Główny 21:12 KD 69543 Legnica
Wrocław Główny 22:45 KD 69547 Legnica
TLK z podobna trasa
Legnica 07:22 TLK 61110 WROCŁAWIANIN Warszawa Wschodnia
Warszawa TLK 16111 WROCŁAWIANIN Legnica przez Wroclaw 20:37
Wrocław-Dresden RegionalExpress (6)
Dresden Hbf 08:09 RE 5791 Wrocław Główny
Wrocław Główny 06:35 RE 5790 Dresden
Wrocław Główny 12:35 RE 5792 Dresden
Wrocław Główny 18:35 RE 5794 Dresden
Wrocław-Trzebnica (18)
Wrocław Główny 04:31 KD 69021 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 08:18 KD 69027 Trzebnica +50min
Wrocław Główny 10:22 KD 69029 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 14:07 KD 69033 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 15:25 KD 69035 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 16:37 KD 69037 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 17:48 KD 69039 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 19:44 KD 69041 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 22:14 KD 69043 Trzebnica
Wrocław-Oława-Brzeg-Opole (32)
Wrocław Główny 05:33 6020 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 06:33 6022 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 07:40 6420 Kędzierzyn Koźle
Wrocław Główny 08:40 6024 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 09:33 6422 Kędzierzyn Koźle
Wrocław Główny 11:36 6424 Kędzierzyn Koźle
Wrocław Główny 12:33 6026 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 13:40 6028 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 14:40 6426 Kędzierzyn Koźle +2h15
Wrocław Główny 15:10 66046 Brzeg +43min
Wrocław Główny 15:40 6030 Opole Główne +1h20
Wrocław Główny 16:08 66048 Brzeg
Wrocław Główny 16:35 6428 Kędzierzyn Koźle
Wrocław Główny 17:40 6032 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 18:40 6430 Kędzierzyn Koźle
Wrocław Główny 20:40 6034 Opole Główne
Wrocław-Siechnice-Jelcz Laskowice-Opole (10)
Wrocław Główny 05:07 KD 69520 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 06:58 KD 69722 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 11:10 KD 69724 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 13:48 KD 69726 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 14:48 66728 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 15:48 66730 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 16:42 66732 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 18:45 66734 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 19:44 KD 69736 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 21:50 66738 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław-Wołów-Głogów-Nowa Sól-Zielona Góra (34)
Wrocław Główny 05:20 6735 Zielona Góra
Wrocław Główny 05:49 66441 Wołów +1h
Wrocław Główny 06:51 66421 Głogów +2h
Wrocław Główny 07:52 KD 69421 Wołów
Wrocław Główny 08:43 6737 Zielona Góra +3h20
Wrocław Główny 10:52 KD 69423 Wołów
Wrocław Główny 12:53 6739 Zielona Góra
Wrocław Główny 14:16 66423 Głogów
Wrocław Główny 14:52 6741 Zielona Góra
Wrocław Główny 15:22 66443 Wołów
Wrocław Główny 15:52 66425 Głogów
Wrocław Główny 16:27 66445 Wołów
Wrocław Główny 16:55 6743 Zielona Góra
Wrocław Główny 17:52 66427 Ścinawa
Wrocław Główny 18:52 66429 Głogów
Wrocław Główny 20:54 66431 Głogów
Wrocław Główny 22:56 66433 Ścinawa +1h15
Wrocław-Rawicz-Leszno (26)
Wrocław Główny 05:26 67931 Leszno
Wrocław Główny 10:27 67933 Leszno
Wrocław Główny 12:32 67935 Leszno
Wrocław Główny 13:33 67830 BARYCZ Poznań Główny
Wrocław Główny 13:59 66621 Rawicz
Wrocław Główny 14:50 67937 Poznań Główny
Wrocław Główny 15:40 67939 Leszno
Wrocław Główny 16:50 67941 Poznań Główny +4h10
Wrocław Główny 17:38 66623 Rawicz
Jelenia Góra 6720 KAMIEŃCZYK Poznań Główny w Wrocław 19:01
Wrocław Główny 19:50 66625 Rawicz +1h35
Wrocław Główny 21:05 67943 Leszno
Wrocław Główny 22:40 66627 Rawicz
Wrocław-Oleśnica-Namysłów-Kluczbork-Lubliniec (20)
Wrocław Główny 05:35 64934 Lubliniec
Wrocław Główny 06:41 60118 Kluczbork
Wrocław Główny 08:25 64936 Lubliniec
Wrocław Główny 10:35 60120 Kluczbork
Wrocław Główny 12:38 64940 Lubliniec
Wrocław Główny 14:31 60122 Kluczbork +2h
Wrocław Główny 15:47 60124 Kluczbork
Wrocław Główny 16:30 64944 Lubliniec +3h30
Wrocław Główny 18:35 60126 Kluczbork
Wrocław Główny 20:39 60128 Kluczbork
Wrocław-Wałbrzech-Jelenia Góra (12)
Wrocław Główny 05:37 66223 Wałbrzych Główny
Wrocław Główny 06:24 66225 CHOJNIK Jelenia Góra
Wrocław Główny 07:41 66227 ŁOMNICA Jelenia Góra +2h40
Wrocław Główny 10:28 7620 Jelenia Góra
Wrocław Główny 13:44 66229 Wałbrzych Główny
Kraków 36120 GALICJA Jelenia Góra do Wrocław Główny 14:58 IR
Wrocław Główny 15:40 66231 Wałbrzych Główny
Wrocław Główny 16:43 66233 Wałbrzych Główny
Wrocław Główny 17:40 66235 Wałbrzych Główny
Łódż 16122 SZKLARKA Jelenia Góra w Wrocław 18:40
Wrocław Główny 20:46 66237 Wałbrzych Główny
Wrocław Główny 22:50 66239 Wałbrzych Główny
Jelenia Góra 15:42 6720 KAMIEŃCZYK Poznań Główny 22h25 w Wrocław 19:01
Wrocław-Strzelin-Kamieniec Ząbkowicki-Kłodzko-Międzylesie-CZ (22)
Wrocław Główny 05:49 15120 NYSA Usti nad Orlici
Wrocław Główny 06:49 66321 Międzylesie
Wrocław Główny 12:45 66329 Międzylesie
Wrocław Główny 13:45 66331 Międzylesie
Wrocław Główny 14:52 66333 Kłodzko Główne
Wrocław Główny 15:45 66335 Międzylesie
Wrocław Główny 16:45 1914 GLACENSIS Pardubice hl.n. +4h30
Wrocław Główny 18:00 66337 MARIANNA ORAŃSKA Bystrzyca Kł. Przed.
Białystok 16128 SZCZELINIEC Międzylesie do Wrocław Główny 19:30 jako IR
Wrocław Główny 20:45 66339 Bystrzyca Kł. Przed.
Wrocław Główny 22:50 66341 Kłodzko Główne
Międzylesie 65114 MAMRY Olsztyn Główny, ab Rawicz IR, przez Wrocław Główny 08:44, Rawicz, Leszno, Poznan
Wrocław-Oleśnica-Twardogóra-Ostrów Wlkp. (8)
Wrocław Główny 07:37 67532 Ostrów Wlkp.
Wrocław Główny 14:15 6120 Łódź Kaliska
Wrocław Główny 16:14 67536 Ostrów Wlkp.
Kłodzko Główne 67538 SUDETY Ostrów Wlkp. w Wrocław 18:56
Łódż 16120 SUDETY Kłodzko Główne przez Wrocław Główny 10:07
Wrocław-Oleśnica-Milicz-Krotoszyn (10)
Wrocław Główny 15:14 67832 Krotoszyn
Wrocław Główny 17:32 67834 Krotoszyn
Wrocław Główny 19:39 66124 Oleśnica
Wrocław Główny 21:30 66126 Oleśnica
Wrocław Główny 22:52 66128 Oleśnica
Jelenia Góra-Lwówek Śląski (8)
Lwówek Śląski 05:56 KD 69640 Jelenia Góra +1h15
Lwówek Śląski 11:04 KD 69642 Jelenia Góra
Lwówek Śląski 16:04 KD 69644 Jelenia Góra
Lwówek Śląski 19:17 KD 69646 Jelenia Góra
Jelenia Góra 04:32 KD 69641 Lwówek Śląski
Jelenia Góra 07:40 KD 69643 Lwówek Śląski
Jelenia Góra 14:40 KD 69647 Lwówek Śląski
Jelenia Góra 17:55 KD 69649 Lwówek Śląski
Mapa, którą sam wykonałem:
Links:
*http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/7069/19stycznia2012.jpg
*http://kolej.dolnyslask.pl/fileadmin/.svn/tmp/inne/mapa_polaczen_PR_2013.jpg
Przez Świdnica: Linia Legnica-Świdnica-Kłodzko Miasto (14)
Dzierżoniów Śląski 05:35 KD 69141 Legnica +3h przez Świdnica Miasto 05:55
Kłodzko Miasto 05:50 KD 69142 Legnica +3h przez Świdnica Miasto 07:16
Kłodzko Miasto 07:18 KD 69144 Legnica przez Świdnica Miasto 09:10
Kłodzko Miasto 12:08 KD 69146 Legnica przez Świdnica Miasto 13:48
Kłodzko Miasto 13:59 KD 69148 Legnica przez Świdnica Miasto 15:33
Kłodzko Miasto 15:25 KD 69150 Legnica przez Świdnica Miasto 16:59
Kłodzko Miasto 18:54 KD 69152 Legnica przez Świdnica Miasto 20:35
Kłodzko Miasto
Kłodzko Główne +3
Kamieniec Ząbkowicki +24
Ząbkowice Śląskie +40
Dzierżoniów Śląski +66
Świdnica Miasto +86
Jaworzyna Śląska +101
Jawor +2h30
Legnica +3h
Legnica 06:08 KD 69120 Kłodzko Miasto
Legnica 09:47 KD 69122 Kłodzko Miasto
Legnica 12:41 KD 69124 Kłodzko Miasto
Legnica 14:13 KD 69126 Kłodzko Główne
Legnica 15:50 KD 69128 Kłodzko Miasto
Legnica 18:34 KD 69130 Kłodzko Główne
Legnica 20:04 KD 69132 Dzierżoniów Śląski
Legnica 06:08
Jawor +30
Jaworzyna Śląska +1h10
Świdnica Miasto +1h30
Dzierżoniów Śląski +1h40
Ząbkowice Śląskie +2h18
Kłodzko Główne +2h57
Kłodzko Miasto +3h
Lubin
bez ruch, ale wróci: Link
Linia Legnica-Żary (9)
Żary 05:30 76130 Legnica +1h55
Żary 14:15 76132 Legnica +1h55
Żary 19:00 76134 Legnica +1h55
Żary 17:28 KD 76146 Legnica +1h55
Żary 07:45 KD 76142 Wrocław Główny +2h50
Żary 15:43 KD 76144 Wrocław Główny +2h50
Legnica 07:28 67133 Zielona Góra przez Żary
Wrocław Główny 12:47 KD 67143 Żary przez Legnica
Legnica 17:13 67147 Żary
Linia Żary-Węgliniec (5)
Żary 09:20 KD 76722 Węgliniec +1h
Żary 15:40 KD 76724 Węgliniec +1h
Żary 17:25 KD 76728 Jelenia Góra +3h15 przez Węgliniec, Zgorzelec Miasto, Lubań Śląski
Zgorzelec 05:55 KD 67720 Żary +1h25
Jelenia Góra 13:21 KD 67633 Żary +3h20 przez Lubań Śląski, Zgorzelec Miasto, Węgliniec
EC z podobna trasa
z Hamburg w Żary 12:12 EC 249 WAWEL do Wrocław Główny przez Węgliniec, Legnica
z Wroclaw w Żary 14:48 EC 248 WAWEL do Hamburg-Altona
Linia Węgliniec-Zgorzelec-Lubań Śląski-Jelenia Góra (7)
Węgliniec 04:59 KD 69621 Jelenia Góra przez Zgorzelec
Legnica 05:55 KD 69623 Jelenia Góra przez Węgliniec 07:12, Zgorzelec
Wroclaw 09:58 KD 69511 Jelenia Góra przez Węgliniec 12:06, Zgorzelec, Lubań Śląski
Węgliniec 14:53 KD 69625 Jelenia Góra
Jelenia Góra 05:41 KD 69513 Wrocław Główny przez Zgorzelec, Węgliniec 08:04
Jelenia Góra 16:07 KD 69517 Wrocław Główny
Jelenia Góra 18:19 KD 69519 Wrocław Główny
Linia Węgliniec-Lubań Śląski
Bez ruch osobowy
Linia Wałbrzych-Nowa Ruda-Kłodzko (8)
KD 69331 Wałbrzych Główny
KD 69334 Wałbrzych Główny
KD 69336 Wałbrzych Główny
KD 69338 Wałbrzych Główny
KD 69342 Kłodzko Miasto
KD 69344 Kłodzko Miasto
KD 69346 Kłodzko Miasto
KD 69348 Kłodzko Miasto
Linia Lubanka-Kamienna Góra
Bez ruch osobowy
Linia Zgorzelec-Węgliniec-Legnica-Wrocław (16)
Węgliniec 03:54 66522 Wrocław Główny +2h10 przez Legnica
Węgliniec 04:59 66526 Wrocław Główny +2h10
Węgliniec 05:24 66528 Wrocław Główny
Węgliniec 06:28 63120 ŁUŻYCE Kraków Płaszów przez Wrocław. ab Wrocław IR
Węgliniec 06:54 66532 Wrocław Główny
Węgliniec 10:24 66534 Wrocław Główny
Węgliniec 11:54 66536 Wrocław Główny
Wrocław Główny 04:58 66521 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 05:56 66523 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 08:35 66525 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 13:38 66529 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 14:31 66531 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 15:35 66535 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 16:48 66537 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 18:00 66539 Węgliniec
Wrocław Główny 19:35 36122 ŁUŻYCE REGIO Węgliniec z Krakow jako IR
Wrocław-Legnica (10)
Legnica 04:02 KD 69520 Jelcz Laskowice przez Wrocław
Legnica 05:00 66522 Wrocław Główny
Legnica 05:33 KD 69524 Wrocław Główny
Legnica 06:59 66530 Wrocław Główny
Legnica 18:33 KD 69544 Wrocław Główny
Wrocław Główny 15:08 66533 Legnica +1h
Wrocław Główny 16:05 KD 69533 Legnica +1h
Wrocław Główny 18:59 KD 69541 Legnica
Wrocław Główny 21:12 KD 69543 Legnica
Wrocław Główny 22:45 KD 69547 Legnica
TLK z podobna trasa
Legnica 07:22 TLK 61110 WROCŁAWIANIN Warszawa Wschodnia
Warszawa TLK 16111 WROCŁAWIANIN Legnica przez Wroclaw 20:37
Wrocław-Dresden RegionalExpress (6)
Dresden Hbf 08:09 RE 5791 Wrocław Główny
Wrocław Główny 06:35 RE 5790 Dresden
Wrocław Główny 12:35 RE 5792 Dresden
Wrocław Główny 18:35 RE 5794 Dresden
Wrocław-Trzebnica (18)
Wrocław Główny 04:31 KD 69021 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 08:18 KD 69027 Trzebnica +50min
Wrocław Główny 10:22 KD 69029 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 14:07 KD 69033 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 15:25 KD 69035 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 16:37 KD 69037 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 17:48 KD 69039 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 19:44 KD 69041 Trzebnica
Wrocław Główny 22:14 KD 69043 Trzebnica
Wrocław-Oława-Brzeg-Opole (32)
Wrocław Główny 05:33 6020 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 06:33 6022 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 07:40 6420 Kędzierzyn Koźle
Wrocław Główny 08:40 6024 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 09:33 6422 Kędzierzyn Koźle
Wrocław Główny 11:36 6424 Kędzierzyn Koźle
Wrocław Główny 12:33 6026 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 13:40 6028 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 14:40 6426 Kędzierzyn Koźle +2h15
Wrocław Główny 15:10 66046 Brzeg +43min
Wrocław Główny 15:40 6030 Opole Główne +1h20
Wrocław Główny 16:08 66048 Brzeg
Wrocław Główny 16:35 6428 Kędzierzyn Koźle
Wrocław Główny 17:40 6032 Opole Główne
Wrocław Główny 18:40 6430 Kędzierzyn Koźle
Wrocław Główny 20:40 6034 Opole Główne
Wrocław-Siechnice-Jelcz Laskowice-Opole (10)
Wrocław Główny 05:07 KD 69520 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 06:58 KD 69722 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 11:10 KD 69724 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 13:48 KD 69726 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 14:48 66728 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 15:48 66730 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 16:42 66732 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 18:45 66734 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 19:44 KD 69736 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław Główny 21:50 66738 Jelcz Laskowice
Wrocław-Wołów-Głogów-Nowa Sól-Zielona Góra (34)
Wrocław Główny 05:20 6735 Zielona Góra
Wrocław Główny 05:49 66441 Wołów +1h
Wrocław Główny 06:51 66421 Głogów +2h
Wrocław Główny 07:52 KD 69421 Wołów
Wrocław Główny 08:43 6737 Zielona Góra +3h20
Wrocław Główny 10:52 KD 69423 Wołów
Wrocław Główny 12:53 6739 Zielona Góra
Wrocław Główny 14:16 66423 Głogów
Wrocław Główny 14:52 6741 Zielona Góra
Wrocław Główny 15:22 66443 Wołów
Wrocław Główny 15:52 66425 Głogów
Wrocław Główny 16:27 66445 Wołów
Wrocław Główny 16:55 6743 Zielona Góra
Wrocław Główny 17:52 66427 Ścinawa
Wrocław Główny 18:52 66429 Głogów
Wrocław Główny 20:54 66431 Głogów
Wrocław Główny 22:56 66433 Ścinawa +1h15
Wrocław-Rawicz-Leszno (26)
Wrocław Główny 05:26 67931 Leszno
Wrocław Główny 10:27 67933 Leszno
Wrocław Główny 12:32 67935 Leszno
Wrocław Główny 13:33 67830 BARYCZ Poznań Główny
Wrocław Główny 13:59 66621 Rawicz
Wrocław Główny 14:50 67937 Poznań Główny
Wrocław Główny 15:40 67939 Leszno
Wrocław Główny 16:50 67941 Poznań Główny +4h10
Wrocław Główny 17:38 66623 Rawicz
Jelenia Góra 6720 KAMIEŃCZYK Poznań Główny w Wrocław 19:01
Wrocław Główny 19:50 66625 Rawicz +1h35
Wrocław Główny 21:05 67943 Leszno
Wrocław Główny 22:40 66627 Rawicz
Wrocław-Oleśnica-Namysłów-Kluczbork-Lubliniec (20)
Wrocław Główny 05:35 64934 Lubliniec
Wrocław Główny 06:41 60118 Kluczbork
Wrocław Główny 08:25 64936 Lubliniec
Wrocław Główny 10:35 60120 Kluczbork
Wrocław Główny 12:38 64940 Lubliniec
Wrocław Główny 14:31 60122 Kluczbork +2h
Wrocław Główny 15:47 60124 Kluczbork
Wrocław Główny 16:30 64944 Lubliniec +3h30
Wrocław Główny 18:35 60126 Kluczbork
Wrocław Główny 20:39 60128 Kluczbork
Wrocław-Wałbrzech-Jelenia Góra (12)
Wrocław Główny 05:37 66223 Wałbrzych Główny
Wrocław Główny 06:24 66225 CHOJNIK Jelenia Góra
Wrocław Główny 07:41 66227 ŁOMNICA Jelenia Góra +2h40
Wrocław Główny 10:28 7620 Jelenia Góra
Wrocław Główny 13:44 66229 Wałbrzych Główny
Kraków 36120 GALICJA Jelenia Góra do Wrocław Główny 14:58 IR
Wrocław Główny 15:40 66231 Wałbrzych Główny
Wrocław Główny 16:43 66233 Wałbrzych Główny
Wrocław Główny 17:40 66235 Wałbrzych Główny
Łódż 16122 SZKLARKA Jelenia Góra w Wrocław 18:40
Wrocław Główny 20:46 66237 Wałbrzych Główny
Wrocław Główny 22:50 66239 Wałbrzych Główny
Jelenia Góra 15:42 6720 KAMIEŃCZYK Poznań Główny 22h25 w Wrocław 19:01
Wrocław-Strzelin-Kamieniec Ząbkowicki-Kłodzko-Międzylesie-CZ (22)
Wrocław Główny 05:49 15120 NYSA Usti nad Orlici
Wrocław Główny 06:49 66321 Międzylesie
Wrocław Główny 12:45 66329 Międzylesie
Wrocław Główny 13:45 66331 Międzylesie
Wrocław Główny 14:52 66333 Kłodzko Główne
Wrocław Główny 15:45 66335 Międzylesie
Wrocław Główny 16:45 1914 GLACENSIS Pardubice hl.n. +4h30
Wrocław Główny 18:00 66337 MARIANNA ORAŃSKA Bystrzyca Kł. Przed.
Białystok 16128 SZCZELINIEC Międzylesie do Wrocław Główny 19:30 jako IR
Wrocław Główny 20:45 66339 Bystrzyca Kł. Przed.
Wrocław Główny 22:50 66341 Kłodzko Główne
Międzylesie 65114 MAMRY Olsztyn Główny, ab Rawicz IR, przez Wrocław Główny 08:44, Rawicz, Leszno, Poznan
Wrocław-Oleśnica-Twardogóra-Ostrów Wlkp. (8)
Wrocław Główny 07:37 67532 Ostrów Wlkp.
Wrocław Główny 14:15 6120 Łódź Kaliska
Wrocław Główny 16:14 67536 Ostrów Wlkp.
Kłodzko Główne 67538 SUDETY Ostrów Wlkp. w Wrocław 18:56
Łódż 16120 SUDETY Kłodzko Główne przez Wrocław Główny 10:07
Wrocław-Oleśnica-Milicz-Krotoszyn (10)
Wrocław Główny 15:14 67832 Krotoszyn
Wrocław Główny 17:32 67834 Krotoszyn
Wrocław Główny 19:39 66124 Oleśnica
Wrocław Główny 21:30 66126 Oleśnica
Wrocław Główny 22:52 66128 Oleśnica
Jelenia Góra-Lwówek Śląski (8)
Lwówek Śląski 05:56 KD 69640 Jelenia Góra +1h15
Lwówek Śląski 11:04 KD 69642 Jelenia Góra
Lwówek Śląski 16:04 KD 69644 Jelenia Góra
Lwówek Śląski 19:17 KD 69646 Jelenia Góra
Jelenia Góra 04:32 KD 69641 Lwówek Śląski
Jelenia Góra 07:40 KD 69643 Lwówek Śląski
Jelenia Góra 14:40 KD 69647 Lwówek Śląski
Jelenia Góra 17:55 KD 69649 Lwówek Śląski
Assinar:
Postagens (Atom)
